Tag: 2022

  • Amanda Spielman – 2022 Speech at the National Children and Adult Services Conference

    Amanda Spielman – 2022 Speech at the National Children and Adult Services Conference

    The speech made by Amanda Spielman, the Chief Inspector of Ofsted, in Manchester on 3 November 2022.

    Good morning, it’s great to be with you here in Manchester and to be talking to people from across the sector on my visits to children’s homes, local authorities and schools.

    What is clear from those conversations, and from everything we have seen through the year, is that this is still a challenging time for education and social care.

    So, I also want to take the time to say thank you and your teams for the hard work you do, whether in education, social care or wider children’s and adults’ services.

    There are more than a few pinch points in our sectors including workforce shortages, capacity pressures, and places for children with the most complex needs. There are also the big external factors such as an increase in asylum seeking unaccompanied children and your work supporting Ukrainian and other refugee families.

    But despite this, we do know that you are un-deterred in your ambitions for children.

    And I want to reassure you that we are too.

    Our strategy

    So, what are we at Ofsted doing?

    Like you, we have continued with our work while adjusting to big changes in context. But we have also been looking to the future. We recently published a new five-year strategy taking us to 2027. This is a strategy that reflects on the last 5 years, especially the pressures the pandemic put on our sectors, but it does also look forward to recovery and beyond.

    The strategy has been designed to understand and meet the challenges I mentioned. It will also support your sectors while maintaining our distinct role and perspective.

    We have set ourselves 8 strategic priorities and I want to talk about 5 of them:

    • ‘inspections that raise standards’
    • delivering ‘right touch regulation’
    • ‘keeping children safe’
    • ‘keeping pace with sector changes’
    • and making sure children get ‘the best start in life’

    The best start in life

    I am sure that these will resonate with you, and I will talk through each of them, but I want to begin with ‘the best start in life.’

    Children only get one childhood. Each of us has a role in making sure we are getting it right from the start. We make no apology for prioritising the early years.

    Over the last year we have published reports highlighting the serious impact the pandemic has had on some of the youngest children. We, like you, have been very concerned about the harm to them.

    There are clear concerns about the impact on children’s social and wider development. Many have gaps in communication and language skills and are behind where they should be in personal, social, emotional, and physical development.

    There is also a challenging backdrop as the early years sector adapts to the post-pandemic landscape. Parents are struggling to find childcare that is flexible to their needs and at a price they can afford. Alongside this, many workers are leaving the sector and those who stay are often struggling on low wages, exacerbated by significant rises in the cost of living. Making childcare affordable, while attracting well trained and motivated staff is incredibly difficult. We are very aware of this.

    In the past, there has been a well-intentioned policy aim to treat childminders and nurseries alike. But part of what we are trying to do is to respect their different natures while maintaining high standards, wherever care is happening.

    A young child’s development and learning, wherever they are, is crucial. It is why Ofsted is emphasising the importance of early years curriculum; what children are learning.

    We are also going to extend specialist training for our early years inspectors; and we are continuing our early years research programme allowing us to share our insights quickly.

    Inspections that raise standards

    Which brings me on to our next strategic priority – ‘inspections that raise standards.’

    Coming out of the pandemic, schools and nurseries told us they wanted stability and continuity, including in the inspection model. That is why we are allowing the Education Inspection Framework (EIF) to embed properly rather than change it to focus on pandemic recovery.

    However, we have clarified how the EIF works for childminders. We updated the early years inspection handbook in September to include specific guidance for childminder inspections. It includes information on the practical process, how our inspectors gather and evaluate evidence, and how they come to a judgement.

    Inspection judgements are important because they inform parents, commissioners, and government about the standards being achieved. Our reports highlight good practice and areas for improvement.

    The inspection process itself is designed around professional dialogue. Good leaders are the main drivers of improvement in their services. Professional dialogue helps them to improve and us to recognise and report good practice.

    Joint Targeted Area Inspections (JTAIs)

    We also want our inspections to encourage cross-sector working.

    We have recently published our new guidance for Joint Targeted Area Inspections (JTAIs). We will look at how children’s social care, education, health, and the police, work together to reduce risks and harm to children and to give early help.

    We know that getting the right help at the right time can prevent longer-term intervention. All these agencies must contribute to this.

    Our JTAIs will also look at how early help works and how children move between the categories of early help and children in need.

