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Tag: 2022

  • Steven Bonnar – 2022 Speech on Aortic Dissection

    Steven Bonnar – 2022 Speech on Aortic Dissection

    The speech made by Steven Bonnar, the SNP MP for Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, in Westminster Hall, the House of Commons, on 13 December 2022.

    It is a pleasure to see you in the Chair today, Mr Pritchard.

    I begin by paying tribute to the hon. Member for Mid Derbyshire (Mrs Latham), not only for securing this debate, but for the strength and courage she has shown in leading it. My thoughts and those of all in my party are with her and her family after the tragic loss of her son, Ben. May he rest in eternal peace.

    No parent should witness the loss of their child, and I welcome the positive and heartfelt contributions from across the House today about taking more effective action in preventing this disease. As we have heard, 2,000 people a year in the United Kingdom lose their lives from aortic dissection. It is a treatable condition; indeed, it has a better than 80% survival rate when it is diagnosed and treated in time. Yet today, in the year 2022, 50% of people who are struck by this condition ultimately lose their life.

    The British Heart Foundation has done a tremendous amount of work in this particular area, and I thank it for its dedication. In Scotland, the BHF has worked alongside the Scottish Government, Members of the Scottish Parliament and local NHS boards to champion all those who are working to beat heart and circulatory disease. Through their record-high health funding, the Scottish Government have supported and will continue to support health research and innovation, as a vital part of pandemic recovery and their wider aims to improve the health of our populations.

    In 2020, the Scottish Government announced a one-off £75 million increase in funding for Scottish universities to ensure that they can protect their world-leading research programmes against the financial impact of covid-19 and the other crises that we are having to live through, whether it be the food crisis, the energy crisis or everything else. That significant intervention helped to secure the jobs and training needed to support ongoing and future research work.

    Dr Alex Fletcher is leading a study on behalf of the University of Edinburgh that is monitoring around 60 patients at risk of dissection, which aims to develop a more effective screening tool. That study could not have been conducted without the SNP Scottish Government recognising the important work and impact of medical research charities, and I urge the UK Government to uplift support for medical research to ensure that vital studies can continue and more positive breakthroughs can be made.

    However, research is not enough. The strategic direction of the UK Government must change if they are truly committed to supporting those with aortic dissection. This is particularly the case when the covid-19 pandemic has brought an even greater need for action into sharp focus. The pandemic had a significant impact on people with heart disease and on the services that support them.

    In recognising that material societal change, the Scottish Government have published their heart disease action plan, supported with an investment of £2.2 million. The four priorities of that plan are prevention, timely diagnosis, treatment and care, and workforce.

    The Scottish Government have outlined the importance of providing appropriate support to enable people with heart disease to live well with their condition. That means identifying ways to support people experiencing the emotional and psychological impacts of heart disease, and giving as many of them as possible access to specialist support, including vital rehabilitation services and, wherever necessary, supporting access to palliative care.

    These measures may seem simple, but they are fundamental to helping minimise the presence of heart disease within our communities. I encourage the Minister to follow the Scottish Government’s footsteps, and to learn and share best practice methods to ensure that aortic dissection cannot continue to blight people’s lives, and have a difficult and lasting impact on their families.

  • Jim Shannon – 2022 Speech on Aortic Dissection

    Jim Shannon – 2022 Speech on Aortic Dissection

    The speech made by Jim Shannon, the DUP MP for Strangford, in Westminster Hall, the House of Commons, on 13 December 2022.

    First, I commend the hon. Member for Mid Derbyshire (Mrs Latham). It is never easy coming to Westminster Hall to lead a debate; it is even harder to come and tell a personal story—one that is so heartbreaking for the hon. Lady. She has made us more aware of the condition. We sympathise greatly with her on the loss of her son Ben. We support her and what she asks for.

    No parent should have to go through the horror of losing a child. I have the greatest respect for the hon. Lady for coming here today and talking about it, which is often the hardest thing to do. As my party’s spokesperson on health, it is great to be here to support wholeheartedly her call for better patient pathways and more funding for aortic dissections. She set out a really good case and has asked for a number of things. I endorse what she has asked for and will give some factual background to the debate.

    Aortic dissection kills over 2,000 people a year. The UK statistics are clear: three to four people per 100,000 are diagnosed with aortic dissection each year. It typically presents with abrupt onset chest, back or abdominal pain that is severe in its intensity, or is described as ripping or tearing, particularly in the patient with a high-risk condition such as Marfan syndrome or a family history of aortic disease.

    The hon. Lady was right to refer to diagnosis. We often refer to diagnosis in these debates, and she has asked for work on that. The Chair of the Health and Social Care Committee, the hon. Member for Winchester (Steve Brine), has taken her thoughts on board, and I know that next year, or whenever the inquiry is done, when the hon. Lady makes her contribution, we can expect a fairly good response from him. He will never be found wanting in that regard. It is good to have him here to hear the story.

    By improving diagnosis of aortic dissection in terms of familial connection, we can improve patient pathways to get better treatment and easier maintenance of the disease. Aortic Dissection Awareness UK & Ireland is the national patient charity for aortic dissection in the UK. It was founded by a small group of people who were diagnosed with aortic dissection in 2016. The charity provides vital information and support for patients and families affected by the condition, which the hon. Lady outlined so well, including the families who are left to deal with what happens. The charity works with healthcare providers to improve diagnosis and treatment and reduce healthcare inequalities. It partners with researchers to bring forward new insights that will improve future care for aortic dissection patients. In addition, the Aortic Dissection Charitable Trust research advisory group has been actively promoting research in the field of aortic dissection, aiming to save lives and improve the quality of life for those suffering from the condition now and in the future.

    The hon. Lady asked very clearly for more to be done. The Minister and all of us were listening intently to her contribution. It would be very hard for anyone in this House not to respond in a positive fashion to her requests. More needs to be done across the whole of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, especially in co-operation with the devolved nations. This is something we should all work together on. We can always exchange ideas in these debates. The hon. Lady and I have both participated in debates in the past 24 hours. There was an Adjournment debate last night and a debate this morning at 11 am—the Minister has been kept extremely busy. We always have a helpful response from her and I look forward to something similar this afternoon. We owe a duty of care to the hon. Member for Mid Derbyshire, and I am sure the Minister will respond in a positive fashion.

    We also need to produce a research strategy that is developed and implemented as a support network for all. The Royal College of Emergency Medicine has made the diagnosis of acute aortic syndrome and dissection one of its top 10 priorities, and we must do the same across the whole of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. I encourage the Minister to engage with her counterparts in Northern Ireland and other devolved Administrations to ensure that we approach this in collaboration, with all of us asking for the same thing and all working together to achieve the same goal and ensure the correct patient pathways and sustainable funding for aortic dissections.

    Again, I commend the hon. Member for Mid Derbyshire; I think we were all particularly moved by her contribution. This debate would be suitably concluded with the support that the Minister can give us. I very much look forward to hearing from the two shadow Ministers: the hon. Member for Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (Steven Bonnar) and the hon. Member for Enfield North (Feryal Clark).

  • Pauline Latham – 2022 Speech on Aortic Dissection

    Pauline Latham – 2022 Speech on Aortic Dissection

    The speech made by Pauline Latham, the Conservative MP for Mid Derbyshire, in Westminster Hall, the House of Commons on 13 December 2022.

    I beg to move,

    That this House has considered patient pathways and research funding for aortic dissection.

    It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Pritchard. After many applications, I am delighted to have secured an opportunity to have this very important debate. Hon. Members may be aware that this is an extremely difficult and personal topic for me, but I hope that sharing my experiences will prompt action that could save lives in the future.

    I will begin with a case study, which happens to be my personal story, then move on to what we do in this place to improve patient pathways and research funding for aortic dissection. Before I do so, I must draw the House’s attention to my entry in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests: I am an unpaid trustee of the Aortic Dissection Charitable Trust, a charity that I helped to set up.

    In the early hours of 11 December 2018, I received a phone call that no mother would ever want. I was told that our son Ben had died. Four years later, we all still feel numb. It seems implausible that Ben, a gregarious 44-year-old with two children and a loving wife, will not simply walk back into our lives. Ben died after suffering an aortic dissection. He had been feeling unwell the previous day, but was sent home after spending four hours in A&E and told to return the next day if he did not feel better. Tragically, the emergency doctors had not understood his symptoms and had not come up with a diagnosis.

