Category: Economy

Rachel Reeves – 2022 Speech in Response to Jeremy Hunt’s Emergency Financial Statement

The speech made by Rachel Reeves, the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, in the House of Commons on 17 October 2022.

As I regularly say now, I welcome the new Chancellor to his place. He is the fourth in four months of chaos and fiasco as this Conservative Government spiral down the political plughole. But the damage has been done: this is a Tory crisis made in Downing Street, but ordinary working people are paying the price. All that is left, after these humiliating U-turns, are higher mortgages for working people and higher bonuses for bankers. The Government’s climbdown on energy support begs the question yet again why they will not extend the windfall tax on energy producers to help to foot the bill.

It is good to finally see the Prime Minister in her place and not, as the Leader of the House had to assure us earlier, under a desk. But what is she left with? She has no authority, no credibility and no plan for growth. It is clear to see that the people who caused the chaos cannot be the people to fix the chaos. They are out of ideas, out of touch and out of time.

The Prime Minister should have spoken to the House today, but we know that she could not do that with a shred of credibility, given that the survival of this Government now depends on smashing to smithereens everything that she stands for. Now she is attempting to reverse everything that she campaigned on—it is not just impossible; it is absurd. The Prime Minister is barely in office and she is certainly not in power. Only five days ago, the Prime Minister said at Prime Minister’s questions that there would be “absolutely” no public spending reductions, but after what we heard from the Chancellor today, every single public service is again at risk from the Conservatives—from our NHS nurses to our schools and our servicemen and women—with the country paying the price for the Conservatives’ incompetence.

The Prime Minister said that she had an energy package for two years. Now that is being withdrawn on the very day it is supposed to be legislated for. She insisted that her Conservative mini-Budget would lead the country to the promised land. Instead it has led to the highest mortgages in 15 years and emergency interventions by the Bank of England to protect pensions. Then on Friday, there was the unedifying spectacle of the then Chancellor being dragged back from the IMF before he could do any more damage to our economy. So she has turned to a new Chancellor, who finished eighth out of eight in the Tory leadership contest, winning just 18 votes from MPs. The Tories have run out of credibility and now they are running out of Chancellors.

The latest office holder has been in the Cabinet for nine of the past 12 years, at the centre of a Government responsible for low growth and weakened public services, with him responsible for helping run the NHS into the ground. He was a big part of austerity season 1, and now he says the cure is austerity season 2. What was the Chancellor’s flagship policy in his own short-lived leadership contest? It was to reduce corporation tax in a totally unfunded manner, and not from 25% to 19%. The right hon. Gentleman called for it to be lowered to 15%, with not a single explanation of how it was to be paid for. The truth is that had he won the contest and implemented these policies, we would be in an even worse place than we are now. There is no mandate and no authority for any of this.

The Conservatives have put a lasting premium on people’s mortgages. Uncosted borrowing has sent interest rates spiralling. Millions of people’s mortgage deals will be coming to an end in the next few months, leaving many families forking out £500 more a month. People will be paying a Tory mortgage premium for years to come, so how does the Chancellor think ordinary people can possibly afford any more of this Conservative Government? We have heard no answers today. The Chancellor has said that growth requires “confidence and stability”. I agree, but where does he think the lack of confidence and stability has come from? It did not come from the sky; it came from the mini-Budget three weeks ago.

What does it say about our country that we are watching borrowing costs hour by hour? That is not the sign of a strong G7 economy; it is the exact opposite. Businesses are now saying that things are so unstable they are pausing investment here in Britain. The former deputy governor of the Bank of England Charles Bean has outlined the extraordinary damage that the Conservatives have done to our standing. In his words,

“we’ve moved from looking not too dissimilar from the US or Germany…to looking more like Italy and Greece.”

What a mess.

Where is the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast? Have this Government learnt nothing? Does the Chancellor really expect the country to take everything from him at face value? Last week, the Business Secretary was busy undermining the Office for Budget Responsibility. Today, we have received another massive fiscal statement with no forecast. What have this Government got to hide? They should publish the numbers so that we know the true state of the public finances after 40 days of this Prime Minister and after 12 years of Conservative Governments.

