Angus Robertson – 2014 Parliamentary Question to the Ministry of Defence

The below Parliamentary question was asked by Angus Robertson on 2014-06-26.

To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, what quantitative criteria have been used to set to remote the risk probability of a collision involving a Tornado aircraft.

Mr Philip Dunne

Military Aviation Authority Regulatory Article 1210 defines categories for quantifying the likelihood of a risk as follows:

“Likelihood is assessed with respect to the likelihood of the assessed consequence of a hazard. This is based on the likelihood of a single accident resulting in harm for a particular fleet. The appropriate category listed below must be used:
a. Frequent: Likely to occur at least several times a year.
b. Occasional: Likely to occur one or more times per year.
c. Remote: Likely to occur one or more times in 10 years.
d. Improbable: Unlikely to occur in 10 years.”

A panel of suitably qualified and experienced persons from the Tornado Force calculated the risk likelihood for the Tornado risk register based on this definition.