    Aortic dissection is a tear in the aorta, the body’s largest artery, which carries blood from the heart to the brain, limbs and vital organs. It is a condition that affects approximately 4,000 people a year in the UK and, like Ben, almost all of them are unaware that they have it. Half of them—almost 2,000 people—die soon after the dissection occurs, which is more than die from road traffic accidents in this country. Five hundred of those who die reach hospital, but sadly, as in Ben’s case, their condition is not diagnosed quickly enough, or at all. The other 1,500 die almost immediately after the acute event.

    Many of these deaths are preventable. With proactive genetic screening for family members of those who have suffered an aortic dissection and with better treatment of high blood pressure, many of these deaths could be avoided. I am delighted to learn today that the Minister of State, Department of Health and Social Care, my hon. Friend the Member for Colchester (Will Quince), has announced a fund of £175 million for cutting-edge genomics. As a charity, we would be happy to work with the Department on this issue.

    I have to admit that, like most people, I knew nothing about aortic dissection before Ben died, but knowing what a gap his death has left in our family I have immersed myself in efforts to prevent other tragedies. In late 2020, with the eminent cardiac surgeon Graham Cooper and the long-time aortic dissection campaigner, patient and public voice co-ordinator of the NHS cardiac clinical reference group, Catherine Fowler, whose father died in Ireland from this condition, I helped to set up the Aortic Dissection Charitable Trust. I am delighted that Graham and Catherine are in the Gallery and listening to the debate. The trust is now a leading UK-registered charity that aims to unite patients, families and the medical community. Our mission is to improve diagnosis, increase survival rates and reduce disability caused by aortic dissection.

    Our work encompasses the whole patient pathway, from prevention to diagnosis, treatment, follow-up and support for all those living with aortic dissection. So far, the charity has designed and delivered accredited education events reaching over 3,000 medical professionals, and produced a fantastic set of patient resource videos to support those living with aortic dissection and their families. Instrumental in creating the videos was “Whispering” Bob Harris, who has suffered an aortic dissection and given up a huge amount of time to be an ambassador for the charity. I am delighted that Bob is also in the Gallery today.

    The charity has created an online learning portal for the medical community, with learning modules that cover all the multidisciplinary aspects, in order to improve education on aortic dissection in the medical community, and ultimately to improve patient experiences and outcomes. The free and accessible learning portal, produced with experts in the field of aortic dissection, will be launched this week. We have also attended a number of medical conferences and presented to cardiac specialists and emergency medicine doctors, most recently in October at the European Emergency Medicine Congress 2022 in Berlin. We have designed and delivered national all-day education symposiums to establish learning communities and to increase knowledge and education for paramedics, emergency medics and surgeons in Scotland, Ireland and England, with many more such events planned. I have to say that the “we” are mainly the other trustees, because I am very much the junior and more silent trustee of the partnership.

    The charity has also worked with NHS England and a group of clinical experts on the design of the aortic dissection toolkit. Seven key principles have now been established, setting out best practice for the patient pathways from the point of treatment through to diagnosis. We are delighted that the toolkit has reached the implementation phase, and the charity is actively supporting this critical phase by working with the regions that have reached out to the charity for support.

    The charity has also launched research grants to fund research into how we can better diagnose and treat aortic dissection. For my part, I have sought to raise the issue in the House of Commons, including at Prime Minister’s questions in March and since then in meetings with Ministers. I thank the Minister responding to the debate for her commitment to aortic dissection and for having taken the time to meet the charity trustees last month.

    In almost two years, the charity has had a big impact, but there is much more that we can do to save 2,000 lives a year in this country. I would like to set out some of the important changes we would like to see. So far, I have spoken about 2,000 deaths a year and 4,000 cases of aortic dissection, but a worrying statistic is that as our population ages, we expect to see about 7,000 cases of aortic dissection every year by 2050. It is crucial that we take steps now to improve the patient pathway, to ensure that as few of these cases as possible are fatal.

    It is surprising but true that there is a lack of detailed and accurate data regarding the incidence, treatment and patient outcomes for acute aortic dissection in England. That is particularly true for patients like Ben, who do not reach a specialist treatment centre alive. Such data would assist in understanding the true scale of the problem and where any interventions might be directed. Of course our family understands that, even if he had been diagnosed, Ben might not have survived the catastrophic event, which happened in the middle of the night, but our passion to learn more about why he died seems to have highlighted gaps in the system, which, if filled, will help others. The least we can do is to press for that to be so. No child deserves to have their mother or father taken away, no wife should be bereft at the sudden loss of a husband, and no parents should have to bury their son.

    Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)

    The hon. Lady is making an incredibly passionate and personal contribution to the House. We all recognise that this is a subject very close to her heart, and we recognise her passion and commitment.

    Mrs Latham

    I thank the hon. Gentleman for his intervention. It is important that all parties work together to make this better.

    First, I encourage the Minister to see what more can be done to increase and improve data collection around aortic dissection, to make as much of the data as possible publicly available to assist with clinical research. Secondly, I would like to focus on improvements that we can make to the patient pathway. The single most important improvement is in diagnosis. For those accurately diagnosed, more than 80% survive.

    I will come back to how we can focus research funding. For now, I would like to emphasise that increased research funding for diagnosis is required. The other improvement on diagnosis that the Government can make is to ensure that doctors in emergency departments receive adequate training and advice on the symptoms of aortic dissection and how to spot a potential case. A freedom of information request recently showed that only half of NHS trusts had a policy or procedure concerning the diagnosis of aortic dissection in the emergency department and that only a small proportion used the guidelines from the Royal College of Emergency Medicine or from the Royal College of Radiologists. The charity is doing a huge amount to educate medical professionals. Can the Minister comment on what central guidance has been made available from the NHS for emergency departments?

    The launch of the NHS aortic dissection toolkit, which I mentioned, is incredibly important, but it only covers the patient pathway from the point of diagnosis to treatment and does not cover diagnosis itself. Can the Minister commit to considering extending that toolkit or working with experts and the charity to design and develop a new toolkit for diagnosis of aortic dissection, which can be rolled out in all emergency medicine settings around the country?

    Dr Dan Poulter (Central Suffolk and North Ipswich) (Con)

    I pay tribute to my hon. Friend’s bravery in bringing this debate to the Chamber. I know that she has been through a lot personally. As she says, no parent would want to experience the death of a child as a result of aortic dissection and her subsequent and recent work to bring this debate here and her work with the charity is commendable. I am sure that it will lead to many lives being saved in future.

    On the point about diagnosis, I remember from my days in the emergency department that fast scanning, which is a simple technique that uses an ultrasound scan to check for free fluid in the abdomen, was a very important tool that we could use to detect aortic dissection. It is a simple thing to train ED doctors to do, but that training is not available in the way that it should be. Will my hon. Friend join me in pressing the Minister to ensure that the focus is not always on service delivery in ED? If we are going to have good clinicians, we need to have the right training for them and this is an area that would save lives. Can the Minister put some funding aside specifically for that purpose?

    Mrs Latham

    I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention, knowing as he does what it is like to work in an emergency department. A lot of people come through the department, but the study he refers to about the abdominal aortic aneurysm was only for men of a certain age. This affects people from 17, or even younger, to 90. Although that sounds like a good idea, I am not sure that it would work in practice. We need more CT scanners used more frequently in emergency departments, and that is what is missing in part from emergency medicine settings.

    The next phase in the patient pathway for those who have been correctly and speedily diagnosed is treatment. As I mentioned, 80% of those diagnosed survive. That is not enough and research is ongoing into better methods of treatment. However, one area where we can certainly improve is long-term treatments that do not require further medical interventions. There is currently a call for research proposals into that from the National Institute for Health and Care Research. That is excellent news and I encourage the Minister to make as much money as possible available for this area of research.

    After treatment, it is imperative that the follow-up treatment for aortic dissection patients and their families is of the highest quality. Two thirds of survivors of aortic dissections have some kind of post-traumatic stress disorder. They need specialist treatment by somebody who understands their conditions. Furthermore, aortic dissection survivors have a long-term condition that places them at risk of future complications. They need to be monitored by specialist teams and currently, that provision is highly variable. Teams exist in some specialist hospitals, but not all patients are reliably followed up, and too often that is a failure to take a holistic approach to follow up. The employment of specialist nurses in every aortic centre, similar to those in cancer and palliative care, would greatly strengthen follow-up.

    The massive improvement in the patient pathway would not be expensive. Although I understand that every penny is being counted in the current situation, to provide a specialist nurse in each of the 29 NHS centres in the country that deal with aortic dissection, for two days a week, would cost less than £400,000 in total per year. The charity has explored the replication of the Macmillan nursing model for aortic nurses and, with funding, would be well positioned to support the design and roll-out of that initiative. Given the enormity of the NHS budget, I hope that is something that the Minister will confirm that she will look into.