Today, the Chancellor has scaled back help with energy bills for families and pensioners. It prompts the question yet again: why will the Government not bring in a proper windfall tax on energy producers to help foot the bill for consumers, and when will the current Chancellor publish in full the Government’s estimates of the windfall profits of the energy giants over the next two years?

No one was talking about spending cuts until the Tories crashed the economy with their mini-Budget, so I ask the Chancellor: why should the British people pay the economic price for the Tories’ mistakes, and what spending cuts do the Government plan to make? We believe that the Government must honour their commitments to uprate benefits and pensions in line with inflation. Will the Chancellor make it clear today that is what he intends to do? What a contrast that cuts to benefits are still on the table, but the one thing the Chancellor could not bring himself to reverse today was lifting the cap on bankers’ bonuses. Why is this the last policy standing in this disastrous mini-Budget?

Let me come to credibility. Does the Chancellor accept that once credibility and trust have been destroyed, they cannot simply be regained by a series of zig-zagging, chaotic U-turns? Will he and the Prime Minister apologise for the costs and anxieties laid on families? Can he admit once and for all that the market turmoil we are in was directly caused by the disastrous decisions of his predecessor and of the Prime Minister? Can he guarantee that the Bank of England will not have to intervene again to save the Government, and what guarantee can he give people about their pensions, their mortgages and their household bills?

The Chancellor said today that everything is now on the table, but is that really the case? We know that abolishing the non-dom tax status will raise £3 billion a year, yet there was no mention of that. How can it be right that some of the richest individuals in society are allowed to buy their way out of paying the tax that should be paid here Britain? This would not be an eye-wateringly difficult decision, so why do not the Government just do it?

There is lasting damage which these policy U-turns will not change. They have set fire to everything; now they insist it is all fine. The truth is that an arsonist is still an arsonist even if he runs back into a burning building with a bucket of water. Because they cannot be trusted; the Tories are clinging on for themselves, regardless of the cost to the country.

Trickle-down economics will always fail; what drives forward our economy are the talents and efforts of millions of working people and thousands of ordinary businesses. The Government’s economic credibility has been destroyed. They have harmed our economic institutions, people are paying higher mortgages; the same set of people doing U-turns is not going to fix it. The only way to change this is a real change of Government.

October 17, 2022
Jeremy Hunt – 2022 Emergency Finance Budget Statement

The statement made by Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, in the House of Commons on 17 October 2022.

Mr Speaker,

The central responsibility of any government is to do what is necessary for economic stability.

Behind the decisions we take and the issues on which we vote are jobs families depend on, mortgages that have to be paid, savings for pensioners, and businesses investing for the future.

We are a country that funds our promises and pays our debts.

And when that is questioned, as it has been, this government will take the difficult decisions necessary to ensure there is trust and confidence in our national finances.

That means decisions of eye-watering difficulty.

But I give the House and the public this assurance: every single one of those decisions…

…whether reductions in spending or increases in tax, will prioritise the needs of the most vulnerable.

That is why I pay tribute to my predecessors for the Energy Price Guarantee, for the furlough scheme…

…and indeed for even earlier decisions to protect the NHS budget in a period when other budgets were being cut.

Mr Speaker, I want to be completely frank about the scale of the economic challenges we face.

We have had short term difficulties caused by the lack of an OBR forecast alongside the mini-budget…

…but there are also inflationary and interest pressures around the world.

Russia’s unforgivable invasion of Ukraine has caused energy and food prices to spike.

We cannot control what is happening in the rest of the world, but when the interests of economic stability mean the government needs to change course, we will do so – and that is what I have come to the House to announce today.

In my first few days in this job, I’ve held extensive discussions with the Prime Minister, Cabinet colleagues, the Governor of the Bank of England, the OBR, the head of the Debt Management Office, Treasury officials, and many others.

The conclusion I have drawn from those conversations is that we need to do more, more quickly, to give certainty to the markets about our fiscal plans.

And show through action, not just words, that the United Kingdom can and always will pay our way in the world.

We have therefore decided to make further changes to the mini budget immediately, rather than waiting until the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan in two weeks’ time, in order to reduce unhelpful speculation about those plans.

Mr Speaker I am very grateful for your agreement on the need to give the markets an early, brief summary this morning, but I welcome the opportunity to give the House details of the decisions now.

We have decided on the following changes to support confidence and stability.

