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  • Lord Freud – 2013 Speech on Universal Credit

    lordfreud

    Below is the text of the speech made by Lord Freud to the Local Government Association on 12th December 2013.

    Good morning, it’s a pleasure to be here.

    First of all I want to thank the LGA for their help to ensure that local support services will be a firm part of Universal Credit.

    I hope you have all seen the latest update on the Local Support Service Framework (LSSF) that was published last week.

    It is the product of very close working between DWP and local government and lays the groundwork for our future work in partnership.

    I will touch on the LSSF in more detail later on in my speech, but first I want to take a moment to reflect on Universal Credit (UC).

    Universal Credit is no less than a revolution in our benefits system. Where successive governments have applied patches and tweaks, we are bringing in an overhaul. And it is long overdue.

    The benefits system we have today was designed to reflect society in the mid-20th century.

    It pays little regard to the way that society has changed, from the changing roles of women in the workplace, and the increasing importance of part-time work, to the overall flexibility of the modern labour force.

    The idea behind Universal credit – and I am delighted to say we are already seeing this idea bear fruit in the pathfinder areas – is to create a much simpler and more flexible system that makes work pay.

    Universal Credit successfully started rolling out in April of this year – 6 months ahead of schedule – in the Greater Manchester area.

    We now have live service in 7 areas across the country, and this will grow to 10 areas by spring 2014, giving Universal Credit a national footprint.

    And last week we set out the next steps for Universal Credit which build on our firm commitment to expand this programme in a safe and controlled manner.

    Too many government – and private sector – projects fail because of a big bang approach. Governments in the past and across the world have built systems, announced a launch, and watched as the wheels fell off.

    We have been clear that Universal Credit will break that mould and progress safely and securely.

    As I said, by spring, Universal Credit will have live service in 10 areas. From next summer we will progressively start to take claims for Universal Credit from couples and, in the autumn, from families.

    Once safely tested in the 10 live Universal Credit areas, we will also expand the roll-out to cover more of the north-west of England.

    These steps continue our progressive approach – test, learn, implement – as we deliver this programme.

    Our current planning assumption is that the Universal Credit service will be fully available in each part of Great Britain during 2016, having closed down new claims to the benefits it replaced – including working age Housing Benefit; with the majority of the remaining legacy caseload moving to Universal Credit during 2016 and 2017.

    I would like to reassure you again that we will maintain the level of funding required to administer housing benefit in 2014/15.

    Clearly last week’s announcement of our rollout plans will mean we’ll need to take a close look, with LGA colleagues, at 2015/16 funding.

    We’ll need to make sure we take account of the position for those who’ve gone live with Universal Credit, and those who are yet to do so

    We will also use the progressive expansion of Universal Credit over the next few years to carefully test how Universal Credit works in practice.

    There will be three aspects to this testing.

    First: we will look at how staff and claimants interact with the Universal Credit policy and systems on the ground. We are already getting some of this learning in the pathfinder:

    86% felt the advice and support they were offered by their adviser matched their personal needs and circumstances

    92% said they were being encouraged to find work or to increase the amount they are working

    2/3rds agreed it provided better financial incentives to work.

    Second: we will look to do more rigorous econometric testing to show the effect that UC has on our key outcome measure – increasing employment levels.

     

    And third: we will test how Universal Credit works for and interacts with the most vulnerable groups in our society, and how local support services can work effectively.

     

    We already have some evidence to suggest that many claimants will adapt well to the new system.

     

    Evaluation from the Pathfinder – which mainly involves more straight-forward jobseekers at present – shows:

     

    90% of claims are online

    78% of those getting monthly payments were confident they could budget over the month

    But while we expect that many people should be able to handle the changes well – we must ensure that help is there for those who can’t, or need support at first.

     

    And that is where the relationship between DWP and local authorities is so important.

     

    One of the areas where we have worked incredibly closely with local authorities is on the Local Support Service Framework. We published the first version in February this year and just last week we published an updated document – the Local Support Service: update and trialling plan.

     

    This sets out how we can work together over the course of the next year to test and trial the arrangements and processes needed to make local support service work.

    We want to work closely with you to test different arrangements for partnership working, financial management and the effective delivery of front line services.

    We will soon come forward with more details of how you can get involved in this testing and trialling work and I hope many of you will take up that opportunity.

    But the trialling and testing doesn’t just begin with the publication of the LSSF. As many of you know there is already much good work going on.

    Useful testing and trialling has begun with the benefit cap, where we are seeing how councils can link with Jobcentre Plus and partners to give the right support.

    Some of the innovative approaches have really impressed me.

    In Croydon, Jobcentre Plus staff have been working with council staff. Joint teams based in the council offices are helping residents together.

    This working together means that claimants are no longer pushed from pillar to post – but receive the help they need in once place.

    And take the Digital Deal: I visited one of our pilot sites last month, A2Dominion, a housing association in Queens Park. I was very pleased with their work to get residents not only online, but confident and comfortable in doing so.

    It is this kind of co-operation – that puts the claimant at the centre of the experience – which I am keen to replicate across the whole Universal Credit landscape.

    It is a far better use of resources – and it leads to far better results.

    We have also seen interesting examples from the local authority led pilots.

    For example: Birmingham City Council wanted to move to a digital by default service for rent management as well as address problems with a number of new tenants who were defaulting on their rent and subsequently losing their tenancy.

    They have reviewed the tenant’s journey, introduced a new digital log book, and identified how to nudge and change people’s behaviour.

    This has led to both a significant reduction in the level of arrears among new tenants – approximately a 17% reduction at 12 weeks – and administrative savings of £61,000 by publishing online rather than in print.

    And I was pleased to hear that in North Dorset Council the job clubs they have set up as part of the local authority led pilots have been a success.

    Unemployment in the area has fallen by 13% and they are convinced the job clubs have had a major impact in this.

    So, we have seen some really interesting lessons from these pilots already, but there is more I am keen to learn as we work on the evaluations.

    In particular I want to get a more concrete picture of what Local Authorities have found works well and – crucially – what they have found doesn’t work so well in providing people with support.

    And we are also seeing interesting lessons from the Direct Payment Demonstration Projects.

    The Direct Payment Demonstration Projects revealed that many landlords just don’t know their tenants as well as they could.

    Direct payments have opened the door not just to help with managing rent – but also to wider social problems that were out of sight.

    Housing associations and councils have also been clear about the need for extra tenant support and data sharing. These are areas we are looking at right now.

    The Direct Payment Demonstration Projects are coming to an end very shortly, but I’m pleased to say that more than half of the organisations involved have decided to leave their tenants on direct payment, and at least one of the landlords has decided to move all of their working age tenants onto a direct payment arrangement.

    Getting used to direct payments is crucial in preparing claimants for a seamless transition into work and will allow landlords an opportunity to increase their rent collection from this group of claimants in a phased and managed way.

    It makes a lot of sense, therefore, for local authorities and social landlords to consider encouraging those who will not need support to move onto Housing Benefit direct payments ahead of Universal Credit.

    Before I finish, I would like to touch on the announcement made in last week’s Autumn Statement about the move to a Single Fraud Investigation Service.

    The Single Fraud Investigation Service will be introduced as a single organisation within the Fraud and Error Services Team in DWP with implementation taking place in a phased approach from October 2014 – March 2016.

    This positive next step builds on the great work done by the local authority, DWP, and HMRC pilot sites and will deliver a nationally flexible fraud investigation service covering the totality of welfare benefit fraud, including Housing Benefit and Tax Credits.

    We will also work closely with local government, as part of a joint working group, to ensure that we continue to maintain close relationships and share data where permissible, on cases of joint interest, for example Tenancy Fraud.

    In addition DCLG and DWP have agreed a £16.6m funding package to support local authorities in England to help local government’s fight against fraud and protect taxpayers’ money.

    The newly appointed minister at DCLG, Baroness Stowell, gave a speech on Tuesday setting out further details on this. Similar discussions have taken place between DWP and the devolved administrations

    As we step into 2014, the hard work of the last year will continue.

    I want you to know we are keen to maintain the strong relationship that we have with local authorities and all the organisations we’ve been working with, and for you to build and maintain partnerships in your communities.

    If you want to be involved in testing and trialling to prepare for Universal Credit then don’t hesitate to start activities in your area, or to let us know that you want to take part.

    This trialling and testing is absolutely vital to the delivery of welfare reform, and with your input we can make sure that we continue to roll out Universal Credit in a safe and controlled manner.

  • Lord Freud – 2013 Speech on Welfare Reform

    lordfreud

    Below is the text of the speech made by the Work and Pensions Minister, Lord Freud, on 2nd October 2013.

    Good morning, it’s a pleasure to be here.

    When I spoke to you in this same town a year ago, I gave an overview of the changes that were set to come in during 2013 and spoke about the crucial role for local authorities in delivering welfare reform.

    It’s been quite a year. The hard work of many of the people here today has been instrumental in enabling the introduction of genuinely significant reforms: Universal Credit, the benefit cap, and Personal Independence Payment to name but a few.

    I want to use my time today to remind you why we are bringing these changes in, to update you on their progress, and, wherever I can, to look ahead to the future.

    Let me start with the most significant of those changes I mentioned – the introduction of Universal Credit. On the 29 April of this year, the first ever claim to Universal Credit was made in Ashton Under Lyne.

    Since then thousands of payments have been made, and thousands more will be made as progressive national roll out begins later this month.

    To illustrate why Universal Credit is so significant, I want to reflect for a moment on the history of the area we are in now.

    This area is, of course, no stranger to great change. Credited with being the home of the industrial revolution, it was at the heart of a transformation that had hugely positive consequences, but that also threw up a host of new social challenges.

    Beveridge’s five giant evils of disease, ignorance, squalor, idleness and want were in part a product of this new industrial age. And from their identification, of course, came the birth of the modern welfare state.

    But just as government was putting the finishing touches to Beveridge’s vision in the mid-20th Century, it was already finding itself behind the curve.

    Postwar society was already changing – and with gathering speed.

    Women began entering the workforce in much greater numbers. Full-time, ‘jobs for life’ became a thing of the past, while part-time, flexible work became the norm for many.

    And the result? We found that a welfare system built to deal with 1940’s society was no longer able to deliver the support that people needed in a modern, flexible labour market.

