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The Fear

“First of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”

Unfortunately, that’s not one of my quotes, because it’s a very good one. As most of you probably know, it’s from the American President Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his inaugural address in 1933, at the very height of the Great Depression – when millions were forced into deprivation and were fearful of what the future would hold.

I quote FDR because his point is just as relevant today, when we confront what for many is the scariest challenge we could imagine: the climate emergency. According to numerous studies, a sizeable majority of young people now struggle with ‘eco-anxiety’ and are fearful about the future due to the climate emergency.

What I’m not here to do today is to tell you that everything is fine, because it isn’t. But what I do want to argue is that fear is not the most useful emotion when it comes to the climate crisis because it can paralyse us into inaction; and that there is an evidence-based case for climate optimism if we do the right things.

The Fear = doomism

But first let’s acknowledge that the Fear exists for good reason. We are already seeing the consequences of climate change: more extreme weather, rising sea levels, higher rainfall, bigger floods, extreme droughts, massive wildfires, ecological harm wiping out species, and rising impacts on the economy, the way we live, and the health and wellbeing of every human on this planet. This affects us all directly and indirectly. The impact is particularly hard on people in the countries of the Global South who are the least responsible for the emissions that are causing these effects but are hardest hit by them – which is why the fight against climate change is also a fight for social justice.

So if you’re worried about climate change, that’s OK – you are right to be so. And if you are angry about those who are primarily responsible for causing it or those who are denying it (often the same people), that’s fine too: as John Lydon, singer of the punk band the Sex Pistols, used to say: anger is an energy.

But fear tends to exhaust us rather than energise. And what we sometimes hear from sections of the media, influencers, some well-intentioned campaigners and politicians is all focussed on The Fear. The Fear that we’re running out of time. The Fear that what we’re doing is never going to be enough. The ultimate Fear, that humanity is doomed.

In my view this climate doomism is almost as dangerous as climate denial. Indeed doomism might even be the new denial. And it’s equally misplaced. It’s not justified by the facts. And it risks leading to the wrong outcome: inaction.

The evidence: the case for confidence

So let me give you some evidence to combat this doomism: the case for confidence.

My case for climate optimism is simple: we know what the problem is; we know what we have to do to solve it; we have started to do it; and if we keep on doing it we will succeed – not just in ending the climate emergency but in building a better world too.

We know what the problem is: the massive increase in greenhouse gas emissions since the start of the industrial revolution is doing exactly what the science predicts – warming the planet and making our climate more extreme.

We know what we have to do to solve this problem. The solutions are technically quite simple. First, we need to reduce and as far as possible stop entirely the emissions of carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gases that are causing the climate to change: what the experts call mitigation. And second, we need to adapt our infrastructure, our economies and our lifestyles so we can live safely, sustainably and well in a climate-changed world. Because even if all greenhouse gas emissions magically stopped at midnight tonight, some climate change has already happened and will go on happening as a result of all the carbon already released into the atmosphere over the last decades.

And we are starting to do these things.

Mitigation

Let me start with mitigation. Governments around the world are taking action to reduce their national emissions, including here, where successive UK governments have shown strong leadership. The 2008 Climate Change Act was the first time a major economy set legal limits to reduce its own emissions. In 2019 the UK became the first major economy to pass laws to end its contribution to global warming by getting to Net Zero by 2050.

Just passing laws of course doesn’t make it so. But we are starting to do the things we need to do to get there. Take energy generation, which has historically been one of the biggest drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. In 1991 only 2% of the UK’s electricity came from renewable sources: wind, solar, hydro and bioenergy. By last year (2022), nearly half (43%) of our electricity came from those sources. And if you include nuclear energy, which accounts for a further 16% of our electricity, the majority of our power is now coming from low or no carbon sources. Which is why the National Grid say that the UK is well on its way to creating an electricity system that’s wholly based on renewable and carbon-free sources by the 2050 target.

Putin’s war in Ukraine has inadvertently given this move to sustainable domestically-generated energy a massive push, because no-one in Europe now wants to be dependent on Russian gas.