Firstly, the Prime Minister and I agreed yesterday to reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the Growth Plan three weeks ago that have not been legislated for in Parliament.

So we will continue with the abolition of the Health and Social Care Levy, changes to Stamp Duty, the increase in the Annual Investment Allowance to £1 million, and the wider reforms to investment taxes.

But we will no longer be proceeding with:

The cut to dividend tax rates, saving around £1 billion a year.

The reversal of the off-payroll working reforms introduced in 2017 and 2021, saving around £2 billion a year.

The new VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors, saving a further £2 billion a year.

Or the freeze to alcohol duty rates, saving around £600 million a year.

I will provide further details on how those rates will be uprated, shortly.

Second, the Government is currently committed to cutting the basic rate of income tax to 19% in April of 2023.

This government believes that people should keep more of the money they earn, which is why we have continued with the abolition of the Health and Social Care Levy.

But at a time when markets are asking serious questions about our commitment to sound public finances, we cannot afford a permanent, discretionary increase in borrowing worth £6 billion a year.

So I have decided that the basic rate of income tax will remain at 20% – and it will do so indefinitely, until economic circumstances allow for it to be cut.

Taken together with the decision not to cut Corporation Tax, and restoring the top rate of income tax, the measures I’ve announced today will raise around £32 billion every year.

The third step I’m taking today, Mr Speaker, is to review the Energy Price Guarantee.

This was the biggest single expense in the Growth Plan and one of the most generous schemes in the world.

It is a landmark policy for which I pay tribute to my predecessor.

It will support millions of people through a difficult winter and will reduce inflation by up to 5%.

So I confirm today that the support we are providing between now and April next year will not change.

But beyond next April, the Prime Minister and I have agreed it would not be responsible to continue exposing the public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices.

So I am announcing today a Treasury-led review into how we support energy bills beyond April next year.

The review’s objective is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned whilst ensuring enough support for those in need.

Any support for businesses will be targeted to those most affected. And the new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency.

There remain many difficult decisions to be announced in the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on October 31st…

…when I confirm that we will publish a credible, transparent, fully costed plan to get debt falling as a share of the economy over the medium term…

…based on the judgement and economic forecasts of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.

I would like to thank the OBR, whose director Richard Hughes I met this morning, and the Bank of England whose Governor Andrew Bailey I have now met twice.

I fully support the vital, independent roles both institutions play, which give markets, the public, and the world confidence that our economic plans are credible, and rightly hold us to account for delivering them.

But I want some more independent, expert advice as I start my journey as Chancellor.

So I am announcing today the formation of a new Economic Advisory Council to do just that.

The Council will advise the government on economic policy with the first four names announced today:

Rupert Harrison, former Chief of Staff to the Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Gertjan Vlieghe, Element Capital

Sushil Wadhwani, Wadhwani Asset Management

Karen Ward, J. P. Morgan

Mr Speaker,

We remain completely committed to our mission to go for growth, but growth requires confidence and stability – which is why we are taking many difficult decisions, starting today.

But while we do need realism about the challenges ahead, we must never fall into the trap of pessimism.

Despite all the adversity and challenge we face, there is enormous potential in this country.

We have some of the most talented people in the world.

Three of the world’s top ten best universities.

The most tech unicorns in Europe.

One of the world’s great financial centres.

Incredible strengths in the creative industries…

…in science, research, engineering, manufacturing, and innovation.

All that gives me genuine optimism about our long-term prospects for growth.

But to achieve that, it’s vital that we act now to create the stability on which future generations can build.

The reason the United Kingdom has always succeeded is because at big and difficult moments we have taken tough and difficult decisions in the long-term interests of the country. That is what will we now do.

And I commend this statement to the House.

October 17, 2022
John Shipley – 2022 Speech on the Growth Plan (Baron Shipley)

The speech made by John Shipley, Baron Shipley, in the House of Lords on 10 October 2022.

My Lords, two crucial matters relating to growth were missing in the Minister’s introductory speech. I was surprised, because she said we must get the economy growing again—I think the whole House would agree with that sentiment—but there was absolutely no admission of, first, the impact of Brexit, which, as a number of noble Lords have pointed out, has damaged the country’s growth prospects. Will the Government admit that the forecast by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research that the reduction in GDP as a consequence of Brexit will lie between 4% and 5.5% is correct? It clearly matters in relation to growth.