    For many people, taking work became almost a waste of time because of the way their benefits were withdrawn. That was if they could understand the horrendous complexity of the system in the first place.

    Successive governments recognised elements of this challenge, and introduced individual ‘fixes’ to try to deal with it.

    But often these fixes created as many problems as they solved.

    Tax Credits are a good example: a laudable principle – making work pay – failed to really deliver in practice because it was bolted onto the pre-existing system, making things incredibly complex.

    Universal Credit is different. It is based on a ‘first principles’ approach to the welfare system, a fundamental overhaul rather than another tweak or fix.

    It creates a simple system, one that makes work pay at all hours and – most crucially – one that is flexible and responsive to a modern labour force.

    Employers themselves are recognising that universal credit will bring much needed flexibility. Let me read you a quote from a Recruitment Hub Manager at B&Q:

    One of our employees, Vicky, who has caring responsibilities, has until now only been able to work 16 hours a week due to how her benefits would have been negatively affected if she had accepted more hours offered by B&Q. With the introduction of Universal Credit she’ll have the opportunity to flex up her hours either on an adhoc or permanent basis and earn more without losing all of her Universal Credit.

    And here is Phil Eckersley, Managing Director of ‘Home Instead Senior Care’ in Wigan:

    Universal Credit will have a direct positive effect on my business. It will enable jobseekers and employees to work as much as they wish around their family and dependents’ commitments.

    Of course such a fundamental change cannot be introduced overnight. We have been really clear about our commitment to introducing Universal Credit in a safe and controlled manner.

    That’s why we started with a Pathfinder approach from earlier this year. And that’s why later this month we will begin the progressive national roll-out of Universal Credit as we expand to a further six Jobcentres.

    We are also making significant progress in rolling out the wider elements which are critical to driving cultural change.

    For example the new claimant commitment – which more firmly sets out claimants’ responsibilities – will be rolled out nationally from October, and we are already starting to roll out improved digital services across Jobcentre Plus.

    So momentum is building, and this is an exciting time.

    But I am also acutely aware that if Universal Credit is to work, it must work for the most vulnerable people.

    I am absolutely determined that when more vulnerable claimants come onto Universal Credit we are ready to provide them with the support that they need.

    That is why the Local Support Services Framework is so important. It is about how we – working with local authorities – can ensure that we are ready to deal with the additional or growing support needs that come from the introduction of Universal Credit.

    To do this, we are putting a really strong emphasis on local partnerships between Jobcentre Plus district managers, local authorities and housing and charity sector providers.

    We will be publishing an update to the Framework shortly, which will include information on testing and trialling. The testing and trialling will include aspects of the financial model and incentive structure, as well as exploring use of the European Social Fund as a potential funding stream.

    We will also be testing the development of Personal Budgeting Support initiatives. This trialling is so important because it allows us to include lessons learned into the next iteration of the framework.

    The updated Framework will also provide an update on key points of progress and agreement since the publication of the Framework in February. We then plan to issue a more comprehensive version of the Framework in autumn 2014, to inform local authority budgeting timetables for 2015 to 2016.

    As many of you will be aware, the local authority led pilots are already testing elements of this framework, by introducing support services designed specifically to best suit local needs.

    For example I’ve heard about how Lewisham Council in South London has developed a structured triage approach to identify vulnerable people who may require additional support with the transition to Universal Credit.

    Claimants are contacted over the phone to discuss their skills and experience across the financial, digital, housing and employment spheres.

    Scores are then assigned to the claimants answers. If they are considered ‘vulnerable’ a further support appointment will be triggered, where claimants are provided with tailored support plans and referred for specialist help where needed.

    But when we talk about vulnerable claimants, I am aware that there are some concerns about the introduction of Direct Payments.

    We must not lose sight of why this change is so important though. A driving principle behind Universal Credit is that the transition between being out of work and in work should be straightforward; people should not be scared of taking work.

    Monthly housing costs paid directly to claimants are a key step to breaking down that barrier, as they reflect the way that the large majority of people are paid in work.

    The Direct Payments Demonstration Projects are showing us what support people will need to make the transition to Direct Payments and what safeguards will need to be in place.

    Nonetheless, we are alive to the concerns that some have had. As a result, we have developed a package of safeguards to protect landlords, including alternative payment arrangements for those with the greatest need and an automatic trigger point should claimants accrue arrears of up to two months’ rent.

    We are also working on an early warning trigger should one month’s worth of rent accrue through persistent underpayment.

    This gives us the optimum balance between empowering claimants to take control of their finances and minimising unnecessary risk for landlords.

    It is still early days, of course, but initial results from the Demonstration Projects are encouraging. Figures from May 2013 show that the average rent collection rate is 94%.

    I am keen that, as we move forward with this, we will continue to work with landlords in particular on preparing people for these changes. As part of this I hope that we will see some people moving on to Direct Payments before they move on to Universal Credit, so that they take that additional step towards work readiness early on.

    Another of the big changes we have seen in the last year is the introduction of the benefit cap – which has now been rolled-out across the UK.

    The introduction of the benefit cap has been a great example of how government and local authorities can work together to deliver reform. For this, I would like to offer a candid and genuine thank you to local authority staff.

    The implementation of the cap highlights the positives of a progressive roll-out. It was introduced in April 2013 in four local authorities; then in two tranches over the summer and has now been successfully rolled out across the country.

    The implementation approach was agreed with the Local Authority Association Steering Group. We agreed that lessons learned from phased rollout should influence the national approach. It did and we therefore agreed to manage delivery over ten weeks in two tranches.

    We also gave local authorities low volumes in the first week so they could check all systems and processes worked; and we supported them through best practise events attended by hundreds of local authority staff. It’s been a steady and ultimately successful approach.

    And we continue to work together to deliver the changes this policy is intended to create. For example I have been to Croydon where the local authority and DWP work side by side in the same building offering employment, housing and budgeting support.

    It is public service at its best; working together to change lives for the better.

    It is worth noting that since claimants were notified of the benefit cap in April 2012 over 15,000 claimants identified as living in potentially capped households have moved into work.

    Indeed, research findings show that, of those aware that they were affected by the benefit cap, almost half took action in response, with the large majority of them either looking for work or undertaking job-related activities.

    Like I said, we mustn’t lose sight of why these reforms are so important and I think these early results show the real significance of this policy.

    And to continue the theme of cross government working, let me also update you on the progress of the Single Fraud Investigation Service pilots.

    This is another example of smart working across central and local government to fully integrate policies and procedures to deliver a single service that investigates the totality of welfare fraud. Four pilots went live last November, with several more to follow this year.

    Several colleagues have commended the working relationships and the sharing of expertise that has enabled the pilots to operate well.

    This collaborative working led to the first prosecution of a case dealt with by the SFIS pilot earlier this year. On the 18th June a woman from Hillingdon was successfully convicted of fraudulently receiving an overpayment of over £13,000.

    However, although the pilots have demonstrated the real positives of partnership working they have also identified some of the limitations of the current approach.

    For example there have been clear challenges where people have been working across multiple locations, under different managers and with different terms and conditions.

    These findings have informed the next stage of the process, which will explore how best SFIS should move forward as an integrated organisation.

    But let me assure you that as we take this work forward we will continue to fully engage with local government representatives, local authorities, HMRC and our key stakeholders at every step of the way.

    This is a period of great change for all of our people and we want to work closely with you to minimise the impacts that any transition might have.

    As you will all be aware we have also introduced the removal of the spare room subsidy this year. I recognise the hard work that all local authorities are undertaking to deliver this important policy.

    As with all our reforms, we are gathering evidence, learning and sharing best practice. We recently responded to concerns from the sector by increasing in-year funding for local authorities by £35 million to help support those affected to navigate the transition to the new arrangements.

    That includes a £20 million contingency fund, which will provide extra support to local authorities who can demonstrate they are supporting their tenants to make the long term positive changes we’re all looking for.

    I have been heartened by many of the innovative solutions I’ve seen and urge you all to continue this crucial work.

    So, it has been a challenging year, but a very significant one.

    We have introduced a number of far-reaching social reforms, based firmly on the principles of incrementalism, testing and learning, and partnership working.

    And these will continue to be our watchwords in the months and years ahead.

    It is my firm belief that it is only through the application of these principles that will we be successful in achieving our ultimate aim – the delivery of a welfare state fit for today’s society.

    And I look forward to continuing to work with you on making that a reality.

  • Lord Freud – 2013 Speech on Universal Credit

    lordfreud

    Below is the text of a speech made by Lord Freud on 28th January 2013.

    I am very pleased to be with you today – and for the opportunity to update you all on our vision for Universal Credit and on the progress of our wider welfare reforms.

    But first let me set the context for Universal Credit.

    Universal Credit will simplify the benefit system and tackle welfare dependency by making work pay.

    It will reward people who go back to work by ensuring they are better off in work than on benefits. In fact, around 300,000 people will move into work as a result of Universal Credit. Three million families will be better off by around £168 per month.

    The majority – 75 per cent – will come from the bottom two fifths of the income scale and transitional protection means no-one loses out by moving over to the new system.

    As well as improving financial incentives, Universal Credit will offer seamless support for people making the transition into work, making it easier to understand the effect on their income and bringing an end to an absurd situation where a claimant’s benefit stops as soon as they start work.

    There will be an early roll out of Universal Credit (the Pathfinder) in April 2013 in the North West to test the new system with local authorities, employers and claimants in a live environment. This will be a gradual process to ensure we get it right.

    The programme will roll-out nationally from October 2013. It will be introduced in stages – as is right and appropriate for such a large programme.

    We will pay Universal Credit monthly to reflect the fact that 75% of people in work are paid that way. The system will be designed around the patterns of working life, but we will make sure people who may struggle, don’t fall through the cracks.

    Universal Credit is being designed as an online service, where people can make a claim and report changes just as they do with online banking – for many people this will be more convenient.

    Digital services are already an integral part everyday life. Around 78 per cent of working age benefit claimants already use the internet – 48 per cent of those say they log on every day – many to search for jobs online.

    But we know not everyone will be able to use online services. And so we are making sure that there will still be face to face and telephone support in place – the important difference is that this support will be geared towards helping people to use the online services in the future.