Science and innovation are helping us too. Last month US scientists announced a breakthrough in the race to create nuclear fusion, which is a potential source of near-limitless clean energy. For the first time in an experiment they produced more energy from a fusion reaction than they put in to generate it.

Now if this is to power our world in future, it will need massive scaling up: the experiment in question lasted nanoseconds and produced just about enough energy to boil seven kettles. Building a fusion machine that can produce industrial quantities of power and run constantly is a massive technical challenge. But because it can be done, and because it will be so beneficial if it is, it almost certainly now will be done. And the UK will have a part in that: the UK government has announced that the West Burton power station site in Nottinghamshire will be the home of the UK’s first prototype fusion energy plant.

Adaptation

Everyone talks about net zero, and I just have. That’s important: the lower our carbon and other emissions, the lower the extent and rate of climate change. But the other side of the climate coin – adaptation to make us more resilient in a climate changed world – is just as important.

And until recently adaptation has tended to be the Cinderella of climate – getting less attention than mitigation. The good news is that is now starting to change.

Here in the UK more and more infrastructure providers and utilities – Network Rail, National Highways, the energy providers and the water companies for example – all now have programmes to adapt their own networks and operating arrangements to make them more resilient to the impacts of the changing climate.

Meanwhile internationally we saw a major step forward on adaptation at COP27, the UN climate change summit in Egypt last month. This was the agreement on a new Loss and Damage Fund that will help nations most impacted by climate change cope with the damage that has happened already and adapt to be more resilient in future.

This won’t fix any of those problems immediately. It will only mean anything if it’s actually delivered, and you can argue about how much money is needed to get the job done. But the agreement matters in itself, because it signals that the rich nations recognise that they have a particular responsibility to the rest of the world and that they need to show solidarity with the developing nations and back their rhetoric with resources. And that matters because the rebuilding of trust between rich and poor countries that this agreement can help achieve will make it much more likely that we sustain the collective international commitment we need to tackle the climate emergency successfully.

The Environment Agency is a major player on climate

The Environment Agency which I lead is playing a central part in tackling the climate emergency. We have put it at the heart of everything we do.

Our strategy, EA 2025, which drives all our work, has three goals: a nation resilient to climate change; healthy air, land and water; and green growth and a sustainable future. The common theme that runs through them all is the climate emergency. Tackle it successfully, and we will achieve all those goals. Fail and we will fail on all.

The EA plays a major role in mitigation. We regulate most of the greenhouse gas emitters in this country, and have cut emissions from the sites we regulate by 50% since 2010. We run the UK Emissions Trading Scheme, which limits and will progressively reduce the emissions that airlines, steel works and other major sources of carbon are allowed to make.

We are trying to walk the walk ourselves with our commitment to make the Environment Agency and the whole of our supply chain Net Zero by 2030. That has meant we are rethinking much of what we do – for example using hydrogen vehicles to move around, low carbon concrete or better still natural flood management (tree planting etc) for flood defences. We are even using our own pension fund to influence investors to put their money into sustainable businesses and move it out of carbon.

The EA also plays a major role in adaptation. We build and maintain most of the country’s flood defences: that is helping ensure that communities are protected in the face of the higher tides and more violent rainfall that climate change is generating. And those defences are working, because even as we’ve seen record-breaking rainfall and river heights over the last few years, we’ve seen fewer and fewer homes and businesses suffering the trauma of flooding.

We work with the water companies and other water users to reduce the risk of another impact of the changing climate – severe drought – by finding ways in which they can take less water from the environment and use it more efficiently.

And in our role as a statutory consultee on all major planning decisions, we are helping design places for people to live and work which are not just more resilient to the effects of climate change (example: if you have to build homes in a flood plain, put the garage on the ground floor but the people on the first floor) but are also better places to live, both for the people and the wildlife, because we try to design in as much blue and green infrastructure – rivers, lakes, trees and grass to you and me – as we can.

There’s an important point there that I alluded to earlier: which is that if we tackle the climate emergency right, and treat it not just as an existential risk but as a massive opportunity, we can actually build a better world: one in which we make cities which don’t just generate less carbon or which are just more resilient to the changed climate but are also better places to live; in which we invent new technologies that don’t just help mitigate and adapt but also help nature recover from the battering we’ve given it over the last few decades and thrive; in which we find new ways to run successful economies so there is sustainable, inclusive growth for everyone; and in which by ending the impacts of climate change on the weakest and helping them recover from things which they did not cause, we help deliver justice for all.