The second issue, immigration, has been raised by a handful of noble Lords, but in particular my noble friend Lord Fox. Do the Government have an immigration policy? I ask because a major difference of opinion is clearly emerging between the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary. This matter needs to be explained. As the noble Lord, Lord Birt, said, there is a huge need for a bigger labour force in agriculture and a number of other industries, but what is the Government’s policy in relation to that, and to the number of students? I understand that we have record numbers of international students in the United Kingdom, which I welcome. This is a good thing, but they clearly count as part of the immigration numbers. Who is in charge of immigration policy? The problem we have is a problem now, while we address the skills deficit and the lack of productivity we have suffered from in recent years.

I look forward to the Minister’s reply on both those matters, but I will say this on the growth plan: you do not drive growth by making poor people poorer, by making rich people richer or with huge unfunded tax cuts. You do not drive growth by losing the confidence of the markets through a mini-Budget that was not subject to independent scrutiny, leading to the pound crashing, interest rates rising and a pensions crisis requiring £65 billion of emergency intervention. You do not drive growth by cutting corporation tax when it is investment incentives that drive growth, not the exact level of corporation tax.

The Prime Minister has called for “growth, growth, growth”, as though this is something only the libertarian right believes in, but good, clean, green growth is surely central to our future security. Yet achieving net zero seems of no interest or concern to the present Government. That is very worrying, because our country can grow as we deliver net zero.

The mini-Budget has worsened the cost of living crisis, particularly for aspiring home owners. From next year, the average mortgage bill on a new deal will increase by £1,500 a year on a £200,000 mortgage. We face major cuts in public spending. The Government have not said where these might fall—maybe we will find out on 31 October. The Government must drive fairness. We have heard of the number of children who will be pushed into poverty if benefits do not rise with inflation.

The Government have lots of proposals for which the detail is not yet clear. There are investment zones, very similar to enterprise zones, but what is the impact on those areas immediately outside them? Finally, what can the Government do to increase foreign direct investment, bearing in mind that it has increased 72% across the north of England in the last five years whereas in the rest of the country it has dropped?

October 17, 2022
Nicola Sturgeon – 2022 Comments on the Scottish Economy

The comments made by Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, on 17 October 2022.

Scotland has an abundance of skilled people, innovative businesses, and natural resources. We have everything it takes to be just as successful as comparable independent European countries. Our analysis from the first paper in the Building a New Scotland series shows that a dynamic economy and social justice go hand in hand. Each makes the other stronger.

Scotland’s economy is one of the best performing in the UK – however the UK economy, particularly post-Brexit, is now lagging behind many EU and international comparators. The UK economic model is demonstrably failing and increasingly holding Scotland back. Independence is now essential to build an economy that works for everyone. The paper we are publishing today will help people make a clear, informed choice about independence and how we can forge a path towards becoming a fairer, greener, wealthier country.

October 17, 2022
David Howell – 2022 Speech on the Growth Plan (Baron Howell of Guildford)

The speech made by David Howell, Baron Howell of Guildford, in the House of Lords on 10 October 2022.

My Lords, I welcome my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe back to the Front Bench and I congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Gohir, on her maiden speech. I am sorry that the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Birmingham is leaving us.

I begin by reminding your Lordships of something they probably do not need reminding of, but the media and many critics of the Government certainly do. After the two years of shutdown of the entire economy during Covid, plus now a war in Europe, after a huge swelling of public spending to cope with all that, and now the enormous energy cap finances and subsidies to stop the bleeding, it cannot be any surprise at all that we are in a very tight public finance situation.

I cite the Office for National Statistics in saying that public sector debt, excluding public sector banks, at the end of last month was running at £2.428 trillion. That is a couple of hundred billion more than this time last year. That puts net public debt at 96.6% of GDP. That is a net level last seen here in the 1960s and just slightly lower than at the end of the Second World War, or some of the levels experienced in the 1930s. This is not the highest in the world by a long chalk. In fact, it is the 11th highest in Europe. I see no harm and some good in judicious tax cuts, especially those that would bring down the CPI, which has an enormous effect downwards on government finances, or those that actually increase revenue, such as lowering fuel tax or going back to the income tax top rates the country enjoyed under Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, which were quite happily accepted then but now seem to cause such agitation.

