Lord Green of Deddington – 2016 Parliamentary Question to the HM Treasury

The below Parliamentary question was asked by Lord Green of Deddington on 2016-04-21.

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what estimate they have made of the (1) EU GDP, and (2) UK GDP, per household in 2030 in each of the three scenarios in the HM Treasury analysis The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (Cm 9250) published on 18 April.

Lord O’Neill of Gatley

In ‘HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives’ the central estimates for the annual loss of UK GDP under the 3 alternatives (relative to remaining in the EU) in 2030 are: 3.8% in the case of the EEA, 6.2% in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement, and 7.5% in the WTO case. Expressed in 2015 terms that means a loss of GDP per household of £2,600 for the EEA case; £4,300 for the negotiated bilateral agreement case; and £5,200 for the WTO case.

No estimate has been made of the impact on the EU GDP per household. This reflects a cautious approach, as, for example, the main estimates for the effect of leaving the EU do not take into account the negative economic impacts on the rest of the EU as a result of UK exit or the possible foregone benefits to the UK of future EU reform.