    The final stage of the patient pathway is genetic screening. About a third of patients who suffer an aortic dissection have some sort of genetic predisposition to the condition. That is why I welcome funding. Screening relatives of sufferers can detect those at risk and proactive treatment can significantly reduce their risk. However, that requires specialised clinical genetics input, access to which is, again, very variable. The technology exists to do that, and it would certainly save lives every single year.

    There are two steps the Minister could take to improve this stage of the patient pathway. First, the employment of the specialist nurses I mentioned would be of great assistance. They would lead on the patient’s follow-up plan, part of which would include screening for their relatives. The second step would be for the Minister to facilitate a series of meetings between the relevant professional societies and appropriate NHS staff, to agree and implement a set of NHS guidelines for genetic screening for those suffering aortic dissection and for their relatives.

    As I have set out, there are improvements to be made all along the patient pathway, which would go a long way towards saving many of the 2,000 patients every year who would otherwise die from aortic dissections. If nothing is done, that number will only increase in the coming years, so it is crucial that we act now.

    Turning to the opportunities for investment in research, which would make a huge difference to the diagnosis and treatment of aortic dissection.

    Steve Brine (Winchester) (Con)

    On the point about genetics and screening, the Health and Social Care Committee, which I chair, will be doing a big inquiry next year on prevention, and one of the things we will be looking at is upstream prevention for cancers and some of the other big killers. I extend the offer to my hon. Friend and the charity to get in touch with us when we launch that inquiry to give evidence on the screening that they are proposing. We would be interested in looking at that and to take evidence in written or oral form. That inquiry is all about saving lives. What she has said makes a lot of sense to me—it could do just that.

    Mrs Latham

    I thank my hon. Friend. I am sure the charity would be delighted to come and give evidence. This is a condition that nobody has ever heard of; it is not just about raising awareness, but changing outcomes, and I hope that the Committee’s inquiry into saving lives can help to save some of those 2,000 people. Obviously, they will not all be saved, but 2,000 is a huge number—it is not a very rare condition, but nobody knows about it until it devastates their family. I am delighted to accept that offer on behalf the charity.

    Two studies that the charity is supporting known as DAShED—diagnosis of aortic syndrome in the emergency department—and ASES, the aortic syndrome evidence synthesis, are looking at the development of decision tools for use in emergency medicine to ensure that aortic dissections are diagnosed as quickly as possible and can then be effectively treated. These studies are designed to look at the available evidence to improve diagnosis of aortic dissection. Once concluded, there will need to be a second round of funding to measure the impact of implementing those recommendations. Studies that focus on improved diagnosis, while important, are just the first step. The critical breakthrough will be made by the identification of biomarkers and artificial intelligence to detect unusual patterns of presentation of aortic dissection. This research has the potential to save 10 lives a week according to the charity, and I hope that the Minister will comment on what her Department is doing to increase the funding available for research into better diagnosis for aortic dissection.

    As I mentioned, this is not just about diagnosis but about treatment. The NIHR has issued a call for research proposals into methods of treatment that would reduce the need for further medical intervention down the line. I know that budgets are likely to remain tight for some time, given the current economic conditions, but I repeat my plea for the Minister to find some money and recommit to the importance of research funding. We must improve how we diagnose and treat these conditions. Of course, the better we diagnose and treat aortic dissection, the less money we will spend in future on treating so many cases. Some 45% of people who have an aortic dissection are under the age of 60, so being diagnosed and treated early allows them to live a life with their family and continue to contribute economically to society.

    It is not an exaggeration to say that the improvements I set out both in the patient pathway and on research funding have the potential to save hundreds of lives a year. As I have explained, the number of aortic dissections will only increase with our ageing population, so it would be wise to act now. The charity is partnering in the implementation roll-out of the NHS aortic dissection toolkit across the country, and it has already received a positive and enthusiastic response, but there is more to be done. As I mentioned, there is an opportunity for the Minister to endorse the design and implementation of further toolkits to address the current challenges with diagnosis, elective surgery follow-up and aftercare, covering those aspects of the patient pathway that are not included in the existing toolkit. Improvements in the patient pathway and research funding, such as those that I have set out, are greatly needed, and I hope that the Minister can carefully consider all the recommendations.

    Too often in government and in this place, we speak about tragedies in terms of scale—of the numbers of lives lost or numbers of people affected by a catastrophe—but it is all too easy to forget that behind every single statistic there is a family whose lives have been upended by these terrible events. While 4,000 aortic dissection patients a year is a huge number, we must remember that it is much more than that: it is 4,000 people with a family—parents, children, husbands, wives, siblings, relatives and friends. None of them are likely to be aware of aortic dissection before it happens. In Ben Latham’s case, the family was mine, and every single one of us is still feeling the effects of this awful condition that we did not know existed. It has been important for me, as for the other trustees and ambassadors of the charity, to do everything we can to improve the survival rates and treatment of future sufferers, so that other families do not have to go through what we have been through.

  • PRESS RELEASE : Presentations by OSCE Committee chairs – UK response [December 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : Presentations by OSCE Committee chairs – UK response [December 2022]

    The press release issued by the Foreign Office on 15 December 2022.

    Deputy Ambassador Deirdre Brown thanks the three OSCE Committee chairs for their focus on Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine this year.

    Thank you, Chair. I thank the Chairs of the three Committees for presenting to the Permanent Council today. Ambassadors, we have been grateful to you and to our Chair-in-Office, for your strong leadership over the past year. We are also grateful to your teams. Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine strikes at the very core of the obligations we have all freely signed up to as members of this organisation, including “refraining from the threat or use of force, the inviolability of frontiers [and the] territorial integrity of States”. Under your stewardship, and guided by our CiO, OSCE Committees have striven to collectively uphold these principles because they form the foundation of the security of every State represented in this room.

    Ambassador Kinnear, we have seen in the Security Committee that the repercussions of this war are wide-ranging and relevant to our work on transnational threats. Our meetings this year have highlighted the impacts on civilians when critical services are damaged, as well as the role of States in protecting these services in armed conflict. We heard about the spike in demand for sexual access to Ukrainian women and girls, and that “for predators and human traffickers, the war in Ukraine is not a tragedy. It’s an opportunity”. We heard how border guards in Ukraine and other States have been heroic in responding to the movement of Ukrainian refugees. And we were advised not to wait for conflict to be resolved to deal with the underlying risks of organised crime which can thrive in conflict situations.

    As we look to next year, responding to these repercussions will be no less important. The OSCE has a role to play to prevent and mitigate knock-on crises in crime, trafficking, terrorism and extremism, and the UK will continue to support the Security Committee to that end.

    Ambassador Raunig, thank you for your work this year. You have shown agility in highlighting new economic and environmental challenges throughout 2022, particularly: the damage being done to Ukraine’s natural environment as a result of Russia’s war of aggression; the effects of Russia’s invasion on food security; and the terrible – and potentially catastrophic – consequences of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. We welcome continued focus on these topics in the second dimension as Ukraine continues to be subjected to Russian belligerence and as the international community comes together to help rebuild Ukraine.

    Ambassador Karlsen, thank you for your leadership of the Human Dimension Committee during these most exacting times for human rights in the OSCE region – when fundamental freedoms are challenged, so is our collective security. We have particularly appreciated the Committee’s focus on Ukraine, including Russia’s blatant disregard of human dimension commitments it signed up to, alongside spotlighting Ukrainian voices. Looking to 2023, we hope that there will continue to be a strong focus on the brave human rights defenders from Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus and that the recommendations in the Moscow Mechanism reports will inform the sessions. We have been starkly reminded this year that internal repression and external aggression are two sides of the same coin. When a State places a stranglehold on the freedoms of its own people, it sets the conditions for, and enables, aggression abroad.

    To close, as my Foreign Secretary said earlier this week, “today we have no higher priority than to support our Ukrainian friends until they prevail, as they inevitably will.” Our shared OSCE principles and commitments sit at the heart of Euro-Atlantic security, and we will continue to work in the three Committees – with you Ambassador Raunig, our incoming Chairs, with our North Macedonian CiO, and with the OSCE Secretariat, institutions, and field missions – to uphold them. Not just for Ukraine, but for all of us in this room.

    Thank you.

  • PRESS RELEASE : Policing to receive up to £287 million funding boost next year [December 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : Policing to receive up to £287 million funding boost next year [December 2022]

    The press release issued by the Home Office on 15 December 2022.

    The 2023/24 funding package will see an increase of up to £267 million on last year and means policing will receive up to £17.2 billion in total for 2023/24.