But when all that is done, it is obvious that very big steps are now needed on the spending side. I beg Ministers to understand that the sane and effective way of bringing public finances into some sort of reputable balance is to identify and remove functions from the public sector, rather than slashing budgets all round by 10%. That is the classic Treasury style. The functions approach, which is questioning systematically the objectives of endless departmental activities and why they need to be in the state sector at all, was what we tried in the 1970s and later in the 1980s when I worked with John Hoskyns, as has been mentioned, which eventually led to taking most major industries out of state ownership, a healthy restoration of the balance between the state and the market, a real reduction in civil service manpower and a major contribution to growth.

I take my last minute to argue on another point: to make the real case for levelling up. By that, I mean by universal capitalism, rather than trying to do it by universal income redistribution. Assets and savings in the bank are what every family in the land needs for their security and dignity. Measures to bring about a capital-owning democracy and a much fairer and more widespread form of social capitalism than we have now are what Governments of the last 50 years have shied away from again and again. Now is a much better time to approach this. This is the real levelling up—the capitalism working for everyone everywhere that Theresa May used to speak about. It is time for serious action on that front to make a real difference to people’s prosperity, certainty and prospects.

October 17, 2022
John Birt – 2022 Speech on the Growth Plan (Lord Birt)

The speech made by John Birt, Lord Birt, in the House of Lords on 10 October 2022.

Announcing unfunded tax cuts in the Government’s mini-Budget was all but universally condemned. There was no advance consultation, no leaning on expertise. The Permanent Secretary to the Treasury was summarily fired, the OBR’s offer of a forecast waved away. This appeared a back-of-the-envelope, “we know best” plan.

The immediate consequences of course were dramatic. The Bank of England was selling UK debt one moment and buying it back the next. It had to mount a massive and costly rescue of pension funds. We experienced a rapid rise in interest rates, impacting both individuals and business. The estimates of the future level of government debt ballooned and the cost of financing that debt rose to 4% and is still rising.

The impact of all these factors on redistribution will be chaotic; the full consequences ahead for public services are still unknown. The rationale, of course, was growth, and we all want more growth. The World Bank published a league table of growth rates for the G7 countries from 2008 to 2021. Is Britain in the relegation zone? No. In fact, we are near the top; we are third, behind the United States and Canada, and ahead of Germany, France and the rest—hardly a crisis.

The US is clearly top of the tree with a 1.9% average annual growth rate versus our 1.1% over that period. So, yes, it would be nice to be up there with the US—but how? Where is the analysis: not another back-of-the-envelope plan but a deep and evidenced diagnosis to help us understand what really stands in the way of higher growth in the UK? The notion that stimulating the economy at a time of full employment and high inflation will do the trick sustainably is widely condemned and wide of the mark.

One requirement for growth is clearly investment, yet we have now spooked the markets. Investors have a global perspective: they look for opportunity but will shy away if we fail to offer them reliability and stability too. Beyond that, what can government do?

We know that we have vast labour and skills shortages across the economy: crops unpicked, short-staffed restaurants unable to open on the days they used to, and too few doctors and nurses. I know from my own exposure to the real economy that we are short of many more skills—for example, data scientists, digital marketeers and engineers. The Institution of Engineering and Technology estimates a current shortfall of 200,000 across the economy. We need a massive drive to bring our system of education and skills into line with the UK’s economic needs.

Moreover—I experienced this very strongly myself—modern workers no longer live just down the road. Executives and specialists often fill jobs hundreds of miles from home, travelling huge distances each week to reach their work, crashing locally mid-week. Other workers commute long distances daily, and all travel to and from work unproductively in our crowded country, on the worst road and rail infrastructure in the developed world.

Addressing these and other problems will improve the trend line of UK growth, but problems largely ignored for decades will take decades to put right. The notion that we can suddenly accelerate beyond the US to a sustainable annual growth rate of 2.5% is manifestly unachievable. The sooner the Government come back down to earth and face reality, the better for us all.

October 17, 2022
Joan Walmsley – 2022 Speech on the Growth Plan (Baroness Walmsley)

The speech made by Joan Walmsley, Baroness Walmsley, in the House of Lords on 10 October 2022.