    There is no doubt in my mind that Universal Credit will dramatically change the lives of millions of people in this country for the better by helping them to become financially and digitally able.

    The new system will mean that a claimant’s experience of receiving Universal Credit will be brought into line with the world of work.

    This is a huge change from the outdated and overburdened system we currently have and we will need to take the time to do it properly and put in the proper resources.

    That’s why the work we are doing in partnership with the local authority associations on a local support services framework is so important. The framework will ensure effective local partnerships are put in place to help claimants budget and get online.

    Since last summer we have been testing the type of support that we may need through twelve Local Authority-led Pilots. In addition, from April four local authorities Oldham, Wigan Warrington and Tameside will take the lead in supporting claimants in the Pathfinder areas of Greater Manchester and Cheshire. These authorities have already been highly proactive ahead of the pathfinder going live in April. They are currently setting up training courses for claimants who need help getting online, and installing computers into community centres and working with housing associations (in Wigan) to extend online accessibility for local residents.

    We are also looking at how banks and credit unions can offer suitable financial products. For example, budgeting accounts (sometimes knows as “jam jar” accounts) so that claimants can budget and put by sums of money each month to pay their rent and household bills.

    Around 4.2 million DWP claimants already have a bank account. However, historically some people on a low income have experienced difficulties in accessing and using banking products, often coming up against disproportionate penalties charges.

    For Universal Credit we want to ensure as a minimum that claimants have access to an account such as a Basic Bank Account with standing order and direct debit facilities, which are safe and secure.

    Alongside new banking products we will ensure vulnerable claimants such as people with debt problems, or those with poor numeracy skills are given practical support at the onset of their claim.

    In practice this will mean that someone with debts may be referred to a debt advisory service for budgeting advice and someone who is not able to navigate the web, will be offered face to face or telephone support to help them make a claim for Universal Credit.

    These bespoke services will be led through Local Authorities and other local organisations. As a result we expect many vulnerable claimants to become both financially responsible and digitally able. This will open up a wealth of new opportunities because of improved computer skills, such as new jobs through online job searches, better buying power and discounted utility bills through better banking facilities and access to reputable credit.

    These are the key interconnecting features that will ensure a smooth and successful transition onto Universal Credit.

    However, we recognise that there will always be some hard cases. Where this is the case vulnerable claimants could be made an exception to the payment rules for a period of time. Budgeting support will also be made available to support these individuals so that they can make a successful transition over time to the Universal Credit standard monthly payment.

    If this is the case we will consider three levels of interventions.

    Firstly we will look at a claimant’s ability to pay housing costs – in full and on time. Secondly we will consider whether monthly payments are suitable. And finally we will look at whether it’s appropriate for a split payment to be made to that household.

    It will not however necessarily be the case that all three interventions will be put in place at any one time – that will depend on each person’s individual circumstances.

    Much of our rules around alternative payment arrangements will fall from the work we are already doing in the six demonstration projects areas across England, Scotland and Wales to test the support needed for people to make rent payments direct, and to ensure the financial position of landlords is protected.

    Paying housing costs direct is an integral part of Universal Credit and an important way of helping people to manage their own finances and become more independent.

    But I know there is some concern that the switch may cause a ‘mass’ of claimants to fall into arrears at the onset. But that’s not going to be the case. The fact is that claimant transition will be gradual over a four year period. There will be no big bang effect and we do not expect landlords to suffer sudden losses of income.

    Early findings from the demonstration projects show the majority of people are meeting their rent payments in full and on time. Over the first four months, 6,220 social tenants were paid their housing benefit directly and rent collection rates stood at 92%.

    We will continue to test different rent arrears “trigger” levels so if a tenant falls behind on their rent, payment will switch back direct to the landlord and additional support will be offered to the tenant.

    Of course Universal Credit is not the only reform we are making.

    Last year marked major milestones in reforming Britain’s welfare system, and 2013 will be no different.

    This year is about making reform a reality.

    And we are on track to do so:

    Universal Credit, starting with a pathfinder – in April

    Personal Independence Payment also starting to roll out from April

    The implementation of the Benefit Cap – from April

    Localising elements of the Social Fund – from April.

    To name just a few of the programmes the Government is implementing.

    This change cannot come soon enough.

  • Lord Freud – 2011 Speech on Reforming Welfare

    lordfreud

    Below is the text of the speech made by Lord Freud in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 6th December 2011.

    My session this morning is on the welfare revolution.

    And it really is a revolution. There is an awful lot going on at the moment.

    The Work Programme is up and running, helping long term unemployed people find sustainable work.

    The Sickness Absence Review was published a couple of weeks ago and we are working hard on the Government’s response.

    Disabled people’s benefits are being reformed to make them fairer, more accurate and easier to tailor to individual need.

    But today, I don’t want to talk about any of that.

    Today, I want to focus on what’s at the heart of the welfare revolution – the Universal Credit – which we plan to introduce from October 2013.

    This is a new income replacement benefit that will support people both in and out of work.

    It will replace the complex array of benefits currently paid to people with little or no income with just one payment.

    It will be simpler to claim, easier to understand and administer and more effective and responsive than its predecessors.

    We are working on a real time information system that will mean we are able to find out how much people are earning and readjust their Universal Credit payment accordingly. This is better for people whose earnings fluctuate and will help to reduce fraud.

    Most importantly of all people will know what they are entitled to.

    We will withdraw Universal Credit at a steady rate as people start to earn more money.

    This means if someone takes a job or increases the hours they work they will be able to work out exactly how it will affect their benefits – and see for themselves that they will be better off in work.

    Today’s welfare system is a complicated mixture of benefits that have been added together, piled one on the other in a piecemeal way, as successive governments have sought to address different needs.

    It hasn’t been improved so much as extended and stretched beyond any relevance to its original intention.

    And what we’ve ended up with is unintended consequences, rules so complex that the civil servants administering them struggle to understand them and people trapped in welfare dependency are unable to find a way out of the system and get back on their feet.

    This is not what Beveridge intended.

    The introduction of Universal Credit will remove the rules and regulations that prevent people from getting back into work quickly.

    It will take the welfare state back to first principles.

    We want a welfare system that provides financial support for those unable to work – that goes without saying.

    But for those who can work we want a system that encourages a return to employment as quickly as possible.

    That’s how welfare support should work.

    But today’s system barely works at all.

    Let me take you through some of the vagaries of the current system.

    The current Jobseeker’s Allowance system means you need to work 16 hours or more to come off benefit and see a real increase in your income.

    However, for those remaining on benefit and working less than 16 hours, anything they earn over £5 if they are a single person, slightly more if they are a lone parent or disabled, will result in their benefit being reduced pound for pound.

    This means someone over 25 can’t work for even one full hour per week at minimum wage without seeing an instantaneous fall in benefits.

    If someone does find work for more than 16 hours per week but it is low paid they may be entitled to tax credits.

    But they’d need to end their benefit claim and submit a new claim for tax credits.

    The benefits system and the tax credit system don’t interact with each other.

    So people trying to leave benefits find their benefit income stops instantly but there can be a long wait before tax credit payments start.

    This gap in household income can be catastrophic for family finances.

    It encourages people either to retreat back into the benefits system or worse, never try to leave.

    Universal Credit deals with this issue.

    The tax credit and benefit systems are brought together so there’s no need to move between different systems.

    When someone does take a job the Universal Credit payment is tapered off at a steady rate so there’s no sudden loss of benefits.

    There’s no catastrophic drop of income.

    And there’s no 16 hour cliff edge, the Universal Credit will relate to the actual amount someone earns not disappear at an arbitrary number of hours.

    The 16 hour rule has also had an impact on childcare support.

    Under the old rules working parents could not claim help with registered childcare unless they worked more than 16 hours per week.

    For lone parents in particular this made it particularly difficult to start to move into work.

    Universal Credit deals with this issue.

    We want to remove these barriers so parents can begin a gradual return to work.

    Therefore, under Universal Credit, support for the costs of childcare will be available to all lone parents and couples, where both members are in work, regardless of the number of hours they work.

    It will mean that for the first time around 80,000 extra families will be eligible to receive support through childcare.

    Similarly, the rigidity of the present system makes any form of flexible working, whilst reliant on state support virtually impossible.

    The current system is too clunky and slow to respond to changes in hours and incomes.

    This means unemployed people have been unable to take work unless the employer can guarantee a minimum number of hours.

    This rules out large numbers of agency jobs or casual work. It has made our unemployed population less flexible than the migrant workers who are filling those vacancies.

    It is part of the reason why the number of people on out of work benefits remains around the five million mark.

    Universal Credit deals with this issue.

    Payments will be based on real time earnings.

    So, people can work varying hours and still be confident of a minimum level of income.

    The current system infantilises people.

    It takes budgeting powers away from people by paying their rent and some of their bills for them.

    Benefits are paid weekly or fortnightly, whilst most employees receive a monthly salary.

    Benefits are paid to individuals where as most families manage their budget as a household.

    This means the whole experience of claiming benefits has become completely removed from the experience of receiving a wage.

    This encourages dependency because people literally do not know how they will cope without the support of the state.

    Under Universal Credit the default position will be a single, monthly, household payment, wherever possible.

    This means benefit claimants will have to manage their own finances – their full finances – so when they do find work it’s easier to leave the safety of the welfare system.

    We will provide budgeting support for those who need it. This is a real opportunity to really change people’s lives by giving them the tools they need to take control of their finances.

    That’s what the welfare revolution is all about – that’s the final goal – to bring an end to long-term benefit dependency and begin a cultural transformation.

    Now I do have one more thing I want to talk to you about today – Support for Mortgage Interest payments.

    These are payments made towards the interest on benefit claimants’ eligible home loans.

    We think these payments should only be short term, to help people out when they fall upon hard times, so they don’t lose their homes.

    The current system of SMI payments does not encourage people to get on top of their own finances.

    It is also not sustainable. Even with today’s low interest rates it costs government £400million a year.

    We want to recover some of the SMI money so we can reinvest it in helping more people.

    For new claimants we are looking at options for recouping that money either when a house is sold or by levying a charge on the property for long term claims.

    Today we have published a call for evidence seeking views on a number of options for retrieving some of these funds. We are also reviewing other aspects of our help for home owners.