    We hope that this work will make sure everyone in local areas thinks about their role in early support for families. We also expect that it will help the government as it considers children’s social care reform.

    Right touch regulation

    We know that our ‘right touch regulation’ strategic priority is so important to the sector right now.

    Proportionate and risk-based regulation is critical to ensuring good outcomes for children.

    The principles of good regulation are straightforward: * proportionality * accountability * consistency * transparency * and targeting

    There have been several recent reviews and reports with recommendations for Ofsted and for the sectors we work with. We welcome these contributions and the ongoing discussions that they bring. We’ll continue to support improvement based on the recommendations we and you have been making for a number of years to deliver the best possible outcomes for children.

    Where there are lessons for Ofsted to learn, we will take that on board. We constantly strive to improve and change where we can see it will help.

    We will continue to use our regulatory powers with careful thought and only where we have serious concerns. But, when we find care that is simply not good enough, it is right that we continue to act.

    We know this can contribute to pressures on supply, but we cannot and will not accept sub-standard care for children. We know that there is increased demand, but the solution to that is not lower standards. It is increased supply.

    But we are making changes that we believe will help you.

    I want to give you 3 examples of where we are doing this.

    Multi-building registration

    The first is multi-building registration.

    We recognised a need for more flexible and responsive provision for children, and an increasing demand for solo and specialised placements. Late last year we introduced the multi-building registration of children’s homes.

    It means that a provider can now apply to register a single home where the care and accommodation is provided in more than one building. This reflects the changing ways in which services for children are being delivered and should help increase system capacity. We know some providers are already benefitting from this.

    But I am worried about the growth in single child homes. They can isolate children, be very expensive, and create additional safeguarding risks. They can be right for some children but is not a trend we should uncritically welcome.

    Streamlining the application process

    The second example is our streamlining the application process for childcare to make it simpler and quicker.

    We are simplifying our GP health checks and making sure we have all the evidence we need to make informed decisions. We are also working on changes to the registration process to do more parts in parallel and get to registration visits sooner.

    All of this will help childminders and nurseries get registered more quickly.

    Inspecting local authority children’s services (ILACS)

    The third example I want to give is the work we’re doing to recognise the experiences of care leavers. We want to capture a child’s entire journey through the care system, and especially their experiences when they leave it. From January, our ILACS inspections will include a new judgement on the experiences and progress of care leavers.

    We’ve consulted you and the wider sector and received very strong support for this new judgement. We will be publishing the updated framework in December. The criteria will reflect the areas that you and young people who have lived in care think make the most difference to young people’s lives.

    We will look at young people’s relationships and participation; their health, both physical and mental; their learning and employment; and the local offer and support for care leavers as they transition to adulthood.

    Area SEND framework

    As part of our better regulation priority, I would also like to talk to you about the work we are doing on the new area SEND framework. Thanks to everyone who responded to the consultation on the framework.

    This work is a priority for me. I have long had concerns about the significant weaknesses in the system, backed up by the evidence from our inspections and research on the pandemic’s impact.

    I welcomed the government’s vision to reform the system set out in the green paper. But I have always been clear that it would not be right to wait until reforms are made to introduce a new inspection framework. Our aim is to promote improvement in the existing system, while helping areas prepare for further reforms.

    Our proposed changes include strengthening the accountability of local area partnerships by having more clarity about who recommendations are aimed at. Critically, we want to put the experiences and outcomes for children with SEND at the centre of our inspections.

    Keeping pace with sector changes

    As well as making changes at Ofsted, we want to continue to recognise changes and innovations in the sector.

    I do understand that you can sometimes feel blamed when things don’t work out, and that can hinder innovation.

    We understand that you can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs. It’s important to try new things to improve outcomes for children. But you should also make sure that when things don’t work, you learn from them and improve.

    So, we know the sector is changing and it is important not to overburden the system. As changes and reforms become clear, we will continue to be an intelligent regulator.

    In my conversations with Ministers, they have always been clear about the importance of changing things carefully and managing change well, while maintaining high ambitions. I couldn’t agree more, and I hope that this spirit will continue.

    Ofsted will do what it can to bring systems together, recognising a world where not everything is achievable.

    We are making sure that we are working with other inspectorates and regulators to hold the right organisations to account. It’s a complicated regulatory landscape and we are not the only people who inspect you.