    The police sector will receive a nominal funding boost of up to £287 million next year to help victims feel safe and deliver more visible policing, the Home Secretary Suella Braverman has announced.

    The rise will take total funding for policing up to £17.2 billion and mean police and crime commissioners across the 43 police forces in England and Wales will receive a nominal increase of up to £523 million from government grants and precept income to focus on getting the basics right, such as driving down anti-social behaviour and neighbourhood crime which can so easily rip through our communities.

    The government is giving police crime commissioners in England the ability to raise up to £349 million, through a council tax precept limit of £15.

    This provisional settlement will provide £1.1 billion towards national policing priorities, including tackling the scourge of serious violence, county lines, exploitation, abuse, fraud and cyber crime.

    Funding for counter-terrorism policing will continue to total over £1 billion, including continued funding for armed policing and the Counter Terrorism Operations Centre.

    We are also giving policing the funding they need to maintain the 20,000 additional police officers recruited as part of the government’s unprecedented campaign to put more police on the streets, ensuring our forces respond to crime effectively and to take a more proactive response in managing crime demand.

    Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, said:

    Our police make sacrifices every day to protect the British people, and I am steadfast in my admiration for our hardworking, brave and dedicated officers.

    It is vital that we continue to invest in the priorities that matter most to our communities, and we must do more to cut crime and restore confidence in our police.

    With over 15,000 additional officers already recruited and thousands more on the way, this package will support our forces to get the basics right and keep communities safe across country.

    We will continue to improve our criminal justice system for victims by prioritising the funding commitments made in the rape review and investing in a new victim satisfaction survey to shine a light on performance and drive improvements in the support police forces provide to victims.

    Through police and government efforts to tackle the crime that hits our communities the hardest, since 2019:

    • 90,000 weapons have been taken off our streets
    • over 49,000 violent offences have been prevented and 260,000 vulnerable young people have been supported through ‘Grip’ hotspot policing and Violence Reduction Units.

    The publication of the provisional funding settlement opens a period of consultation. The final police funding settlement will be debated in Parliament ahead of the new financial year.

  • PRESS RELEASE : MOD launches independent inquiry to investigate allegations of wrongdoing by British Armed Forces in Afghanistan [December 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : MOD launches independent inquiry to investigate allegations of wrongdoing by British Armed Forces in Afghanistan [December 2022]

    The press release issued by the Ministry of Defence on 15 December 2022.

    The Ministry of Defence has today established an independent statutory inquiry to investigate and report on allegations of wrongdoing by the British Armed Forces in relation to their conduct of deliberate detention operations in Afghanistan. The inquiry will investigate alleged activity during the period mid-2010 to mid-2013.

    The inquiry will also look at the adequacy of MOD’s response to those concerns and assess what lessons can be learned. This will take into account the progress that has already been made across defence in holding our Armed Forces personnel to account for their actions, and the handling of allegations that were later found to have insufficient evidence for any prosecutions.

    The inquiry will be chaired by Lord Justice Haddon-Cave, a Senior Presiding Judge for England and Wales. Lord Justice Haddon-Cave has previous experience in defence, having been appointed by the then Secretary of State for Defence to conduct The Nimrod Review into broader issues surrounding the loss of the RAF Nimrod MR2 aircraft XV230 in Afghanistan in 2006.

    Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace said:

    Defence has made a number of changes in recent years when dealing with serious allegations of wrongdoing against our Armed Forces. Many of these are already in operation, including the creation of the Defence Serious Crime Unit.

    While there have been several comprehensive investigations into the events in question, if there are further lessons to learn it is right that we consider those fully to ensure all allegations are handled appropriately and in equal measure to ensure our personnel are adequately protected from unnecessary reinvestigations.

    Defence has worked hard to ensure the processes in place to maintain justice in the Armed Forces are effective, and allegations of criminal wrongdoing arising from any future operations are raised and investigated appropriately.

    This includes implementing recommendations from the independent Henriques Review in 2020, led by former judge Sir Richard Henriques. The purpose of that review was to ensure that in relation to complex and serious allegations of wrongdoing against UK Armed Forces on overseas operations, the UK has the most up to date and future-proof framework, skills and processes in place, and that improvements can be made where necessary.

    Approximately a third of the recommendations focused on the establishment of the Defence Serious Crime Unit, under a newly appointed Provost Marshal, which is now operational and will further strengthen the operational effectiveness of the service police and Service Justice System to deal with serious offences reported in defence.

    MOD is committed to supporting its people. All members of the Armed Forces, including the Reserves and civilians, plus veterans, will be entitled to legal and welfare support where they face allegations that relate to actions taken during their employment or service, and where they were performing their duties.

    Next steps for the inquiry will be detailed in due course.

  • Lindsay Hoyle – 2022 Comments on 80th Anniversary of Holocaust Being Debated in Commons

    Lindsay Hoyle – 2022 Comments on 80th Anniversary of Holocaust Being Debated in Commons

    The comments made by Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House of Commons, on Twitter on 15 December 2022. The speech referenced was made by Anthony Eden on 17 December 2022.

    Today I led a one-minute silence to mark 80 years since the UK first publicly recognised what we now know as the Holocaust. The Government’s shocking announcement in December 1942 prompted a spontaneous moment of silence – reported to be the first in the history of the Chamber.

  • Bank of England – 2022 Statement on Interest Rates

    Bank of England – 2022 Statement on Interest Rates

    The statement issued by the Bank of England on 15 December 2022.

    Monetary Policy Summary, December 2022

    The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 14 December 2022, the MPC voted by a majority of 6-3 to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.5%. Two members preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 3%, and one member preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 3.75%.

    In the MPC’s November Monetary Policy Report projections, conditioned on the elevated path of market interest rates at that time, the UK economy was expected to be in recession for a prolonged period and CPI inflation was expected to remain very high in the near term. Inflation was expected to fall sharply from mid-2023, to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection. This reflected a negative contribution from energy prices, as well as the emergence of an increasing degree of economic slack and a steadily rising unemployment rate. The risks around that declining path for inflation were judged to be to the upside.

    Domestic wage and price pressures are elevated. There has been limited news in other domestic and global economic data relative to the November Report projections.

    Most indicators of global supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but global inflationary pressures remain elevated. Advanced-economy government bond yields have fallen, particularly at longer maturities. The sterling effective exchange rate has appreciated by around 2¾%. There has been some reduction in UK fixed-term mortgage rates since the Committee’s previous meeting, but rates remain materially higher than in the summer.

    Bank staff now expect UK GDP to decline by 0.1% in 2022 Q4, 0.2 percentage points stronger than expected in the November Report. Household consumption remains weak and most housing market indicators have continued to soften. Surveys of investment intentions have also weakened further.

    Although labour demand has begun to ease, the labour market remains tight. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7% in the three months to October. Vacancies have fallen back, but the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio remains at a very elevated level. Annual growth of private sector regular pay picked up further in the three months to October, to 6.9%, 0.5 percentage points stronger than the expectation at the time of the November Report.

    Twelve-month CPI inflation fell from 11.1% in October to 10.7% in November. The November figure was slightly below expectations at the time of the November Report. The exchange of open letters between the Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer is being published alongside this monetary policy announcement. Although the introduction of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) in October has limited the rise in CPI inflation, the contribution of household energy bills to inflation has risen further. Since the MPC’s previous meeting, core goods price inflation has fallen back, while annual food and services price inflation have strengthened. CPI inflation is expected to continue to fall gradually over the first quarter of 2023, as earlier increases in energy and other goods prices drop out of the annual comparison.

    The announcement in the Autumn Statement that the extension of the EPG will cap household unit energy prices at a level consistent with a typical household dual fuel bill of £3,000 per year from April 2023 to March 2024 implies a slightly lower near-term path for energy bills than the working assumption made in the November Report. All else equal, this will reduce the MPC’s forecast for CPI inflation in 2023 Q2 by around ¾ of a percentage point.

    Other additional near-term fiscal support was also announced in the Autumn Statement, but fiscal policy is expected to tighten by progressively larger amounts from fiscal year 2024-25 onwards. Overall, Bank staff estimate that these measures, combined with the impact of the EPG, will increase the level of GDP by 0.4% at a one-year horizon, leave it broadly unchanged at a two-year horizon, but reduce the level of GDP by 0.5% in three years’ time, relative to what was assumed in the November Report. The overall impact on the CPI inflation projection at all of these horizons is estimated to be small.

    The MPC’s remit is clear that the inflation target applies at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. The framework recognises that there will be occasions when inflation will depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. The economy has been subject to a succession of very large shocks. Monetary policy will ensure that, as the adjustment to these shocks continues, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term. Monetary policy is also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the 2% target.