    The call for evidence closes in February next year and we are keen to hear your views.

    All I have done today is mention a few small areas where our welfare reforms are going to change things for the better.

    And these examples are replicated again and again as we bring coherence to a system that has been inadequate for too long.

    But these reforms aren’t about designing a nice, sensible system.

    They are about people.

    They are about freeing people to get back into work.

    Our welfare reforms are about transforming lives.

    And that’s why they are worthy of the term welfare revolution.

  • Lord Freud – 2011 Speech on Entry Level Employment

    lordfreud

    Below is the text of the speech made by Lord Freud in London on 5th July 2011.

    The stark message from today’s report is that we simply have too many unskilled people, not enough intermediate skilled people, and increasingly need very highly skilled people.

    For a country coming out of recession this is a wake up call.

    We are seeing slow and steady recovery, and the type and range of skills we will need to maintain growth is changing.

    But this is not just about having skills for their own sake.

    We know that people who leave school with no qualifications are over three times more likely to be out of work than people with a degree.

    And there are wider benefits to having skilled people in work.

    Some researchers estimate that a one percentage point reduction in the proportion of working age people with no qualifications would provide a net social benefit of between £32 and £87 million from reduced property crime in Britain.

    But, as this report makes clear, skills training must be related to the reality of employment.

    I was disturbed to read the findings of Professor Alison Wolf’s study into vocational qualifications published just a few months ago.

    She found that among 16 and 17 year olds between a quarter and a third are in, or moving in and out of, vocational provision which offers no clear progression into employment.

    We’ve developed vocational training that does not lead to a vocation.

    We are teaching skills that are neither use nor ornament whilst at the same time employers are crying out for better skilled candidates.

    This is madness.

    We must ensure the skills system is geared towards the needs of employers.

    But having the right skills is just one part of the picture.

    As this report has found, for entry level jobs, having the right attitude to work is just as important, if not more so, than even basic skills.

    Whilst the scope of today’s report is much wider than young people – looking, as it does, at all potential entry level candidates – it made me think of the Wolf report and our failure to properly equip the young with the skills they need in the real world.

    I think, as a society, we have let young people down by not preparing them for life beyond education.

    But worse than that, we have stood by as they have been sold a lie.

    We have allowed reality television to make them an empty promise of overnight success.

    Saturday night talent shows make ten second celebrities of ordinary people.

    This is not harmless viewing; implicit in this programming is the notion that you can get something for nothing.

    That if you wait around long enough your true talents will be discovered and fame and fortune will be yours.

    It is time for these reality shows to get a reality check.

    The rise of the cheap, temporary celebrity has eroded people’s responsibility to support themselves.

    We have a triple whammy of failure for young people in Britain today.

    The education system does not prepare them for the world of work.

    The benefits system encourages inactivity.

    And celebrity culture tells them it’s all going to be fine, that their moment in the sun is just an audition away.

    It is small wonder that we have well over a million** **16-24 year olds who are not in full-time education or employment.

    The real challenge of the CSJ’s report is how to restore employability in the unemployed.

    The report quotes one employer who summarised employability using the acronym PRIDE:

    – Professionalism

    – Reliability

    – Interest

    – Determination

    – Enthusiasm

    How do we restore the principles of PRIDE in our young people and more generally in the long term unemployed?

    We in Government hold some, but by no means all, of the levers for change.

    As the CSJ report rightly points out family, peer groups and wider society also have an enormous impact on aspirations and expectations.

    This is as much about culture change as it is about Government reforms in education or welfare.

    Government is tackling these issues head on.

    We have accepted Professor Wolf’s recommendations to improve the system of vocational education for 14-19 year olds.

    And we are committed to raising the age of participation in education or training to 18 by 2015.

    We are also committed to integrating employment and skills – making the real world of work the focus for skills training.

    We will improve basic skills like literacy and numeracy by providing a full subsidy for basic skills training in England for everyone aged over 19 years old, regardless of benefit status.

    We will also fully fund training for people on active benefits to address skills gaps, working with individuals and employers to ensure training is tailored to their needs.

    And all training will be accredited meaning over time credits from completed courses will add up to full formal qualifications.

    We are empowering Jobcentre Plus to work more closely with local employers, colleges and private providers to help ensure that flexible and responsive provision is delivered to meet the needs of employers and communities.

    One of the most important aspects of this is work is ensuring they understand the local labour market and are able to respond accordingly.

    Frontline services are being encouraged to operate much more strategically and have been granted the power to tailor support to the individual at the right time for them, rather than at specific points in time.

    Additionally, Jobcentre Plus is now able to use data about current and emerging vacancies to identify future skills needs.

    District managers will then work with local training providers to develop short courses designed to meet those needs.

    In addition, from August this year we will give Jobcentre Plus advisers the power to require some benefit claimants to attend training if they are clearly missing specific skills which would help them to get a job.

    We have increased the funding for apprenticeships to over £1.4bn this year, enough to train 360,000 apprentices, delivering real opportunities to progress across a range of industries.

    Apprenticeships are an excellent way of building capacity for the future and ensuring young people in particular are able to move into fulfilling and sustainable careers.

    For long term unemployed people welfare reforms will provide a much more responsive benefits system and personalised back to work support.

    Universal Credit will deliver a real time tax and benefits system, making it much easier for unemployed people to take short term, flexible jobs like those offered at entry level.

    At the same time the new Work Programme will provide tailored support for people finding it difficult to find work.

    This support is being delivered by private providers who are paid by results.

    The emphasis is on sustainable employment with providers earning more money the longer they support someone to stay in work – up to £13,700 over two years in some of the hardest to help cases.

    We have not dictated to providers how they should provide support so that they are free to use whatever methods they know work and to develop innovative new ways to improve existing methods of support.

    However, we know from this report and our own experience that often providers choose to develop effective relationships with employers so that they are able to more accurately match the right candidate to the right job.

    And the emphasis on sustainable employment means that providers will be incentivised to offer some form of in-work support.

    This could reduce the risk to employers of hiring some of the harder to help, long term unemployed as there will be some level of consistent support available to the new employee.

    There are a number of further steps Government is taking to tackle this issue.

    For example, over the summer we hope to launch the new sector based work academies.

    These are sector specific packages of training and work experience with a guaranteed interview at the end.

    They are focused in sectors that have high volumes of vacancies – often at entry level – and included accredited qualifications.

    Government is providing practical solutions, we are pulling all the levers we can but it must be a combined effort.

    We need employers to work with us to ensure training actually provides the skills they need.

    We need training providers and employers to work closely to design and deliver training and work experience packages.

    We need educational reform so young people are able to gain qualifications that are worth something to both students and potential employers.

    But most of all we need to restore PRIDE in our young people and long term unemployed, that’s about societal change and is a task we all share.

  • Lord Freud – 2010 Speech to Institute of Revenues Rating and Valuation

    lordfreud

    Below is the text of the speech made by Lord Freud to the Institute of Revenues Rating and Valuation in London on 28th September 2010.

    Introduction

    Thank you for inviting me along to talk to you today.

    And I must say – your timing is excellent.

    The Government is currently putting a great deal of effort into initiatives that should have a positive impact on the kind of work that IRRV members do every day.

    Specifically – our new ideas about how we tackle fraud and error across the benefits system.

    But before I get into the detail, I just wanted to put some of our thinking in this area into context.

    Creaking system

    The Coalition was founded on the fundamental principles of freedom, fairness and responsibility.

    Those principles have prompted some really radical thinking right across government – and nowhere more so than on welfare.

    The 21st Century Welfare Paper we published in July sets out a whole new approach to welfare.

    The reforms will:

    – help people who could work to make the journey back into employment through the new Work Programme

    – make sure work pays – even for the poorest – with our options for Universal Credit and a simple taper system for withdrawing benefits

    – move us toward a far less complex, more dynamic benefit system will make it easier for people to calculate how much better off they will be in work

    – and just as importantly, the welfare reforms will create a simpler system that will slash administration costs, as well as reducing the opportunities for fraud and error.

    Complexity

    Running this creaking system currently costs the taxpayer about £3.5 billion per year across DWP, while fraud and error costs another £5 billion, including the tax credits system.

    Moving toward a simpler welfare system will help us deliver support far more efficiently.

    And with HMRC making progress on their consultation to use real-time data under PAYE II, we have a tremendous opportunity to really attack the numbers on fraud and error.

    Differentiate

    Some of you may be sitting there thinking, “I have heard all this before”. But this is a real step-change in our whole approach to welfare and it is crucial that we make the most of this opportunity – especially at a time when the Government is facing up to the challenge of a massive fiscal deficit.

    However, I also think it is important to differentiate exactly who we – as a government – have in our sights.

    First off, this is certainly not about targeting the poor.

    Quite the contrary.

    As this Government recently made clear, we are determined to clamp down across the whole spectrum of fraud – whether that is tax evasion at the top end, VAT fraud, benefit fraud or anything else.

    Given the pressure on the public purse, we simply have to make every penny count – and that includes going after the cheats at every level.

    For DWP, it means targeting the criminals and gangs who actively set out to defraud the system, as well as the individuals who deliberately deceive us to get money they are not entitled to.

    It is not about punishing those who are simply baffled by the vast complexity of the system and get it wrong.

    This is an important distinction, because through our plans for Universal Credits, we are doing our utmost to create a simpler, fairer welfare system that is easier for people to use.

    And the really good news is that a system that is easier to navigate will not only save time and administration costs – it will also make it far easier to differentiate error from fraud.

    Today, this is often a grey area, given the genuine complexity that exists in the system.

    But as our welfare reforms take hold, this grey area will shrink dramatically.

    Through a simpler Universal Credit system, the gap between fraud and error becomes very sharply defined indeed.

    At that point, if it is not a clear error, it will be classified as fraud. It is that simple.

    We will clamp down hard on anyone who makes an active choice to defraud the system:

    – criminal gangs

    – identity fraudsters

    – or people who make a conscious choice not to alert us to a change of circumstances for extended periods, because under a simpler system we will have far higher expectations that people tell us the truth.

    Strategy

    For anyone in these groups, we simply must have effective enforcement, because benefit fraud is not a victimless crime – in effect, they are stealing money from the poor and vulnerable who need it most.