    That’s why we have been working closely with CQC and HMI Probation so that we don’t all inspect at once. We want to give you the space to do what you do well and avoid simultaneous inspections that stretch your resources. This is good for everyone, including your staff, and lets us get to a better reflection of quality.

    Keeping children safe

    This brings me to the last strategic priority I want to talk about today – ‘keeping children safe.’

    It is vital through their whole journey – from childhood to adulthood. And there are aspects of safeguarding that have often gone under the radar but are getting more attention.

    Supported accommodation

    Supported accommodation is currently in the spotlight. We start registering these providers in April. Some of you are already planning and working to be ready for that, and we encourage all of you to do so.

    We recognise that supported accommodation is hugely varied – quite rightly, as it should reflect the diverse and changing needs of individual young people.

    So, we won’t have a one-size-fits-all, overly prescriptive approach.

    Unaccompanied asylum-seeking children

    We’re also seeing more asylum seekers, and particularly unaccompanied asylum-seeking children. Children who arrive at our shores have often travelled for months and may have endured hardships and harm along the way.

    These children need care and compassion, but we also have to be practical and plan for the increased pressures and extra demands.

    Unfortunately, many children are getting stuck in unsuitable accommodation such as hotels.

    Once in England, children should transfer to the care of a local authority and become a ‘child in care.’ This should happen swiftly. But we know that growing numbers, pressures on foster care, and the failings of some authorities to take ‘their share’ has led to unacceptable delays.

    We take this very seriously. We have already helped the Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration on their inspections of hotels housing these children. Their recent report highlighted safeguarding concerns, very limited education, and unclear or poor oversight.

    The Home Office’s reply committed them to eliminating the use of such accommodation as quickly as possible. You all have a part to play in achieving that.

    It is also vital that asylum seekers are in places which are appropriate for their age. Adults being in spaces for children raise obvious safeguarding concerns. We are also very concerned about increasing numbers of children being found in hotels, mistakenly identified as adults. We have raised this with the DfE (Department for Education) and have seen swift action from local authorities. But we are concerned that vulnerable children could be lost from sight and at risk of future exploitation.

    We know that many of you are working hard to develop local provision for these very vulnerable children and accommodating the increased quotas. When we inspect, we will recognise those making good efforts as well as where progress is too slow.

    Conclusion

    I know we all face an extremely challenging landscape. I want to finish by saying that the solutions to the challenges we face do not lie in the gift of any one of us. We must all continue to work on the areas where we can make a difference to improve the outcomes for all children.

    Thank you for all the work you are doing in this area and will continue to do.

  • PRESS RELEASE : UK-Malaysia joint statement at Joint Committee [November 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : UK-Malaysia joint statement at Joint Committee [November 2022]

    The press release issued by the Department for International Trade on 3 November 2022.

    On Thursday 3 November 2022, the UK and Malaysia convened the second Joint Committee on Trade and Investment Cooperation in London. The first Joint Committee meeting was hosted virtually by Malaysia in 2020.

    His Majesty’s Trade Commissioner for Asia Pacific, Natalie Black CBE, co-chaired the meeting alongside Deputy Secretary General (International Trade) for the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) Malaysia, Mr Hairil Yahri Yaacob.

    In recognition of the importance of the trading relationship, the meeting also formalised the intent to elevate the Joint Committee to a Ministerial led Joint Economic Trade Committee (JETCO). The new JETCO will help to promote and enhance trade, investment and economic cooperation linkages, including addressing trade barriers affecting business between the two countries. The first meeting of the UK-Malaysia JETCO is expected to be held in autumn next year.

    At the meeting of the Joint Committee, the UK congratulated Malaysia on its ratification of CPTPP. The UK provided an update on their accession status and Malaysia presented on the benefits of CPTPP when it enters into force for Malaysia on November 29, 2022. The CPTPP will increase the potential for further trade between the UK and Malaysia, contributing to the shared prosperity of both countries through the creation of new opportunities for businesses and investors.

    The meeting also brought together six working group co-leads to report on the progress of their bilateral cooperation in agreed priority areas. In addition, there were presentations from the UK on teacher training and on Malaysian sustainable palm oil initiatives.

  • PRESS RELEASE : The costs of conflict are self-evident on sustainable peace [November 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : The costs of conflict are self-evident on sustainable peace [November 2022]

    The press release issued by the Foreign Office on 3 November 2022.

    Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the Security Council open debate on integrating effective resilience-building in peace operations for sustainable peace.