    The Committee has voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.5%, at this meeting. The labour market remains tight and there has been evidence of inflationary pressures in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence and thus justifies a further forceful monetary policy response.

    The majority of the Committee judges that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the November Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target.

    There are considerable uncertainties around the outlook. The Committee continues to judge that, if the outlook suggests more persistent inflationary pressures, it will respond forcefully, as necessary.

    The MPC will take the actions necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit. The Committee will, as always, consider and decide the appropriate level of Bank Rate at each meeting.

    Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 14 December 2022

    1: Before turning to its immediate policy decision, the Committee discussed: the international economy; monetary and financial conditions; demand and output; and supply, costs and prices.

    The international economy

    2: UK-weighted world GDP had increased by 0.5% in 2022 Q3, stronger than had been expected in the November Monetary Policy Report, and was expected to increase by 0.1% in Q4, in line with the projection in the November Report. Most measures of global supply chain bottlenecks had eased, but global inflationary pressures had remained elevated.

    3: In the euro area, GDP had increased by 0.3% in 2022 Q3, stronger than incorporated into the November Report but weaker than the 0.8% growth in Q2. Bank staff expected GDP to fall by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, a little weaker than had been anticipated in the November Report. The composite output PMI had increased slightly in November but had remained in contractionary territory for the fifth month in a row. The weakness had been broad based across euro-area economies and across sectors.

    4: In the United States, GDP had increased by 0.7% in 2022 Q3, stronger than had been expected in the November Report. The share of services in consumption had risen throughout the third quarter, tentatively pointing to the expected rotation in US demand, although this had partly reversed in October. In the fourth quarter, US GDP was expected to rise by 0.1%, broadly in line with the expectation in the November Report. Non-farm payrolls had increased by 263,000 in November and the unemployment rate had remained unchanged at 3.7%.

    5: In China, a sharp increase in Covid cases had contributed to a slowing in activity. China’s quarterly GDP growth in 2022 Q4 was likely to be some way below the 1.4% rate that had been anticipated at the time of the November Report. Covid outbreaks and related restrictions had weighed on consumption, and import growth had contracted sharply as a result. Chinese export growth had also contracted in November, reflecting slowing global growth and some Covid-related disruption to production. The Chinese government had issued new guidelines recently that had eased some zero-Covid policies. The weakening property sector had continued to have a negative impact on activity.

    6: Most measures of global supply chain constraints had eased in recent months, broadly in line with the assumption in the November Report. This was evident in the movements in October and November of an indicator of supply constraints based on global PMI surveys, although that indicator had remained elevated compared with historical averages. In China, that measure had increased in October and November, but had remained below recent peaks and around its historical average. Shipping costs had fallen across a number of regions. Further Covid outbreaks and any associated disruption to output in China could pose a risk to global supply chains in future, although the precise effect would depend on the Chinese economy’s response to changes in Covid policies and the extent to which global supply chains had become more resilient.

    7: Energy price movements had been mixed since the MPC’s previous meeting. At the time of the December MPC meeting, the Brent crude oil spot price was around $80 a barrel, having fallen by around 15%, although only to around the same level as at the start of the year. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility spot price, a measure of European wholesale gas prices, was €137 per MWh, up 18% since the previous MPC meeting. Gas futures prices had remained elevated, reflecting concerns around the impact of Russian restrictions to gas supplies and an expectation that supply constraints would continue into next winter. Global agricultural goods prices were broadly unchanged over this period and compared to a year ago, though remained at elevated levels

    8: According to the flash estimate, euro-area annual HICP inflation had fallen from 10.6% in October to 10.0% in November, with core HICP inflation remaining at 5.0%. US CPI inflation had fallen from 7.7% in October to 7.1% in November, suggesting PCE inflation would also ease further.

    9: The MPC discussed the outlook for global inflation. In the November Report, world export price inflation had been expected to peak at 14% in 2022 Q2, and UK-weighted world consumer price inflation to peak at just over 8% in 2022 Q4. Developments since then had been consistent with that view. World export prices had been projected to fall over 2023 as a whole and global consumer price inflation was expected to decline to 1.9% by the end of next year. Absent further shocks, the assumed future path of energy prices and the easing of global supply constraints were consistent with this fall in global traded goods prices. Services price inflation in advanced economies could fall back more quickly than expected if its recent strength had in part reflected indirect effects of energy prices. The tightening in monetary policy across many economies would bear down on global demand and inflation, as the effects of increases in policy rates fed through with a lag. Further shocks to energy and other commodity prices continued to present some upside risks to the central outlook, as would more persistent tightness in advanced economy labour markets. In addition, there could be upside risks to services price inflation if persistently high input costs became embedded, including through higher wage growth.

    Monetary and financial conditions

    10: Since the MPC’s November meeting, government bond yields had moved lower across major advanced economies, particularly at longer maturities. Ten-year yields had fallen by around 20, 60 and 20 basis points in the United Kingdom, United States and Germany respectively. Those movements had only partially offset the significantly larger increases in global yields that had occurred since the end of July. Supported by the recent reduction in yields, risky asset prices had risen globally since the MPC’s previous meeting.

    11: Market expectations for the near-term path of policy rates were little changed across major advanced economies since the MPC’s previous meeting. Both the Federal Open Market Committee and the ECB Governing Council were expected to raise policy rates by 50 basis points at their forthcoming meetings concluding on 14 and 15 December respectively. The market-implied policy paths in the United States and euro area were expected to peak around the middle of next year at a little under 5% and a little under 3% respectively, not materially changed from at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting.

    12: A large majority of respondents to the Bank’s latest Market Participants Survey (MaPS) expected Bank Rate to be increased by 50 basis points at this MPC meeting, consistent with market-implied pricing. The median MaPS respondent expected Bank Rate to peak at 4¼% in the first half of next year and remain at that level throughout the remainder of 2023. The market-implied path for Bank Rate, which would also reflect any upside skew in Bank Rate expectations, rose to around 4¾% by around the middle of next year and remained close to that level throughout the remainder of 2023. While the market-implied path was a little higher than the MaPS median, the gap between these measures had narrowed since the previous MaPS survey, conducted in mid-October.

    13: Further out, market-implied policy paths had fallen across major advanced economies since the MPC’s November meeting. Expectations for policy rates three years ahead, had declined by around 50, 75 and 40 basis points in the United Kingdom, United States and euro area respectively. In the United Kingdom, this was in addition to the material reduction that had occurred in the immediate run-up to the MPC’s November meeting, after the November Monetary Policy Report projections had been finalised. Nevertheless, expected rates at the three-year horizon had remained higher in the United Kingdom than in other major advanced economies.

    14: Medium-term inflation compensation measures were little changed in the United States and euro area since the MPC’s previous meeting. Interpreting the moves in UK medium-term inflation compensation measures remained challenging. Nevertheless, these measures had fallen since the MPC’s previous meeting, following significant volatility in September and October, when there had been large distortions from the repricing in long-dated and index-linked UK government debt, and associated pressure on liability-driven investment (LDI) funds. Looking further back, there had been a material reduction in UK medium-term inflation compensation measures since their peak in March, although they had remained above their average levels of the past decade. In the latest MaPS, the median respondent’s expectation for CPI inflation at both the three and five-year horizons had been 2%, having fallen since the previous survey. Responses, however, had remained skewed to the upside.

    15: The sterling effective exchange rate had appreciated by around 2¾% since the previous MPC meeting. In part, that had reflected a broad-based depreciation of the US dollar, consistent with the somewhat larger declines in US interest rate expectations relative to other advanced economies over the period and some improvement in global risk sentiment.

    16: There had been some reduction in UK owner-occupied fixed-term mortgage rates since the Committee’s previous meeting, but rates had remained materially higher than in the summer. Lending rates for new fixed-rate mortgages had fallen by around 40 to 80 basis points since the November MPC meeting, reflecting the reduction in risk-free market rates following their sharp rise in late September around the time of the announcement of the Government’s Growth Plan. The number of mortgage products available had continued to recover from October lows, but had remained below the levels seen in the summer.

    17: Over the past year, overall bank credit availability had reduced. According to supervisory intelligence that had, in large part, been related to an expected deterioration in borrowers’ balance sheets.

    18: There were some early signs that tighter lending conditions and a decline in credit demand were feeding through to lower lending volumes. In the mortgage market, approvals for house purchase had fallen below 60,000 in October, which, excluding the Covid lockdown period in the first half of 2020, had been the lowest level since 2013. In the corporate sector, net finance raised by businesses in October had declined to its lowest level since 2009.