    Which brings me to the next part of my speech today – how we are setting out a wider strategy to tackle benefit fraud.

    From my visits around DWP, I have witnessed first-hand the dedication and professionalism of our staff – from those who process benefits right through to the investigators chasing down the fraudsters.

    I know these same high standards are shared by our local authority colleagues. But one thing we know for sure is that criminals are always testing the system for weaknesses and coming up with new scams.

    That means that we have a responsibility to keep stepping up our game too.

    That is why we are working with partners inside and outside government to make sure we stay one step ahead of the criminals.

    In DWP, we have split the challenge across 5 fronts:

    – prevention

    – detection

    – correction

    – punishment

    – and deterrence

    There are specific plans being developed to tackle each of these areas and I’ll touch on a few of these today.

    Five Strategic Areas

    On Prevention, for example, I want to see closer cooperation with the private sector and credit reference agencies to harness the best data analysis possible.

    I also want us to take advantage of new technology to get accurate, real-time data analysis at the point of claim. This will make it far easier to spot the tell-tale patterns of fraud.

    Or as one expert recently referred to it – tracking the “muddy footprints” of the professional fraudster.

    I believe it is only a matter of time before we get really effective at targeting the criminals and gangs who perpetrate major scams.

    Making better use of tools and techniques such as these will also help us tackle identity fraud – something that I have a close personal interest in, having been targeted myself recently.

    On the second strategic priority – Detection- I want to make sure that Government bodies such as DWP, HMRC, and Local Authorities maintain their long track record of effective cooperation.

    Not just sharing data more effectively, but reinforcing our joint investigative capabilities as well.

    On Correction, I want to make sure that we get back what we’re owed – in particular by making sure we’re making full use of all the tools available so that we can target the assets of the criminal gangs.

    That brings me on to the subject of Punishment. This is another area where we are planning to pile on the pressure:

    – by introducing wide-ranging penalties for low-value fraud

    – by securing swifter and tougher punishments so that cheating is just not worth the risk

    – and setting out strong, punitive sanctions for organised criminals – and that includes:

    – wholesale asset stripping under the Proceeds of Crime Act

    – banning these people from accessing any benefits at all for as long as we can

    – and in the case of international gangs, making sure that we use our full powers to deport the guilty parties.

    Finally, Deterrence. Here, I want to make sure that criminals get the message that Benefit Fraud is a crime that just doesn’t pay.

    We will advertise that fact with a clear message that says:

    – we will find you

    – we will seize criminal assets

    – we will make sure that there is no place to hide.

    International

    That message extends to international gangs as well.

    Other countries face the same scams targeting their welfare systems, so we will work closely with our international partners to develop practical counter-measures and effective cross-border enforcement.

    In the meantime, I am determined that we continue to reinforce our defences against fraud so that the UK comes a long, long way down the list of countries targeted by organised gangs.

    Conclusion

    You can expect to hear more about some of plans to boost our defences in the very near future when our new Fraud Strategy is published.

    In the meantime, I hope that I have made the point loud and clear that we are absolutely determined to clamp down on the fraudsters, the serial cheats and the criminal gangs.

    No-one should underestimate our determination to take on the criminals.

    And no-one should think for a moment it is going to get any easier to get away with it:

    – with a simpler welfare system, we will drive better value for the taxpayer

    – with less complexity, we will be able to find the fraudsters far more easily

    – and with a comprehensive and coherent fraud and error strategy in place, we have all the tools we need to make sure that we keep the criminals on the back foot.

    It’s an exciting time for us.

    And as we develop these ideas in the future, I hope that you will work with central government and other agencies to make sure that we keep making life a lot less comfortable for the cheats in future.

    Thank you.

  • Cecil Franks – 1983 Maiden Speech in the House of Commons

    Below is the text of the maiden speech made by Cecil Franks in the House of Commons on 31st October 1983.

    I thank you, Mr. Deputy Speaker, for calling me to speak in this debate and in so doing giving me the opportunity of making my maiden speech on a subject which is of vital importance to my constituency. It is a privilege also to be called to speak after such a distinguished parliamentarian a s the right hon. Member for Blaenau Gwent (Mr. Foot), even though our views will differ widely.

    Barrow and Furness is a new constituency comprising the whole of the former constituency of Barrow-in-Furness, together with the Low Furness region of the former constituency of Morecambe and Lonsdale.

    Barrow-in-Furness was represented for 17 years by the right hon. Albert Booth who served the constituency and his constituents with great distinction, achieving high Government office as a member of the Cabinet. He is a man of great integrity and principle, and I am happy to have this opportunity of paying him tribute.

    The Low Furness area was represented from 1979 by my hon. Friend the Member for Morecambe and Lonsdale (Mr. Lennox-Boyd). He, too, was assiduous in his concern for his constituents, by whom he was and is held in high regard and esteem, and I wish to place on record my personal appreciation of the guidance and assistance that I have received from him since I became a Member of this House.

    The town of Barrow-in-Furness lies at the end of the peninsula of south-west Cumbria. It is a shipbuilding town whose prosperity depends entirely on the viability and success of its major employer, Vickers Shipbuilding and Engineering Ltd.—a constituent part of British Shipbuilders. The design and building of submarines, both conventional and nuclear powered, has been largely concentrated by British Shipbuilders at the Vickers shipyards, where over 8,000 people are employed in design and construction. In addition, there is a successful engineering section primarily involved in the design and manufacture of armaments, employing a further 4,500 people. With profits last year of £19 million, the company is the most successful within British Shipbuilders and has a management and workforce confident in themselves.

    Whilst I have no wish to introduce a note of controversy in a maiden speech, I should be failing in my duty to my constituents if I omitted to make the point that with 12,500 people employed in the company, the vast majority of whom live within the constituency, several thousand of my constituents would have faced inevitable job loss and redundancy if the electorate had preferred the defence policies of the Opposition to those of the Government.

    Great efforts have been made to widen the industrial base and three local employers of note should be mentioned. British Gas has constructed a terminal at Rampside, where gas from the Morecambe bay field is received, treated and then fed into the national grid.

    British Nuclear Fuels Limited has a large capital investment in its terminal at Ramsden docks where irradiated nuclear fuel is imported from Japan, transported by rail up the west Cumbrian coast to Windscale and Sellafield, reprocessed and exported back to Japan. After the export of oil, the operations of British Nuclear Fuels Ltd. are one of the largest, if not the largest, single sources of export earnings, something which is perhaps not widely known.

    Also located in Barrow, is the paper tissue mill of Bowater Scott, which, with four mills in production, is the largest manufacturer of paper tissue in the United Kingdom and, together with a similar sized company in West Germany, the largest in the world outside the United States.

    Four miles north of Barrow lies the small town of Dalton-in-Furness, whose residents have waited for many years and with great patience, for the construction of the Dalton-in-Furness bypass on the A590, which carries the heavy traffic to and from Barrow. I fear that their patience will not endure much longer.

    Beyond Dalton-in-Furness, sweeping up the peninsula, is the Low Furness region, as picturesque a part of the Lake District as any, with its rolling farmland and gentle hills, and its attractive villages and beautiful coast overlooking Morecambe bay.

    The natural centre of the area is the market town of Ulverston, charming and dignified and a centre of tourism in its own right. In addition to the market, there is a regular and lively cattle market serving the whole of south Cumbria. There is also a small but successful light industrial estate.

    Two other points of interest are that Ulverston is the birthplace of Stanley Laurel of Laurel and Hardy fame, and also that it is the home of Hartley’s Brewery, from whence comes a well-known and popular local beer. It is fair comment to say that for many years much pleasure has been given to a great number of people by the happy combination of Laurel and Hartley.

    Turning to the subject of the debate, let me say clearly and without equivocation that I endorse entirely the Government’s approach and policy on the deployment of cruise missiles. I find it incomprehensible that there are those who argue that strength will come from a voluntary and self-inflicted weakness. I find it equally incomprehensible—and reprehensible—that there are those who seem to find their natural allies not with the democracies of the West but with the tyrannies and dictatorships of those who are our enemies in thought and deed; and that there are those who oppose, as a matter of course, each and every act that the Western democracies take to safeguard and defend themselves.

    The defence of the realm is the prime duty of the state. The deployment of cruise missiles will counter the imbalance that threatens our security. This threat is not of our making or of our choosing, and those who criticise and condemn should direct their words and energies to our enemies and not to our allies.

    We are part of the western Alliance, and the British people, in decisive terms, have spoken for this to continue and to be strengthened. In two world wars, our allies have played a critical part in the defence of our freedom and independence, and our future freedom and independence lie in the preservation of a strong and united partnership with our NATO allies. This is the path that we must follow; there is no other.

    I crave your indulgence, Mr. Deputy Speaker, and that of the House, to widen somewhat the scope of my remarks and to make reference to two allied aspects of defence of particular importance to my constituency—the Trident programme and the development of Sea Dragon.

    Trident is a parallel part of our nuclear defence strategy. The Trident submarine is being designed and will be constructed at the shipyards of Barrow. The policy issues have been fully debated in the House and suffice it for me to say on that that the Trident programme has my full support. But where others have spoken on aspects of policy, my concern goes further, because the employment of 4,000 constituents is, and will be, dependent on Trident for the next decade and beyond. Barrow has placed its trust in the Government’s commitment to Trident and that trust, in turn must be fully honoured.

    Sea Dragon is also designed and built in Barrow. It is a close-in weapon system, the last-resort defence to Exocet and similar missiles when Sea Dart and Sea Wolf have failed to take out the threat. British-designed and built, it is currently in competition with two similar but inferior systems designed abroad. The export potential is tremendous and I urge that an early decision be made in favour of Sea Dragon. In passing, may I also mention that a decision is awaited on the conventional submarine, SSK 2400, where export orders are also anticipated.

    As I said earlier, where others may speak on defence on matters of policy and principle, my concern goes beyond because the House will appreciate that the whole prosperity and economy of my constituency is dependent on a firm defence commitment. Barrow and Furness has a Member of Parliament who believes in defence, and in defence in modern terms. I will not fail my constituency and I am resolute in my belief that the Government will not fail the country. Strength, not surrender, must be our single-minded objective, for there is no credible or acceptable alternative.