UEA is a player too

You here in the University of East Anglia are also a major player on all those things because of your own outstanding work on climate, and I want to recognise that and thank you for it.

I know that UEA was one of the early pioneers of climate research and that you’ve been producing world class analysis for nearly 50 years now. I know that the Climatic Research Unit and the Tyndall Centre here have both broken new ground in understanding what is actually happening to our climate, what that means for society, and how best to address those consequences. All that is giving us News We Can Use – the best of all academic research.

I also know – and here I feel particular solidarity with you – that that endeavour hasn’t been consequence-free, and that you have been the subject of aggressive targeting by climate deniers and others who don’t like the clarity or the consequence of your messaging. To which I can only say: let’s stick together, keep going, follow the evidence and have the courage of our convictions.

The ingredients for success: none of us is as good as all of us

But it’s not enough of course for UEA, the Environment Agency or the UK government to be taking action on climate on our own. The climate emergency is a textbook example of a problem that can only be successfully dealt with if everyone takes action, not just in this country but around the world.

And here too I see cause for optimism, because that is pretty much what is now happening. Think about the things which have to be true in order to tackle the climate emergency successfully.

There needs to be international consensus on the need for action and on what action should be taken, and a mechanism to make sure it actually happens. There is: the United Nations COP process. Is it perfect? No. Is it moving as far and as fast as we’d all like? No. But is it a necessary condition of success, and is it making progress in the right direction? Yes and yes.

There needs to be national action by individual governments all around the world. And increasingly there is – not least because ordinary people, in the developing world even more than in the rich west, are feeling the impacts of climate change on their own lives and livelihoods and demanding that their governments take that action. I’ve spent over forty years working with politicians around the world, and one thing that is true in all countries – democratic or not – is that politicians pay attention to what the public want, because giving it to them is ultimately the best way of staying in office.

There needs to be action by business, both because businesses are a large source of the problem and because they are a key ingredient of the solution: most of the money in the world, as well as a lot of the innovation, both of which are critical for success – is found in the private sector. And over the last few years we’ve seen more and more businesses adapt what they do and how they do it in ways which are helping tackle the climate emergency. In some cases that’s happening because it’s the right thing to do, in others because it’s the smart thing to do: businesses which innovate, get out of carbon and don’t trash the planet will ultimately have stronger futures and better profits than those that don’t.

And critically there needs to be action by each of us as individuals, because in what we do in our daily lives we are all part of the problem and so all part of the solution. And here too in the last few years we are seeing people all over the world, not just the young or privileged western elites, take action to change how they live and the impact they have on the planet – whether by using low emission vehicles or public transport, insulating their homes, sharing or freecycling possessions, or lobbying their own governments to take action.

The spearhead of this movement is the new generation of adults who are now in their twenties or thirties. And these are the people – and I may be looking at some of them right now – who over the next two critical decades will be running the country, leading major organisations, or shaping public opinion. That too gives me confidence that the right decisions will get made and that we will indeed tackle the climate emergency and come out on the other side with a better world.

The EA: environment plus agency

There is no free lunch, so let me conclude with a brief commercial for the Environment Agency. Our job is to create a better place. We are always looking for talented people who have a passionate commitment to that goal. There is a lot of that talent and commitment in this room, and in UEA more widely.

So if you are interested in building a better world, think about joining us. If you are interested in the environment, the clue is in the first word of our name. The other clue is the second word – agency. If you actually want some, and you want to make a real difference to the real world, please also think about joining us. Because ultimately the best cure for fear is agency – taking back control, to coin a phrase.

I can do no better than end with a quotation from Mae Jemison, who was the first African American woman to travel into space, which she did as a mission specialist on the US Space Shuttle Endeavour:

“Don’t let anyone rob you of your imagination, your creativity, or your curiosity. It’s your place in the world; it’s your life. Go on and do all you can with it, and make it the life you want to live.”