    19: There had been a net reduction in sterling broad money in October, although that had only partially offset the very large increase in September. Sterling net lending had also fallen in October following a sizeable increase in September. These flows were accounted for primarily by some firms in the financial sector and one contributory factor was likely to have been the significant market volatility towards the end of September, associated with developments at LDI funds.

    20: The MPC had been informed that, on 29 November, the Bank had begun to unwind, in a timely but orderly way, the specific gilt purchases resulting from the financial stability operations conducted between 28 September and 14 October. As of 13 December, around 40% of the gilts purchased during those operations had been sold.

    Demand and output

    21: According to the ONS’s first quarterly estimate, GDP had fallen by 0.2% in 2022 Q3, a smaller decline than the expectation in the November Monetary Policy Report of a 0.5% fall. Within the expenditure components, household consumption and business investment had both fallen by 0.5%, while government spending was estimated to have risen by 2.1%. Underlying output, defined as market sector output adjusted for the estimated effects of recent additional bank holidays, was estimated by Bank staff to have fallen by a similar amount as headline GDP.

    22: Monthly GDP had risen by 0.5% in October, following a 0.6% fall in September, and marginally stronger than had been expected by Bank staff immediately prior to the release. The rebound in the level of output had in large part reflected the unwind of the economic impact of the additional bank holiday for the Queen’s state funeral. At a sectoral level, private sector services had risen in line with expectations, with upside news concentrated in manufacturing output and, to a lesser degree, the government and construction sectors.

    23: Bank staff now expected GDP to decline by 0.1% in 2022 Q4, 0.2 percentage points stronger than had been expected in the November Report. This was consistent with a weakening in quarterly underlying growth to between -¼% and -½%, partially offset by the boost to headline output growth from the effect of the additional bank holiday unwinding in October and an assumption that government output would contribute positively to GDP during the quarter. The S&P Global/CIPS UK composite output PMI had remained below the 50 no-change mark for the fourth consecutive month in November. Intelligence from the Bank’s Agents was consistent with only a modest further weakening in activity in the fourth quarter, centred in consumer-facing sectors.

    24: For growth prospects further ahead, the composite future output PMI had recovered to close to its September levels, albeit remaining below its long-run average. In contrast, the CBI composite expectations balance had fallen sharply in November. An aggregate estimate of real growth from the latest Decision Maker Panel suggested that respondents expected sales volumes to stagnate over the next year. Taken together, the forward-looking survey evidence was broadly consistent with the projection in the November Report of a slight fall in GDP in 2023 Q1.

    25: Indicators of household consumption had remained weak. Retail sales volumes had risen by 0.6% in October, in part reflecting the boost to growth from the effect of the additional bank holiday unwinding, but had remained 1.2% below their 2019 Q4 level. GfK consumer confidence had edged higher in November, but had remained very weak by historical standards. Household real incomes were expected to be broadly flat in the near term.

    26: Most housing market indicators had continued to weaken in recent months, after several years of strength. Although the official UK House Price Index had increased strongly in October, house prices had fallen quite sharply in the Nationwide and Halifax indices in October and November. The November RICS survey had shown further declines in price balances and continuing weakness in indicators of housing market activity. According to higher-frequency Zoopla data, the volume of offers made on properties by potential buyers had declined to below their normal seasonal levels.

    27: Surveys of investment intentions had weakened further, and were consistent with small declines in business investment, following a period of greater strength in capital spending after the worst of the pandemic. Agency intelligence indicated that business confidence had remained weak, although mentions of uncertainty in the Agents’ reports had fallen back somewhat in recent weeks.

    28: The Autumn Statement had taken place on 17 November, accompanied by both an Economic and fiscal outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and new fiscal rules as set out in an updated Charter for Budget Responsibility. Some additional fiscal support had been announced in the near term, including targeted cost-of-living support in addition to the extended Energy Price Guarantee scheme, cuts in business rates, and increased spending on health, social care and education. From fiscal year 2024-25, planned fiscal policy would tighten by progressively larger amounts, with net tax rises accounting for around half of this tightening and reductions in both departmental current and capital spending accounting for the other half. Overall, Bank staff estimated that the additional policy measures announced in the Autumn Statement could, relative to what had been assumed in the November Monetary Policy Report, increase the level of GDP by 0.4% in one year’s time, leave it broadly unchanged at a two-year horizon, but reduce the level of GDP by 0.5% in three years’ time.

    29: The Committee discussed how the OBR’s latest macroeconomic projections compared to those in the November Monetary Policy Report. The OBR’s GDP projection was broadly similar to the MPC’s over the first year of the forecast period. Thereafter, the forecast profiles diverged very significantly, with the OBR expecting GDP to be around 5% higher than in the November Report by 2025 Q4. This gap reflected the OBR’s judgement that both demand and supply would be stronger than the MPC was expecting in the medium term. Productivity was expected to be around 1½% higher in the OBR’s projection, with that difference in part reflecting a much stronger projected path for business investment and hence the capital stock.

    Supply, costs and prices

    30: The Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment rate had risen to 3.7% in the three months to October, slightly higher than the expectation of 3.5% at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report. LFS employment had grown by 0.1% in the three months to October, slightly weaker than the 0.3% expected at the time of the November Report. HMRC employee payrolls had increased by 107,000 in November. LFS inactivity had fallen slightly, but had remained high by historical standards.

    31: Regarding more forward-looking indicators, the KPMG/REC Report on Jobs for November had shown that hiring had remained below historical averages. The ONS vacancy survey had continued to decline in recent months, while remaining at a very high level. The vacancies–to-unemployment ratio had remained close to record highs, based on comparable series since 2001. Online indicators of vacancies had flattened off in recent months, but they had remained significantly above pre-Covid levels. Planned redundancies had remained low, although there had been a decrease in the S&P Global UK Household Financial Index and YouGov survey measures of perceptions of job security. Intelligence from contacts of the Bank’s Agents was consistent with some early signs of the labour market loosening, albeit from a very tight starting point, as employment intentions were flat and recruitment difficulties had eased slightly.

    32: The Committee discussed recent labour market developments. Overall, recent data suggested that the labour market was historically very tight but appeared to be past its peak tightness. Labour demand appeared to have weakened somewhat and the November Report was consistent with a further weakening, given the usual lags between GDP and the labour market. While the earlier strength in the labour market had partly reflected the recovery in demand following the pandemic, recent weakness in labour participation appeared to have somewhat exacerbated the tightness of the labour market. This weakness in participation in part reflected an ageing population, early retirement decisions for some workers and ill health. Given that these trends could continue for some time, a key uncertainty was the speed of the downward adjustment to labour demand as labour supply fell, and thus the extent to which any supply-demand imbalance exerted upward pressure on inflation. The MPC would have an opportunity to review these judgements as part of its annual supply stocktake, which would conclude alongside the February 2023 Monetary Policy Report.

    33: Annual whole-economy total pay growth had picked up slightly to 6.2% in the three months to October. Private sector regular pay growth had also picked up further to 6.9%, 0.5 percentage points stronger than the expectation at the time of the November Report. On a three month on three month annualised basis, private sector regular pay growth had fallen back to 6.7%, a level more in line with the annual rate of increase than earlier in the year. Annual public sector pay growth had remained weaker, at 2.7% in the three months to October.

    34: Annual private sector wage growth was expected to flatten off at around 7% in coming months, before declining later in 2023. There were risks on either side. Pay indicators in the November KPMG/REC survey, which tended to lead the official data, had weakened a little further. However, a number of contacts of the Bank’s Agents expected further upward pressure on pay growth next year, in part as strength in CPI inflation could encourage workers to continue to demand high pay settlements. Some contacts had nevertheless reported that weaker demand, affordability constraints for firms and an easing in recruitment difficulties could limit the extent of pay increases.

    35: Twelve-month consumer price inflation had fallen to 10.7% in November, from 11.1% in October. The November figure had been slightly lower than expected in the November Report, with the downside news concentrated in food and core goods prices. This release had triggered the exchange of open letters between the Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer that was being published alongside these minutes. Core CPI inflation, excluding energy, food, beverages and tobacco, had eased slightly from 6.5% in October to 6.3% in November.