  • Padraig Flynn – 1997 Speech to TUC Conference

    Below is the text of the speech made by Padraig Flynn, the then European Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs, to the 1997 TUC Conference.

    President, members of the General Council and distinguished delegates, first of all I should say how delighted I am to be back with you today, to share your enthusiasm for building a new employment and social agenda in Europe and in the United Kingdom.

    Before I move on to the business of the day, I want to mention just for a moment the European Year Against Racism. I want to congratulate the many workers, in both the public and private sector, who have made this year so substantive across the United Kingdom. I want to congratulate the trade union Movement in the United Kingdom for using the year as a focus for the long‑term task of ensuring that social justice, equality and the celebration of diversity are the daily fare of working life. Europe, in solidarity, applauds you.

    The first time I had the privilege of addressing this Congress was, as the President said, some four years ago, just a few months after I took responsibility for employment and social affairs in the European Commission and just a few months before we produced ‑‑ at the behest of all of the governments of the Union ‑‑ a White Paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment. That document and its core message of solidarity found strong allies in the trade union Movement across Europe. Its balanced approach ‑‑ making growth, competitiveness and employment complementary and sustainable ‑‑ remains central to Commission thinking. It underpins our continuing collaboration with the Member States of the Union.

    Much has happened in relation to the European Union’s economic and social policies since that Congress of 1993, but not enough in my view, nor I suspect in yours. The rate of unemployment across Europe remains unacceptably high.

    If we are to tackle this problem effectively we must put things in perspective. Europe is failing to create enough jobs. Fair question: why? Some voices are still blaming this on our competitive performance. They say we cannot compete either with low wage economies or with more efficient developed economies like the United States and Japan. Why, you ask? Because our costs are too high? Why are they too high? Because we have over‑developed social policies, which we cannot afford, they say. The question is: what does Europe do about it? Europe compounds the difficulties, we are told, by proposing even more costly social policies.

    That view has little foundation in fact. The European Union economy has underperformed for much of the past two decades in terms of growth and job creation but not because of lack of competitiveness. Europe is competitive on any criteria that makes economic sense. We pay our way in the world with a trade surplus of over one per cent of GDP. We have low stable inflation, 2 per cent, creating a positive and predictable environment for business. We have a steady 2 per cent a year growth in productivity, two to three times faster than the United States, steadily narrowing the real income gap between us. We have declining unit labour costs, and the highest levels of profitability for 35 years.

    These are the facts, not fantasy. They show the true state of Europe’s economic fundamentals. So to suggest that Europe is not competitive and then to blame it on Europe’s social model is, in all its forms, simply misleading. Europe’s social model is not a drag on our competitiveness. Public social spending in Europe is a productive factor, creating stronger economic performance. It is not a cost; it is an investment for both the short and the longer term. It is not an unaffordable luxury. It is simply the European way of coping with change and with paying for services that citizens of all advanced industrialised countries demand.

    Our problem is not that our economies are weak, or our budgets unbalanced through excessive social spending. Our problem is that our competitive success reflected in trade, and in productivity, has not been matched by effective economic policy management. Our persistent unemployment is not the consequence of overdeveloped social policies, although many could be usefully reformed. It is the result of underdeveloped and fragmented economic policies, as well as poor investment in human resources.

    The very success of the Single Market has highlighted the growing problems arising from having economic policies based on the old concept of fragmented national markets, rather than on the reality of the Single European Market. This is reflected in the different fates of Europe and the United States, during and after the major recessions of the seventies and early nineties. In the United States the policy guidelines and instruments of countervailing action exist. The central monetary authority, the Federal Reserve, is obliged to pursue both full employment and price stability. The FED has used its interest rate policy very effectively in both respects. Europe has lacked such a framework. All we have had has been a loose commitment to economic policy coordination and fourteen separate currencies.

    And the result? While the United States recovered rapidly after each recession, Europe did not. Without the means to manage common action European recovery has been slow. Each recession has left a legacy of high and increasingly structural unemployment. The paradox is, of course, that some commentators never cease lecturing us about how we should learn from the United States with its flexible labour markets.

    On the contrary, we learn much more from the United States in terms of economic policy management than in terms of labour market and social policy design. The former has enabled the United States to maintain a high level of employment. The latter has led to costly social problems ‑‑ the working poor, crime rates and imprisonment ‑‑ that we in Europe have more successfully avoided. Now Europe has the opportunity to escape its own policy traps, to emulate the positive aspects of United States employment performance, while maintaining the inherent strength of the European social model.

    The recent Amsterdam summit ‑‑ wrongly played down or written off by many ‑‑ was indeed a watershed in this process. The new European Treaty has put employment centre stage alongside the other criterion of success ‑‑ price stability. This created the opportunity to transform the long‑run growth in performance potential of the European economy. Two phrases from the Treaty tell it all. Firstly, it says, “Member States… shall regard employment as a matter of common concern and shall coordinate their action.” Secondly, “The objective of a high level of employment shall be taken into consideration in the formulation and implementation of Community policies and activities.”

    The identification of employment as “a matter of common concern” reflects awareness of the interdependence of Member States. If one Member State resorts to competitive devaluation, distorting subsidies to industry or a downgrading of working standards, that adversely affects job prospects in all of the other Member States. There has to be an end to monetary dumping, fiscal dumping and especially an end to social dumping.

    The aim of the Treaty is not just to stop bad behaviour; it goes further. It aims to promote a positive‑sum game in economic and social policy from which we can all benefit. Amsterdam, with Maastricht, gives us the tools and the positive policy guidelines that we need to ensure the long‑run growth and development of employment in the European economies.

    There are two political consequences that emerge. The first is that EMU can no longer be seen as some kind of optional extra. It is the necessary counterpart to the increasingly integrated European economy in which national, economic policies lose much of their force if exercised alone. The second is that monetary union alone is not enough. Our objective must be a full economic and monetary union, with an effective and positive cooperation and coordination of national policies and objectives, including employment, as well as appropriate monetary policy.

    Economic policy failures have been the root cause of Europe’s unemployment. Too often, though, unemployment has turned into long‑term unemployment because of the weaknesses in our social protection and labour market systems.

    Too little emphasis on employability policies and too much weight given to unemployment insurance and other income maintenance schemes have weakened our capacity to adjust. We need to modernise, not only our economic policies but also our labour market policies, including our social protection systems.

    But let me be quite clear about one thing: reform and modernisation does not the mean wholesale deregulation. Contrary to the rhetoric, deregulated labour markets do not produce higher levels of employment than well regulated ones. What they do tend to do is to reduce standards; they widen the spread of incomes between richer and poorer members of the workforce; they reduce overall levels of productivity‑enhancing investment in people and capital.

    Well regulated labour markets are as essential to long‑run economic success as well regulated product or financial markets. They enable entrepreneurs to create jobs, just as much as they enable workers to equip themselves for changing skills demands. They also help to create what I believe is an essential pre‑ condition for economic and social well‑being: a skilled, flexible, secure and mobile European workforce.

    To achieve this, the regulatory framework cannot remain static in a changing world. We must reconcile the flexibility which firms need with the security which workers require. This is the key to bringing our success as productive economies and societies into the new century, and into the new shape of working life.

    In the new, more fluid labour market the need for security will not diminish, but its purpose, its form, needs to change in order to serve and to help create a more dynamic labour market and a more dynamic economy. An important part of this must be a new and a stronger focus in social protection systems on employability and access to skills. Social protection must actively equip people to work as well as provide basic support.

    Just as important, labour law and the collective arrangements governing future working patterns must offer recognition to new forms of working conditions and contractual arrangements. The arrangements must factor in human resource investment as an integral part of the mutual contract.

    The incorporation of the new, reinforced protocol into the Treaty as a chapter of social policy was a major political achievement. More importantly still, the endorsement and the opting in by the United Kingdom was very significant and it has strengthened European social policy. I warmly welcome that step taken by the United Kingdom Government. It has put the United Kingdom back at centre stage in the development of a truly European social policy, a place they should always have been in.

    However, some people have warned that as a result I would be travelling here to Brighton today and that I would be coming by boat ‑‑ coming by boat and towing behind me a huge raft of European legislation as a result of the Social Chapter. What a misunderstanding ‑‑ and I am being kind in the words I use here ‑‑ as to what European social policy is all about and what the Social Protocol does and does not do. A Common Market needs common minimum standards, if all workers are to benefit from the economic benefits which the Market brings about, and to prevent social dumping.

    Most of the relatively few laws that have been adopted in the last 30 years have covered health and safety matters, have covered freedom of movement of workers, have covered working conditions and have covered equal opportunities. Can anyone here suggest or argue that these laws are not justified or that they should be removed? I think not.

    The Social Protocol is not, I repeat, a legislative agenda and it has no presumption in favour of legislation. The Social Protocol is a development of the means we have at our disposal to protect the minimum rights of workers. It is important, now that the United Kingdom has signed up, that it provides a single coherent policy approach. It also creates direct input by the social partners to the policies which directly affect them and which is the basis for a new legislative approach in which you ‑‑ yes, you ‑‑ the trades unions and the employers become the key legislators.

    The European social dialogue is becoming a real and effective partnership. I look forward to supporting you in the realisation of the full potential of this new mechanism in the future.

    The Protocol does not call for a whole new raft of legislation. There is no conspiracy or hidden agenda. Instead there is a clear mechanism for examining what steps are necessary and, if necessary, how to proceed.

    Next year I will be discussing a new European Social Programme. It will not be a stand‑alone approach to social issues: it will present a strategic, integrated, mutually reinforcing set of social policy guidelines aimed at supporting the wider modernisation of Europe. As with everything else that we are doing, its main preoccupation will be improving the prospects for employment.

    Let us be clear: people matter and workers matter. In my book, flexibility does not mean insecurity. Workers who feel insecure feel threatened and that is not the way to motivate people to produce more, to accept change and to think “future”. Workers want to be part of and consulted on the way forward for a new Europe. We all know the demands of technology and up‑skilling. Workers will co‑operate, but they must be treated fairly. I do not think that that is an impossible contract in the year 1997.

    I state it in clear and unambiguous terms: if legislation is necessary and needed, I will not hesitate to propose and promote the appropriate legislation.