My Lords, the Chancellor’s special economic operation was not as tragic as Mr Putin’s appalling special military operation, but it was pretty tragic for the economic prospects of ordinary people. Since the Budget that was not a Budget, I have met a small business that has shelved its expansion plans, a person with two jobs who is now looking for a third, and a mother of four who got extra blankets from the charity shop to avoid putting the heating on.

Planning to cut taxes for top earners shows whose side the Conservatives are on, and I am glad that they have decided to reverse that idea. In their defence, they say that they will reduce the basic rate of income tax by 1p next April—that is if we all get through the winter. However, 5 million people earn too little to pay tax, and the freeze on the tax threshold means that the average family will be £290 worse off next year anyway, and the tax cut is worth only about one month’s mortgage payment increase for some people.

Then there are energy bills. The Government have intervened to cut bills but they are still double what they were a year ago. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor, with their bungled Budget that was not a Budget, caused a massive increase in mortgage rates, connected exactly to the timing of the Chancellor’s statement. They spooked the money markets so badly that the Bank of England had to intervene to prevent pension funds going bust. All this adds up to ordinary families struggling, and then the Chairman of the Conservative Party tells them to go out and get a better paid job—shades of “Get on your bike”.

The Prime Minister has invented a new fantasy enemy: the anti-growth coalition. She even said in her conference speech that green issues are anti-growth—no; it was Brexit that was anti-growth. We on these Benches are not against growth but we are in favour of growth that works; growth from the bottom up rather than from the top down. We are in favour of the growth of well-paid jobs in science and technology industries, particularly green technologies to reduce emissions. That is not anti-growth; that is a vision for saving the planet.

Telling companies that they can keep more of their profits rather than increasing corporation tax is telling them that they can spend it on whatever they like—perhaps increasing CEO salaries. They should instead be saying that companies can keep more of their profits but must spend it on innovation and research and development to increase productivity and increase the skills of their workers. This can be done by various measures, including more tax credits.

The Lords Science and Technology Committee, in its latest report, heard evidence that growth comes from investing in science and technology. We welcomed the new national Council for Science and Technology, chaired by the previous Prime Minister, and recommended that it should meet more often—but the first thing the current Prime Minister did was to abolish it. Now all government departments are being asked to make cuts. What cuts will be made to the Chancellor’s former department, BEIS, reducing its ability to fund innovation and R&D?

I recognise that the Government have provided a significant amount of money to subsidise energy bills, but I have heard nothing about how they plan to reduce energy demand, thus improving energy security and cutting the amount needed for the subsidy and the cost of borrowing money for the subsidy, as well as ordinary people’s bills. Where, in the noble Baroness’s opening speech, was an emergency programme to insulate houses? Where are the improvements to building regulations and, importantly, enforcement to ensure that all new buildings are energy efficient? It saves families money, saves the Government money and creates jobs. What is not to like?

October 17, 2022
David Frost – 2022 Speech on the Growth Plan (Lord Frost)

The speech made by David Frost, Lord Frost, in the House of Lords on 10 October 2022.

My Lords, it is a pleasure to take part in this debate and to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Fox, who is a voice of clarity and forthright speaking in this Chamber. I congratulate my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe on her appointment once again to the Front Bench, in the Cabinet Office.

This country faces serious underlying problems, which my noble friend Lord Bridges and others have set out, and in my view this Government are beginning to tackle them. This will create turbulence but there is really no choice.

My noble friend Lord Lilley referred to the achievements of the Thatcher Government in the 1980s. One of her close advisers, John Hoskyns, said:

“It is not enough to settle for policies which cannot save us, on the grounds that they are the only ones which are politically possible or administratively convenient.”

Unfortunately, too many of those who have opposed the Government’s growth plan seem to want to do just that, thinking that the right way forward is just more of the same: more super-zero interest rates, more public spending and more clever policies, and the whole thing run by clever officials and institutions who are very invested in how things are now. The task before us is different. It is to make politically possible what is necessary for the country to begin to recover, and I believe that this is what the Government are setting out in the growth plan. I welcome that. I have spent a lot of the last year, within and outside government, urging the Government to get more serious about low taxes, reform and change. I am very happy that they have begun to do so.