    Thank you, President. And I thank, as others have done, the Secretary-General and our very distinguished and thought-provoking briefers this morning.

    Excellency, the United Kingdom is grateful to Ghana for your longstanding role in tackling armed conflict, and your significant contributions to UN peacekeeping. Ghana’s leadership has resulted in a safer world for many. We deeply value our close partnership.

    At the outset, I also want to congratulate the African Union and African colleagues on the promising step towards lasting peace in Ethiopia following the agreement announced yesterday, and we offer our continued support.

    President, as we have heard, conflicts are becoming increasingly complex.

    For UN Peace Operations to operate effectively in this environment, they need to adapt and better coordinate with wider UN and non-UN peacebuilding work.

    Specifically, I’d like to underline three points:

    Firstly, peace operations need the capabilities to understand conflict drivers and feed that analysis into the wider UN strategy and approach. The UK is proud to support UN Peace and Development Advisers, whose expertise could be used in Mission settings to support greater strategic and operational join-up across the UN’s work.

    Secondly, we need to incentivise and deliver a more integrated UN system to enable a more holistic approach as others have also said this morning. Integration scorecards piloted in Haiti, Somalia and Sudan, with UK funding, have made progress, but we need to scale this up. The Council can also drive this commitment; in the mandates it sets, and by encouraging the full use of the UN’s strategic planning and operating frameworks, and instruments such as the Global Focal Point for the Rule of Law.

    Thirdly, co-ordinated investment in peace is crucial. The Peacebuilding Fund, which the UK continues to support, is a key tool for bringing together different parts of the UN system. But it also needs strong leadership in Missions that encourages the wider UN Development system to step up investment in peace, and promotes partnerships with regional and international financial institutions. Both the Council and the Peacebuilding Commission can help drive this.

    Colleagues, the costs of conflict are self-evident.

    Investing in prevention is essential, as is strengthening women’s roles in conflict prevention and resolution for lasting peace and security. The UK is also proud to support the African Union’s Network of African Women in Conflict Prevention.

    President, a system-wide approach to sustaining peace is critical.

    The UK remains thankful to Ghana for this debate today, and remains committed to realising the promise of the 2016 “twin resolutions”.

    Thank you.

  • PRESS RELEASE : OSCE group of friends on safety of journalists – Joint statement to the OSCE [November 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : OSCE group of friends on safety of journalists – Joint statement to the OSCE [November 2022]

    The press release issued by the Foreign Office on 3 November 2022.

    Lithuanian Ambassador Vaidotas Verba delivers a Group of Friends statement in response to the report by the OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media.

    This statement is delivered on behalf of the Group of Friends on Safety of Journalists, which consists of the following member States: Austria, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We thank the Representative for her report and the Office of the Representative on Freedom of the Media (RFoM) for good cooperation in the past year.

    We fully support the autonomous mandate of the Representative and Ms Ribeiro in her execution of that mandate. We appreciate her clear stance regarding Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified aggression against Ukraine. We also support her attention to the rest of our region – no country is immune to shortcomings. This is clearly demonstrated by the interventions in a total of 53 OSCE participating States reported by the RFoM so far this year.

    As participating States, we have reaffirmed that freedom of expression and media freedom are cornerstones of our common security. The RFoM is a vital instrument for the promotion of this fundamental principle, and we encourage all States to make good use of the toolbox created within the Representative’s mandate.

    Mr. Chair,

    2022 truly has been a dark year for the safety of journalists in our region. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has put a spotlight on the importance of the protection of journalists and media actors in conflict and war. Despite enormous risks, they strive to provide unbiased, trustworthy, and fact-based information from zones of conflict. We urgently call on the Russian Federation to immediately end its attacks on independent media at home and abroad and to respect the rights of journalists and media actors in accordance with international human rights law, international humanitarian law and OSCE commitments.

    The 2nd of November marks the International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists. While killings are the most extreme form of media censorship, journalists are also subjected to countless other threats – ranging from kidnapping, torture, and other physical attacks to harassment, particularly in the digital sphere. Furthermore, journalists also face intimidation from public authorities and political leaders in their own and other countries, such as illegitimate state surveillance, the use of SLAPPS or the denial of visa to travel for work.

    Threats of violence and attacks against journalists create a climate of fear for media actors, impeding the free circulation of information, opinions, and ideas for all. The disproportionate targeting of women journalists and other women media actors through structural sexual and gender-based violence, harassment and abuse is of deep concern and runs the risk of silencing women’s voices.