    Action on all fronts ‑‑ economic, employment and social ‑‑ will be the subject of the Jobs Summit in November this year called by the Luxembourg Presidency.

    I finish today with my proposals for employment policies. In the midst of all the complex issues to discuss, we see four main lines of action that Member States must deliver on:

    First is entrepreneurship, to create a new culture, a new climate and spirit to stimulate the creation of more and better jobs. In other words, we need a strong sense of business development in a growing and strengthening European economy.

    Secondly is employability of job seekers. We need to tackle the skills gap by modernising education and training systems and strengthening the links with the workplace so that all can seize the new employment opportunities ‑‑ a real springboard for new jobs.

    Thirdly is equal opportunities for all at work, to modernise our societies to a new order where men and women can work on equal terms and with equal responsibilities to develop the long‑term growth capacity of our economies.

    Fourthly is adaptability of enterprises and of the workforce to respond to changing market conditions, ensuring that no group is left behind, and facilitating the restructuring of industries and workplaces in a way that is acceptable to both workers and employers.

    In addition, we want to see governments set clear and measurable targets for tackling the priority issues of youth unemployment, long‑term unemployment and equality between women and men.

    We see these actions as part of an integrated and comprehensive economic and social strategy. They must be pursued together within the framework of supportive macro‑economic policies; they must be backed by institutional reforms, making the national labour market institutions and social protection systems more employment‑friendly.

    Under each of these headings, guidelines are being prepared which reflect these basic objectives. They form part of a broader framework for cooperation on employment that the Amsterdam Treaty and the European Council Resolution put in place. They provide the basis for developing the concrete actions on which the Council has insisted.

    Never has there been a more propitious moment to put one’s views and proposals clearly on the table. We seek a consistent framework to measure performance.

    Today, as we prepare for the Jobs Summit, we can clearly see that employment and social policies are top of the European agenda. The new employment provisions in the Amsterdam Treaty give Europe a real opportunity to make low growth and persistent unemployment a thing of the past. They provide the political and operational means by which we can address our deficiencies and failings through an effective conjunction of national and union‑wide policies.

    Within this framework, European social policy stands as an integral part of the process of modernisation in Europe.

    I understand that invitations are the order of the week. In the run‑up to this Jobs Summit and in the period beyond, my invitation to you is to join us in managing the process of change.

    The common concern on the scale of unemployment in Europe and the deterioration in job standards has now been joined by a common understanding of the causes and the remedies that we can bring to bear. The ground is laid for a good future. Let us turn Europe around for the better and let us get on and complete the job. I invite you to be part of it with me.

  • Paul Fisher – 2014 Speech on Inflation and Interest Rates

    Below is the text of the speech made by Paul Fisher, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, in London on 23rd January 2014.

    This morning I would like to discuss some of the important issues currently influencing the setting of monetary and financial policy by the Bank of England. Those policies may have a direct bearing on pension funds; most obviously you might think via the yields on financial assets but perhaps more importantly via the stability of the real economy.

    Developments in inflation 

    First of all I want to note the importance the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) attaches to CPI inflation being close to its target of 2%. Indeed it is currently at exactly its target of two point zero per cent for the first time since April 2006! (Although it did drop below 2% for a time in 2007 and 2009). Although we can’t expect inflation to be exactly 2.0% very often (just four times since it was announced as the target variable in December 2003), inflation has been above target for most of the past six years. Both the extent of the overshoot and its persistence were greater than the MPC initially expected. The pain of that experience of high inflation over the past few years should remind us all why the UK attaches so much importance to keeping inflationary pressure under control and why we have an inflation target.

    Inflation is costly in all sorts of ways. It can destroy real incomes, for example by acting as a hidden tax, and destroy wealth through a misallocation of resources. Those on fixed nominal incomes or who depend on savings income may be badly affected whereas it can inflate away the debts of others. And it generates a variety of other economic costs and distortions as changes in the general level of prices start to dominate the information contained in relative or ‘real’ prices. Many of these costs are pernicious by being implicit; for example in businesses having to change price lists, or consumers having to spend more time looking for real value.

    The MPC could have set a tighter monetary policy to try and limit the rise in inflation. Why didn’t we? First, because we were pretty sure that the factors driving inflation higher were going to cause changes in the price level rather than being consistent with, say, excess demand generating persistently higher inflation. We expected inflation to fall back, once those changes had passed through. And, second, to prevent even a temporary rise in inflation consequent to those price level shifts, the MPC would have had to try to depress the economy even further, by consciously pushing down on output, employment and nominal wage growth – so real wage growth would have been weaker, not stronger – at a time when the economy was already very weak. So, despite the costs of the inflation which were experienced, the costs of the policy needed to counteract it would have been even greater in this specific circumstance of one-off shocks and left the UK economy in a much worse position now.

    I want to stress that these calculations would not lead to the same conclusion were inflation being driven by pressure arising from excess demand or if inflation had led to expectations of above-target inflation in the medium-term. In those circumstances, where inflation would be more persistent and hence much more costly, the benefits of bringing inflation back to target would outweigh the short-run costs of doing so. The recognition of these different short-run trade-offs, depending on the forces driving inflation, lie right behind the specification of the Remit we have been given by the Government.

    The fact that inflation has now returned to target confirms to me that we were broadly correct in our underlying assessment that the factors pushing up on inflation would be temporary, although the near-term path for inflation hasn’t always been what we expected. It is very difficult to anticipate the precise trajectory of prices and we have certainly learned more about the dynamics of inflation during this difficult period: the effects of the 25% depreciation in the sterling effective exchange rate between mid-2007 and early 2009 were larger and longer-lasting than we anticipated for example. But tightening policy in response would have been a major mistake: a tighter policy then and we could now be facing the threat of deflation and depression, rather than inflation around target and the prospect of real recovery.

    The MPC’s policy has been to keep short-term interest rates low, by setting Bank Rate at 0.5%, and to stimulate the economy through asset purchases and latterly through forward guidance. Although asset purchases work through several channels, I want to spend a little time on their contribution to depressing longer-term interest rates. Low interest rates – at all maturities – have been necessary to help stimulate spending and so help set the conditions for a recovery in the economy. But for many investors, such a policy generates low financial returns which are difficult to cope with. Pension funds, for example, need relatively long-term, low credit risk investments – such as gilts – and those have been generating lower than normal returns for some years. In fact, the search for yield has tended to depress all financial returns. But I want to reflect on the relationship between rates of return and the real economy. As a general proposition, one cannot expect to earn high risk-adjusted real returns from financial investments if the underlying real economy is not growing. For example, it is business profitability which drives equity dividends and prices.

    The real ‘risk-free’ interest rate is also associated with real growth. Slow economic growth and low financial yields have been a feature of most of the developed world in recent years because of the global nature of the recessionary forces at work. Once a recovery in the UK economy has been firmly established then one would naturally expect real financial returns to be higher, and the real policy rate (i.e. Bank Rate minus expected inflation) can start to normalise.

    We can express this thought in a different way. Would it have helped financial investors to have had higher nominal interest rates over the past few years? If that had meant a deeper recession, deflation and an even longer-lasting malaise in the economy, then very few UK-based medium-term investors would have been better off as demand and activity would have dropped off further, credit risk crystallised and a range of credit investments went bad. Those with longer term investment horizons – such as everyone in this room should have – will appreciate that the best outcome for UK monetary policy is for it to be set at the right level to lay the foundations for a stable economy.

    In that regard, we should bear in mind that the economy will always be subject to unforeseen shocks which tend to push it away from stability for a period of time. The job of the MPC is to react to those shocks by bringing inflation back to target and, subject to that primary objective, in a manner which helps sustain output and employment.

    As well as inflation back around target, we have also seen a resurgence in growth over the past year. It was difficult to explain the suddenness of the change in sentiment which accompanied the recovery during 2013 but growth in itself should not be regarded as surprising. It is the near stagnation from 2010-12 which was harder to understand. We have been stimulating the economy with historically extreme levels of monetary policy for a long time and a variety of headwinds (including the problems in the euro area, a tightening of credit conditions, the drag on activity from fiscal consolidation, and a squeeze in household real incomes resulting from the fall in productivity and higher energy and commodity prices) have all contributed to limit the effect of that stimulus. What seems to have happened in 2013 is that at least some of those headwinds were perceived to have diminished, allowing the policy stimulus to come through and the resulting growth has generated the renewed consumer and business confidence which reinforces demand.

    We are very conscious that the headwinds have not gone away: much of Europe and some other parts of the world continue to struggle for sustained growth; fiscal consolidation in the UK (and elsewhere) is likely to continue for a while to come; and the financial sector still needs some rebuilding. Indeed, the official production and construction data released earlier this month were rather disappointing, reminding us that strong growth from here on is by no means guaranteed. But to varying degrees perhaps the very worst of the storms may be behind us. Just a tailing off in some of their negative impacts may have been sufficient to allow the economy to start growing again.

    Interest rates and forward guidance 

    So why aren’t we moving to tighten policy straight away, why did we issue forward guidance around monetary policy? The answer is in the levels of output and employment, not their growth rates. After nearly 6 years since the start of the crisis, the level of output in the economy is still 2% below its peak in 2008. A conservative extrapolation of the pre-crisis trend would suggest that UK output is some 15-20% below where it would have been expected to be by this time in the absence of the crisis. It seems unlikely that we will recover much of that gap and in any case the calculation is getting less precise and less relevant.

    Eventually, economic historians may work out what happened to potential output and we should establish a new reference point. As things stand today, it is difficult to know precisely where the new sustainable growth path of the economy lies (especially as data for the past few years are still likely to undergo significant revision by the ONS). But with unemployment still elevated, and diminishing signs of inflationary pressure in both goods and labour markets, we can be reasonably confident that the economy needs to grow strongly for some time to come, to regain a stable and sustainable medium-term trajectory.

    The challenge for the MPC is to assess when inflationary pressures will be building and thus when we need to start withdrawing stimulus, so that once we have eliminated slack in the economy, monetary policy is consistent with stable, sustainable growth and hence stable inflation around the target (subject of course to the other forces acting on the economy at the time). That’s an extremely optimistic expectation of what policy can achieve, so let me put it slightly differently. The realistic challenge for the MPC is to avoid a big mistake either by choking off the recovery too soon, leaving the economy in a quagmire, or by allowing inflationary pressures to build excessively, requiring a sharp tightening in interest rates (and the potential for another recession) to bring inflation back under control.