The situation that we face as a country is difficult but it is not as bad as that which many others face. It is not as bad as for those trapped in the eurozone, who have no control over monetary policy or much else of the normal role of a Government. The report a week or so ago from Deutsche Bank researchers attracted a lot of attention in the hysteria of the last couple of weeks, pointing out that our economy might shrink slightly, by 0.5% in 2023. What attracted less attention was it saying that Germany’s economy would shrink by 3% or 4%. We must keep these things in proportion.

We have had a productivity and growth problem since 2008—which I note in passing is the period of the deepest integration of this country in the single market and of the highest inward migration. Re-joining the single market and reversing those trends will not help our growth performance at all; it did not help then and it will not help now.

The right way forward is set out in the growth plan: the gradual normalisation of monetary policy, which is essential if we are to solve the productivity problem. Zero interest rates harm the motor of a free market economy. The only way forward is medium-term fiscal discipline while letting fiscal policy take the strain in the short run, and supply side structural reform.

When the economy does not grow, you get competition for static resources, which is why we have what my right honourable friend the Prime Minister called the anti-growth coalition. The fact that so many people do not like the term shows that it has captured something real about attitudes. These people’s vision of the country seems to be to keep everything as it is. They do not want change. They are happy to see our country as a shabby-genteel aristocratic family, trying to keep up appearances but not ready to go out to work.

This will not be easy. Politicians must explain what needs to be done. However, I take inspiration again from the words of Margaret Thatcher, who said:

“First you win the argument, then you win the election.”

If the Government stick to their guns, I am confident that they will do both those things.

October 17, 2022
Claire Fox – 2022 Speech on the Growth Plan (Baroness Fox of Buckley)

The speech made by Claire Fox, Baroness Fox of Buckley, in the House of Lords on 10 October 2022.

My Lords, I am delighted to welcome the noble Baroness, Lady Gohir, and congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe. One thing that is growing is the strong women brigade in here.

I welcome one aspect of this debate. I want to move away from the focus on the redistribution of a shrinking national cake. The answer is to bake a bigger cake. I am glad that so many noble Lords now profess that they are pro-growth because, until recently, those of us who were arguing for economic development faced lectures that growth was unsustainable, irresponsible, damaging for the environment, a recipe for greedy consumerism and so on.

My problem is that the measures announced in the growth plan are flimsy and insubstantial. The problems we face—here I disagree with the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Newnham—were foreseeable, but they were denied by all sides politically. Those problems are far greater than the Government or the Opposition seem to acknowledge, even now. If only they could be fixed through the prism of cutting or increasing tax.

I have no doubt that the mini-Budget was a trigger for the present crisis, but we need to be honest that it is not the cause of Britain’s woes. Our stagnated, unproductive economy has deep roots of many years’ standing. For more than a decade, central banks have turned to easy monetary policies and vast amounts of quantitative easing both to keep interest rates near zero and to prop up and sustain a zombie economy. This was not called out by politicians. It could not have gone on indefinitely.

Closing down the UK economy for two years during lockdown, which received all-party support, and now the war in Ukraine have brought the UK economy’s underlying fragilities to the fore. However, the idea that tax cuts are an easy answer is pitifully inadequate—let alone those who blame Brexit; that is just pathetic.

Without things being produced, no wealth is created to generate incomes, profits and tax revenues to pay for public spending, so production is the key. But is the idea of the tax cuts that businesspeople, corporates and wealthy capitalists will spend their untaxed windfalls productively? Why would we think that? Since the 1980s, business has not been short of funds to invest but it has not been entrepreneurial and it has not invested in innovation, better technologies or the skills revolution. Instead, corporate culture itself has become risk-averse, playing it safe and playing with financial engineering.

A furious public are not just in terror about the short-term—their bills and mortgages—but dismayed at the lack of meat on the bone of the plans. Take the energy policy—the energy that we will need to fuel growth. There is no point in the Government loudly shouting, “Let’s frack”, and then whispering, “With local consent”, and continually reaffirming their net-zero targets. Green growth in reality means unreliable energy and eco-austerity. Let us get on with nuclear power. Let us get on with building those houses. At the moment, it is all soundbites. Never mind subsidising old industries, where is the concrete plan to invest in new sectors, with new jobs and new energy solutions? Where is the spirit of risk, courage and experimentation? We must create a new industrial revolution. That is the long-term plan that we need but it is sorely lacking, and the public need to hear more of it.