    36: Considering non-energy inflationary pressures, core goods inflation had fallen back from recent peaks, in part due to weaker vehicle price inflation and was expected to ease further in the near term. This was consistent with an easing of supply chain bottlenecks and some cost pressures softening. However, food and non-alcoholic beverage price inflation had been 16.4% in November, its highest level in 45 years, and was expected to rise further. This had in large part reflected global factors including adverse climate conditions, supply constraints caused by the war in Ukraine and rising energy and fertiliser costs in food production. Core services inflation had risen to 6.3% in October and to 6.4% in November. Contacts of the Bank’s Agents reported that consumer services prices continue to be pushed up by higher input prices, particularly pay, food and energy.

    37: The largest component of the overshoot of the 2% inflation target had continued to be the contribution from energy prices. CPI inflation was expected to stay elevated in the near term, but to continue to fall gradually over the first quarter of 2023, in large part as earlier increases in energy and other goods prices dropped out of the annual comparison. These effects were expected to outweigh continuing strength from food and services price inflation.

    38: Since the November Report, the Government had announced that the cap on household unit energy prices under the Energy Price Guarantee would rise, from April 2023 to March 2024, to a level consistent with a typical annual dual-fuel bill of £3,000, from £2,500. Over the early part of the MPC’s forecast period, this implied a lower path for household energy bills than the working assumption made in the November Report of an indicative path for household utility bills that sat halfway between the previously announced £2,500 cap on the typical household bill and the level implied by futures prices under the Ofgem price cap framework. This downside news would lower the forecast for CPI inflation in 2023 Q2 by 0.8 percentage points, all else equal, and would boost household real incomes to a similar degree.

    39: Most measures of households’ and businesses’ inflation expectations had fallen back in the latest data, but had remained at elevated levels. The one-year ahead Citi and Bank/Ipsos household measures had both fallen in November. At longer horizons, the five- to ten-year ahead Citi measure had fallen, while the Bank/Ipsos measure had risen a little. Respondents to the Decision Maker Panel in November had indicated lower own-price and inflation expectations over the next year, and lower inflation expectations three years ahead, although all of these series had remained above 2%.

    The immediate policy decision

    40: The MPC sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.

    41: In the MPC’s November Monetary Policy Report projections, conditioned on the elevated path of market interest rates at that time, the UK economy had been expected to be in recession for a prolonged period and CPI inflation had been expected to remain very high in the near term. Inflation had been expected to fall sharply from mid-2023, to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection. This had reflected a negative contribution from energy prices, as well as the emergence of an increasing degree of economic slack and a steadily rising unemployment rate. The risks around that declining path for inflation had been judged to be to the upside.

    42: Domestic wage and price pressures were elevated. There had been limited news in other domestic and global economic data relative to the November Report projections. Bank staff now expected UK GDP to decline by 0.1% in 2022 Q4, 0.2 percentage points stronger than had been expected in the November Report. Most housing market indicators had continued to weaken. Vacancies had fallen back, but the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio had remained at a very elevated level. Annual growth of private sector regular pay had picked up further and had been 0.5 percentage points stronger than had been expected at the time of the November Report. A number of contacts of the Bank’s Agents expected further upward pressure on pay growth next year, although pay indicators in the KPMG/REC survey, which tended to lead the official data, had weakened a little further. Twelve-month CPI inflation had fallen to 10.7% in November, slightly below expectations at the time of the November Report. Since the MPC’s previous meeting, core goods price inflation had fallen back, while annual food and services price inflation had strengthened. Most measures of households’ and businesses’ inflation expectations had fallen back, but had remained at elevated levels.

    43: The Autumn Statement had taken place on 17 November, accompanied by an Economic and fiscal outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility and new fiscal rules as set out in an updated Charter for Budget Responsibility. The Chancellor of the Exchequer had also written to the Governor setting out the remit for the MPC, including some updates to the government’s economic strategy. In this letter, the Chancellor had stated that, although the Bank of England Act required him to reaffirm the MPC’s remit annually, to provide certainty he could confirm that this government would not change the definition of price stability.

    44: The announcement in the Autumn Statement that the extension of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) would cap household unit energy prices at a level consistent with a typical household dual fuel bill of £3,000 per year from April 2023 to March 2024 implied a slightly lower near-term path for energy bills than the working assumption made in the November Report. All else equal, this would reduce the MPC’s forecast for CPI inflation in 2023 Q2 by around ¾ of a percentage point.

    45: Other additional near-term fiscal support had also been announced in the Autumn Statement, but fiscal policy was expected to tighten by progressively larger amounts from fiscal year 2024-25 onwards. Overall, Bank staff estimated that these measures, combined with the impact of the EPG, would increase the level of GDP by 0.4% at a one-year horizon, leave it broadly unchanged at a two-year horizon, but reduce the level of GDP by 0.5% in three years’ time, relative to what had been assumed in the November Report. The overall impact on the CPI inflation projection at all of these horizons was estimated to be small.

    46: The Committee would make a fuller assessment of this news, taken together with other developments since the November Report, as part of its forthcoming forecast discussions ahead of the February MPC meeting. The MPC would also have an opportunity to review its judgements on the supply side of the economy as part of its annual supply stocktake, which would conclude alongside the February Monetary Policy Report.

    47: The MPC’s remit was clear that the inflation target applied at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. The framework recognised that there would be occasions when inflation would depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. The economy had been subject to a succession of very large shocks. Monetary policy would ensure that, as the adjustment to these shocks continued, CPI inflation returned to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term. Monetary policy was also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations were anchored at the 2% target.

    48: Six members of the Committee judged that a 0.5 percentage point increase in Bank Rate, to 3.5%, was warranted at this meeting. The labour market remained tight and there had been evidence of inflationary pressures in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence and thus justified a further forceful monetary policy response. Both services price inflation and private sector regular wage growth had increased significantly over the second half of the year, with the latter continuing to surprise on the upside since the November Report. There remained a risk that, following a protracted period of high inflation, inflation expectations could be slow to adjust downwards to target-consistent levels once external cost pressures had passed. Although activity in the economy was clearly weakening, there were some signs that it was more resilient than had been expected and it was therefore uncertain how quickly the labour market would loosen. Other economic forecasters had also continued to predict a stronger outlook for demand than in the MPC’s November Report projections. A 0.5 percentage point increase in Bank Rate at this meeting would help to bring inflation back to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, and to reduce the risks of a more extended and costly tightening later.

    49: Two members preferred to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3% at this meeting. The real economy remained weak, as a result of falling real incomes and tighter financial conditions. There were increasing signs that the downturn was starting to affect the labour market. But the lags in the effects of monetary policy meant that sizeable impacts from past rate increases were still to come through. That implied the current setting of Bank Rate was more than sufficient to bring inflation back to target, before falling below target in the medium term. As the policy setting had become increasingly restrictive, there was no longer a strong case for further tightening on risk management grounds.

    50: One member preferred a 0.75 percentage point increase in Bank Rate, to 3.75%, at this meeting. Although there was some evidence of an inflection point in CPI inflation, there was greater evidence that price and wage pressures would stay strong for longer than had been projected in the November Report. Another more forceful monetary tightening now would reinforce the tightening cycle, importantly leaning against an inflation psychology that was embedding in wage settlements and inflation expectations, and was pushing up core services and other underlying inflation measures. Pulling forward monetary action now would reduce the risk that Bank Rate would need to rise well into next year even as the economy slowed further.

    51: The majority of the Committee judged that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the November Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate might be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target.

    52: There were considerable uncertainties around the outlook. The Committee continued to judge that, if the outlook suggested more persistent inflationary pressures, it would respond forcefully, as necessary.

    53: The MPC would take the actions necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit. The Committee would, as always, consider and decide the appropriate level of Bank Rate at each meeting.

    54: The Chair invited the Committee to vote on the proposition that:

    • Bank Rate should be increased by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.5%.

    55: Six members (Andrew Bailey, Ben Broadbent, Jon Cunliffe, Jonathan Haskel, Huw Pill and Dave Ramsden) voted in favour of the proposition. Three members voted against the proposition. Two members (Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro) preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 3%. Catherine L Mann preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 3.75%.

    Operational considerations

    56: On 14 December 2022, the total stock of assets held for monetary policy purposes was £844 billion, comprising £831 billion of UK government bond purchases and £13.6 billion of sterling non‐financial investment‐grade corporate bond purchases.

    57: At its September 2022 meeting, the MPC had voted to begin sales of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes. In 2022 Q4, the Bank had completed a total of £6 billion of sales of these bonds via eight auctions. Taken together with maturing bonds, this had led to a reduction in the outstanding stock of £7 billion in 2022 Q4 and £44 billion over 2022 as a whole. The MPC had been briefed on progress on these gilt sales and on the operational arrangements for 2023 Q1, which would be published in a Market Notice on 16 December at 6pm.