    Forward guidance is a policy framework designed, amongst other things, to help avoid big mistakes. We can encourage and probe growth in the economy by committing not to tighten policy until the economy has used up more of its spare capacity. On one view the policy is simple – we must give the economy plenty of time to establish the recovery before we start to raise interest rates or unwind asset purchases. At another level, some critical judgements are going to be needed because the timing is inevitably uncertain. Given those uncertainties, forward guidance delivers a framework within which the MPC can explore the scope for economic expansion without putting price and financial stability at risk. That guidance should help to give confidence to businesses and households and help to support demand growth. By reducing uncertainty about our reaction function, guidance should also have helped to counteract the pressure in financial markets to price in the chance of a rapid increase in Bank Rate.

    We chose unemployment as the threshold indicator not because it was ideal – far from it – but because other indicators were all less attractive. Of course, no sooner had we announced a policy linked to the unemployment rate than it began to fall unusually precipitously. But what is there not to like about sharply falling unemployment? After all, getting the economy back to a medium-term path quickly, allowing policy to normalise, would be a good thing? Right?

    Well, falling unemployment is undoubtedly a good thing for the individuals who are back in work and on many other social counts. It could only be a purveyor of the dismal science who found rapidly falling unemployment disappointing! Yet, in order to see rising living standards on average, it is crucial to see rising output per head (i.e. rising productivity) – which ultimately drives real national income per head and hence how well off we are as a country. So we need to see rising employment accompanied by even faster growth in output.

    The implied productivity performance of the UK economy has, in fact, remained poor – according to the official statistics, output simply doesn’t appear to be growing fast enough to support the employment growth recorded as well as generate the rapidly rising real incomes one would like to see. Something has to give. I hope that it will be that output grows faster – either through upwards revisions to recent growth rates or faster growth in future. If, on the other hand, the UK economy uses up all its spare capacity, without having had a substantial rise in real national income, then we should all be disappointed.

    The weakness in productivity growth has been well documented, but a convincing explanation remains elusive. There are many plausible explanations of factors which could have contributed to the weakness, but each explains only a small part of the whole puzzle. I don’t have time to get into that debate today, but we do offer a variety of candidate explanations in recent Inflation Reports.

    One better feature of the current situation is that price pressures seem to be subsiding, not growing. Despite good rates of employment growth, there is no sign of nominal wages over-reacting to general tightness in the labour market. Other price pressures also appear to be easing somewhat. Month by month there have been a series of small downside surprises in the inflation rate as oil prices have been relatively stable; the effects of administered and officially regulated prices now seem to be a bit less than previously expected; inflation expectations remain well anchored and the exchange rate has been rising which may help keep a lid on imported costs for a while (but importantly, at the cost of less balanced growth which is a separate problem). Taking the inflationary news together, it would appear that we have a favourable situation in which to explore how much more capacity the economy has, before inflationary pressures begin to build.

    Another positive factor supporting our probing strategy is the emergence of macro-prudential policy. Monetary policy has a difficult challenge ahead, as I have outlined. It will help enormously if financial policies can help deal with, or at least mitigate the risks from, some of the imbalances that are arising in the economy while the MPC aims to restore medium-term stability in the economy as a whole. The housing market is an example of where monetary and macro-prudential policies can helpfully interact and the November 2013 Financial Stability Report sets out some of the policy measures that are underway or could be called on if necessary.

     

    Funding for Lending Scheme 

    One decision that has been implemented is in relation to the Funding for Lending Scheme (the FLS). The FLS contributed to a substantial fall in bank funding costs after it was launched in July 2012. This fed through to a significant improvement in household credit conditions. Rates on new household lending have fallen markedly since mid-2012, with falls of more than 100 basis points in some representative mortgage rates. Both gross secured lending and repayments have picked up strongly. And the number of approvals for house purchase has risen significantly, indicating higher mortgage lending in future. The Scheme has probably been one of the driving influences behind the resurgence of business and consumer confidence – although there are many other factors behind the sort of swing we have seen.

    Partly because of its own success, there is no longer a need for the FLS to provide broad support to household lending. It is not the case that net lending for mortgages by UK banks is, as yet, excessive. Indeed, the annual rate of growth in the stock of secured lending to individuals was under 1% in November 2013. But sharply rising house prices are a potential source of instability and we should not risk adding policy oil to that particular fire. Credit conditions for smaller businesses have also improved, but to a lesser extent, and lending to businesses overall remains muted. The FLS extension will therefore provide continued substantial support for lending to businesses, with incentives in the scheme skewed heavily towards lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). As the MPC noted in the minutes of its December 2013 meeting, the changes to the FLS provided support to the MPC’s policy guidance by reducing the risk of triggering the financial stability knockout.

     

    Conclusion 

    Yesterday, the Labour Force Survey headline unemployment rate for the three months to November was published at 7.1%, after another large fall. But even if the 7% unemployment rate threshold were to be reached in the near future, I see no immediate need for a tightening of policy. The MPC has been clear all along, that upon reaching the 7% threshold we will have to consider what the medium-term pressures on the economy are and make an appropriate judgement about the direction and pace of policy, and any further guidance that we may choose to issue in future. It is probably best to think about that in the context of our medium-term inflation projections published in the Inflation Report.

    Overall, the macroeconomic outlook is much more comfortable than it was – but we still have much to do and much to concern us. There is no room for complacency. Can the UK keep growing at the sort of rate consistent with recovery if our key European export markets remain so sluggish? How much more adjustment is needed in the financial sector and in the fiscal position? Have households sufficiently rebuilt their balance sheets to be able to withstand a normalisation of policy? Many of these considerations argue against being hasty in tightening monetary policy. But the inflation target remains our primary objective and we will have to be careful not to allow pressures to build up from excess demand. It would be a relief, probably for both you as investors and for us as policy makers, to get back to more normal policy conditions, but my own judgement is that we are still some way off the point where it is appropriate to start raising Bank Rate and that when it is time, it would be appropriate to do so only gradually.

  • Alex Fergusson – 2003 Speech at Conservative Spring Conference

    Below is the text of the speech made by Alex Fergusson at the 2003 Spring Conference on 7th March 2003.

    One of the principle factors which motivated me to put my name forward as a candidate for the first Scottish Parliamentary election of 4 years ago was the absolute certainty that rural Scotland would need every voice it could get to speak in its defence in a Parliament that would, inevitably, focus on the urban agenda of the majority of MSPs. Many people, from all parties and all walks of life in rural Scotland feared the consequences of that agenda. Today, 4 years on, those fears are proven to have been entirely justified and rural Scotland today is more divided and distrusting than it has ever been. No wonder.

    I don’t blame the Labour party. They are, and always have been, an urban party with an urban agenda. They don’t understand the problems of rural Scotland and I have sympathy with that. What saddens me is that they show no signs of even wanting to understand those problems. No, the real tragedy is that, because of Labour’s indifference, they have left the fate of rural Scotland in the hands of their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats who are the architects of the muddled thinking and the mixed messages which are the real cause of the cynicism and enmity that I encounter all over Scotland whenever the legislative performance of this first Scottish Government is debated.

    Who, other than the Liberal Democrats could give virtually free access to all land – field and hill alike – to anyone who wishes to take it – on the one hand – and tell all farmers, in the biosecurity Code of Practice – that they must keep people away from livestock at all costs on the other?

    Who – other than the Liberal Democrats – could restructure Scotland’s fishing industry by destroying our fishing communities?

    And who – other than the Liberal Democrats could make such a mess of Agricultural Tenancy reform that a Bill which purports to revitalise the tenanted sector (an aim with which we wholeheartedly agree) has already effectively killed it stone dead?

    Over the last four years it often seems that it is the bureaucrats who have taken over the running of rural Scotland. How else do we explain the almost savage authority with which SNH now carries out its remit? How else do we explain the crippling penalties imposed on farmers who make the tiniest of errors in filling out the increasingly complex forms which they are required to complete? How else can we explain the ever increasing influence of so-called charities and partnerships such as RSPB, Environmental Link and the many others whose place in the decision making process seem wholly inappropriate, unduly influential, and highly questionable?

    Rural Scotland must be offered a real alternative, and it won’t be offered one by the SNP. Perhaps that is unfair, at their conference – they will offer an alternative but it’s an alternative that is more likely to resemble the politics of Stalin and Karl Marx than the politics which are needed in rural Scotland today.

    That real alternative won’t come from the SNP it won’t come from the Greens, from the Scottish Socialist Party, the fisherman’s party or even the often rumoured but entirely invisible Country Party. The real alternatives will be offered by the Scottish Conservative Party whose natural understanding of what makes rural Scotland tick has become increasingly obvious over the last four years.

    Accordingly, as soon as we are given the opportunity, we will instigate a total review of the regulatory burden which is suffocating rural Scotland today, with a yardstick of minimising regulations rather than maximising them, and I include outright rejection of the proposed sheep tagging regime and abolition of the 13 day rule. We will overhaul agri-environmental funding, in conjunction with the industry, to identify a more equitable pattern of distribution rather than continuing the current lottery of applications for the Rural Stewardship and Organic Aid Schemes.

    We will trim to a minimum the remit and operations of SNH, while maximising the local knowledge and practical input which should influence all their operations.

    We will reinstate the much-lamented Rural Forum in a more up to date form and explore every possibility for the greater regionalisation of production and marketing of the high quality products for which Scotland is so justly famous.

    We will restore a tenable balance between communities, tenant farmers, access takers and landowners by repealing parts 2 and 3 of the Land Reform Bill and reviewing the Access provisions of Part 1.

    Never let it be said that this party is against community ownership, access to land or tenants buying their farms. We are not – but it should always be done by mutual agreement and co-operation rather than by the confrontational approach which this Government has turned into an art form.

    In short, conference, we will deliver genuine integrated rural development – an overall package which encompasses housing, health service delivery, education, transport and infrastructure priorities alongside the traditional rural industries of farming, forestry, fishing and tourism.

    That is the approach which rural Scotland needs and which only we will offer. I believe that the electorate will endorse it strongly on May 1st and I commend it to you today.