The public are not fools. They instinctively know that there is no pain-free route out of this. We need some frank talking, and a collective approach to solving the problems, beyond party politics. A huge transformation is needed in the economy, and everybody must be involved in shaping it. The words “Growth, growth, growth” are not enough. A lot more must be done. We must be humble and recognise that we have to take a lead on this but that we need the British public onside to make it happen.

October 16, 2022
Colin Low – 2022 Speech on the Growth Plan (Baron Low of Dalston)

The speech made by Colin Low, Baron Low of Dalston, in the House of Lords on 10 October 2022.

My Lords, the economy is not in a good state. The Budget and the so-called growth plan are not about to make things any better.

The Prime Minister and the Chancellor would like us to believe that all our economic woes are the result of Putin’s war and the resultant energy price increases. They want us to focus on the energy-capping element of their economic strategy, but the truth is that, before Putin, there were already worrying signs of output constraints, labour market distortions and inflationary pressures resulting from the disruptive effects of both Brexit and the pandemic.

Now, inflation is at almost 10%, output is still below its pre-pandemic level and wages for many, especially those in the public sector, are lagging well behind prices. Meanwhile, public services are in urgent need of resources, not just to deal with the enormous backlog built up during the pandemic but to rebuild resilience following a decade of underfunding of health, social care, education and local authority spending. Not only that but the lack of healthcare resources is almost certainly having a significant, negative impact on the labour market and, consequently, economic output.

In these circumstances, the Budget on 24 September should have confined itself to introducing the new energy price caps, with a promise of properly considered tax and spending decisions—and funding arrangements to match—to come later in the year. Instead, the Chancellor succeeded in spooking the financial markets with the promise of massive unfunded tax cuts, thereby weakening the pound and, more importantly, pushing up the cost of government debt and raising interest rates more quickly than would otherwise have been needed.

With mortgage rates already increasing to over 6%, mortgage payments as a proportion of household disposable income will be at their highest since 1989, just before the crash in house prices of the early 1990s—and this on top of record energy bills. No wonder consumer confidence and business confidence are weak and there is every prospect of stagnation, perhaps even recession, in the coming months. What is the Government’s response? It is tax cuts for the rich, benefit cuts for the poor and the prospect of a new round of austerity in public sector spending, all dressed up as a plan for growth.

How, then, are we to explain the Chancellor resorting to swingeing tax cuts, worth £43 billion at the latest count, in conditions of high—and rising—interest rates and overstretched, underfunded public services? The Government’s position, at least in public, is that tax cuts will be paid for by increased economic growth, which they will also help to generate in combination with cutting red tape and easing planning regulations. The problem, however, is that almost no one—certainly not the markets—believes that these things are likely to happen. There is no evidence from either comparison across countries or past experience that lower taxes are associated with higher productivity growth and, hence, higher trend rates of growth in output. Of course, in the right circumstances, cutting taxes can stimulate demand and so raise output in the short run, but that works only when inflation is low and there is plenty of spare capacity, which is far from the case at the moment.

As for deregulation, easing planning regulations may help a little if it is not thwarted by local opposition, including from Tory interests. However, the perennial and often counterproductive war on red tape and gimmicks such as investment zones will have a marginal impact at best.

If we cannot rely on increased growth to fund the Chancellor’s tax cuts, there is only one option for avoiding an unsustainable spiral of increasing government debt: large-scale cuts in government spending. Perhaps it is not unduly cynical to suggest that shrinking the state may have been a secondary—even primary, in some quarters—objective of the tax-cutting strategy. That would certainly be consistent with the decision to sidestep the scrutiny of the OBR when the tax cuts were announced. In any case—

Baroness Bloomfield of Hinton Waldrist (Con)

The noble Lord has had quite a lot of latitude with the advisory speaking time but is now significantly over. Perhaps he could think about drawing his comments to a close.

Lord Low of Dalston (CB)

I am on my last sentence.

In any case, if the tax cuts are to be sustained, substantial cuts in government spending are on the way. The paradox is that this is the opposite of what is required for a credible growth plan.

October 16, 2022