William Wragg – 2016 Parliamentary Question to the HM Treasury

The below Parliamentary question was asked by William Wragg on 2016-06-03.

To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, for what reasons the HM Treasury analysis: the long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives did not include an assessment of the potential effect on the UK economy of a potential reduction in GDP in the EU.

Mr David Gauke

The main estimates in the HM Treasury analysis are based on the EU as it is today, without further reform. The total cost of leaving is likely to be higher. If the economic benefits of reform are realised this could increase UK GDP by up to a further 4% – which equates to £2,800 for every household in the UK. With the UK outside the EU these economic reforms would be less likely to happen. So the cost of exit in terms of the potential loss of GDP would be correspondingly greater.