    58: In February 2022, the MPC had voted to unwind fully the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases no earlier than towards the end of 2023. The stock of corporate bonds had since been reduced by a total of £6.4 billion, including £4.2 billion via sales through the Bank’s auctions since September. The Committee was content with the current rate of reduction in the stock, which, if sustained, would permit an earlier unwind of the portfolio than initially anticipated. The Committee would keep the pace of sales, and the implications for the completion date, under review.

    59: The following members of the Committee were present:

    • Andrew Bailey, Chair
    • Ben Broadbent
    • Jon Cunliffe
    • Swati Dhingra
    • Jonathan Haskel
    • Catherine L Mann
    • Huw Pill
    • Dave Ramsden
    • Silvana Tenreyro

    Clare Lombardelli was present as the Treasury representative.

    60: As permitted under the Bank of England Act 1998, as amended by the Bank of England and Financial Services Act 2016, David Roberts was also present on 7 and 9 December, as an observer for the purpose of exercising oversight functions in his role as a member of the Bank’s Court of Directors.

  • Gordon Brown – 2022 Comments on People Struggling Financially

    Gordon Brown – 2022 Comments on People Struggling Financially

    The comments made by Gordon Brown, the Labour Prime Minister between 2007 and 2010, on Twitter on 15 December 2022.

    At a time when so many are struggling to survive, unable to pay for heating or feed their kids, the government is deducting huge amounts from their Universal Credit.

    This isn’t just austerity, it’s cruelty.

    A couple with three children should get a UC payment of £46.11 a day.

    When the payment lands though some families are receiving just £35.

    25% is being deducted to repay the loan some families had to take out for their first 5 weeks on UC when they received no benefits.

    Another deduction is 5% to pay their utility company.

    After fuel bills, they find they have little left for food and nothing for all essential like soap, toothpaste, clothes, laundry, telecoms, travel, and essential repairs.

    In Kirkcaldy, 56% of claimants suffer deductions for loans they should never have had to pay back in the first place. It’s worse elsewhere.
    1m UK households are having more than 20% of their Universal Credit deducted.

    2m children are in families suffering deductions.

    Take away fuel, council tax and water, and a 25% UC deduction for a couple with 3 kids leaves them just £5.10 each a day for food and everything else.

    The maximum help with heating a family can get is £24 a week to cover £50. From April it’ll be just £16 for nearly £60.

    For families in need, Universal Credit only now covers 50% of what is needed for a decent home income.

    Welfare is being privatised, with the government passing the buck to charities who can’t cope.

    Such cruelty has to stop.

    This ruthless debt-collector government must suspend Universal Credit deductions immediately for the duration of the energy crisis. They did it during Covid, they can do it now.

    It would be a lifesaver for the millions now suffering under such vindictive policies.

  • Mark Spencer – 2022 Speech on Marine Management Organisation

    Mark Spencer – 2022 Speech on Marine Management Organisation

    The speech made by Mark Spencer, the Minister for Food, Farming and Fisheries, in Westminster Hall, the House of Commons, on 13 December 2022.

    It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Pritchard. I welcome the debate and am grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Clacton (Giles Watling) for securing it. I sense his frustrations and I am sympathetic to them; I will try to assist and alleviate some of them. My hon. Friend said that he has not heard from the MMO and that it has not engaged in the debate; it has sent a rather brilliant Minister to respond on its behalf. [Interruption.] Yes, unfortunately he could not be here so I have taken his place.

    This is a timely debate: the MMO is due to publish its annual report next week. It comes ahead of the Second Reading of my hon. Friend’s ten-minute rule Bill, which is due in February. Alongside its marine licensing duties, the MMO covers a broad range of activities, including fisheries management and the management and regulation of marine protected sites. Many of these also interact with the MMO’s responsibilities as the marine planning authority for English waters, which my hon. Friend referenced. It has teams based in 15 locations around the English coast. It is responsible for engaging with the full range of local stakeholders, signposting to relevant MMO guidance and, where relevant, making introductions to other parts of the MMO in relation to specific activities.

    When it comes to marine licensing and the process, the MMO is the appropriate marine licensing authority for English waters. The scope of responsibility and function held by the MMO ensures not only that marine licensing applications are assessed on an individual basis, but that marine planning activities are placed in a wider context so that conservation work on protected sites and species and compliance, monitoring and inspections are taken into consideration.

    The MMO aims to determine 90% of marine licence applications within 13 weeks. Some cases are more complex and take longer because of the detailed technical and complex environmental assessments that may be required. My hon. Friend the Member for Clacton referred to an individual case that he was working on and the fact that when he engaged with Ministers, he got a response very quickly. It is my understanding that that was purely coincidence—that a lot of work was going on in the background to gain access to that information, and the intervention of the Minister at the time coincided with the MMO pulling the information together and it being ready within a matter of hours.

    I am aware of the circumstances around the licence application made for the sea defences at Naze. My understanding is that this licence has not been straightforward to determine. Supplementary information and assessments had to be sought from the applicant after the initial application was received in July 2021. This included a required water framework assessment and further information from the applicant to update the methodology of the works. The MMO also had some difficulty ascertaining whether Tendring District Council’s planning department was dealing with the planning application for the works as an environmental impact assessment application, and whether there was scope for working through the coastal concordat on the case. The potential for coastal concordat working was raised with the council on 2 August 2021, but it took seven weeks for the council’s planning department to reply, confirming its position. There was also a 28-day consultation period for interested parties and stakeholders to express their views on the licence application. I hope that my hon. Friend has some sympathy with the fact that there is a process to go through. Whether it was with the MMO or the local authority, there would be hoops and challenges to get through to ensure that we get to the right decisions.

    Following the consultation period, the MMO identified that a habitats regulations assessment would also be required. Agreement was reached with the applicant on the fees only on 22 March, ahead of the MMO progressing the final determination and issuing that on 14 April. I am aware that an application for a licence variation was then received in July this year and I understand that it has been held up while the MMO has awaited the submission of an environmental impact assessment screening request from the applicant. That was received by the MMO on 3 November, and the MMO will move to consider the licence variation as soon as possible.

    I understand that the time taken to determine some marine licence applications is sometimes frustrating. This case is an example of the complexity of some marine licences and of how careful consideration is paramount.

    Giles Watling

    We are talking here about potential flooding—flood risk. The area around Jaywick in my constituency flooded in 1953, with the loss of some 90 lives, so when we see floods no one hangs around; people have to be fleet of foot. That is what I am asking for: fleetness of foot. The case that I identified earlier was one where, with every succeeding tide, the damage worsened, threatening to flood a sewage farm and poison the backwaters

    Mark Spencer

    I wholly acknowledge the necessity of speed to save his constituents and to ensure that no environmental damage is caused around Clacton. What we must not do, though, is introduce a scheme that might cause damage in another community six or seven miles down the coast. It is important to determine whether an action is required—it clearly was required—to protect an area or piece of infrastructure and that it does not impact on another piece of infrastructure that could cause even more damage. To do so, there needs to be an overarching authority that looks at all the facts in the light of day and, after all due consideration, says whether something is the right or wrong thing to do—whether the impacts of the decision made will be felt further down the coastline. My hon. Friend would be distressed if an application in—to pick a constituency at random—Southend were to have a huge impact on Clacton. He would be distressed if Southend-on-Sea City Council made that decision unilaterally without considering the impact on the community of Clacton.

    As the debate has highlighted, the MMO has responsibilities in the marine space, all of which are crucial. We must not forget the adaptability of the MMO in its delivery of the important objectives that support the growth of our local communities, the trade in fish, and the marine environment. The MMO is the primary responder to marine emergency situations and is key to supporting evidence-based decisions that touch a range of Government Departments. I think that is the right outcome and an outcome that we can all agree on. We may disagree on whether the MMO performs to a level that we appreciate, but there has to be a regulator. We need to continue to support the MMO’s performance.

    Mr Jonathan Lord (Woking) (Con)

    Who regulates the regulator? Who is marking the homework of this organisation?

    Mark Spencer

    Ultimately, I think that falls under the umbrella of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. I have regular meetings with the MMO—in fact, I met its chief executive this week. I asked him to meet my hon. Friend the Member for Clacton, and he confirmed to me that he would be willing to meet; I will make sure that meeting happens. Let me say again that if other colleagues want to engage directly with the MMO, I am more than happy to facilitate meetings and to ensure that MMO is delivering for their constituents. We have had an interesting debate. I sense the frustration of some colleagues around the Chamber, but, as the Minister, I am more than happy to try to facilitate those discussions and to work with the MMO to deliver outcomes that hon. Members and their constituents want.