    All OSCE participating States have committed to protect journalists. Proper investigation and prosecution of perpetrators should go hand in hand with the positive obligations for participating States to promote a safe and enabling environment for independent media.

    Threats against media freedom, safety of journalists and freedom of expression is part of the backsliding of democracy that we are witnessing around the world. The right to freedom of expression and opinion, including the ability to access to reliable information are corner stones of a democratic society. There is indeed no security without media freedom.

    Dear Representative Ribeiro,

    We congratulate you, past Representatives and all your colleagues in the Office of the RFoM with the 25th anniversary. You can trust in the continued support of all participating States in the OSCE Group of Friends on Safety of Journalists.

    I thank you.

  • PRESS RELEASE : Construction begins on new Single Living Accommodation at Imjin Barracks [November 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : Construction begins on new Single Living Accommodation at Imjin Barracks [November 2022]

    The press release issued by the Ministry of Defence on 3 November 2022.

    Due for completion in Summer 2023, the £13m project at Imjin Barracks, procured by the Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO) on behalf of the British Army, will deliver 69 new single ensuite bedrooms, with re-designed living and kitchen/diner facilities that will enhance the communal living experience for soldiers.

    The Imjin project is the first of a new wave of carbon net-zero constructions that will see major improvements to the standard of Single Living Accommodation (SLA) provided to Service people. The buildings are designed to enhance and support the needs of the military personnel that call them home.

    Director Basing and Infrastructure, Major General Richard Clements CBE was joined by Rob Vining from DIO and members of the project’s appointed contractor, REDS10, and technical service provider, Arcadis, to mark the beginning of construction of a new Single Living Accommodation (SLA) block at Imjin Barracks, Gloucester.

    Major General Richard Clements CBE, Director Basing & Infrastructure said:

    To be present at the start of construction activity at Imjin Barracks is a moment to be celebrated. Imjin is the first site to benefit under the Army’s Single Living Accommodation Programme which will invest £1.2bn and deliver 8,500 SLA bedspaces over the next 10 years. This is in addition to the 8,000 SLA bedspaces being delivered by the Defence Estate Optimisation, Army Programme. Investing in accommodation and the lived experience for our Service personnel is an immediate priority. We have listened to our soldiers and taken on board feedback to ensure a better lived experience for our people.

    The SLA Programme will prioritise the modernisation of under-invested, core sites that are to be retained across the Army estate. It will focus on removing the last of the multi-occupancy rooms whilst continuing to renew the oldest accommodation on the estate, raising the average Single Living Accommodation condition from ‘fair’ to ‘good’.

    Rob Vining, DIO, Deputy Head of Major Programmes and Projects (Army) said:

    I’m extremely proud to be able to mark this key milestone with the British Army, REDS10 and our technical service provider, Arcadis, as we break ground on the first of many new modern, carbon net-zero Single Living Accommodation blocks.

    Not only will the new blocks mean a massive improvement in the lived experience for our Service personnel, they also continue to demonstrate Defence’s commitment to carbon net-zero by 2050.

    I have been so impressed with the work my DIO colleagues and our Industry Partners have done so far and look forward to being here when we handover to the Army in Summer 2023.

    The block will be built by the appointed contractor Reds10 using modern methods of construction (MMC). This means 90% of the work can be completed off site for substantially faster delivery. The accommodation is designed to achieve very low energy usage intensity. The building will have solar panels, air source heat pumps for heating and hot water and a SMART building management system that learns how the building is used through a multitude of sensor data, ensuring that the building runs as efficiently as possible.

    Paul Ruddick, Chairman REDS10 added:

    It’s marvellous to be part of another project working with DIO and the British Army on improving the lived experience of our Armed Forces personnel. The triple-storey building at Imjin Barracks will not only harness MMC for faster delivery but also for a lower carbon, more energy efficient and higher quality product. Perhaps most crucially though, the design and construction are being driven by how the space will be used by Service personnel.

  • Sadiq Khan – 2022 Comments on Interest Rate Rises

    Sadiq Khan – 2022 Comments on Interest Rate Rises

    The comments made by Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, on 3 November 2022.

    Today’s rates rise is more bad news for the thousands of Londoners trying to get on the ladder or who must renegotiate their mortgages in the next year. The Tories took a gamble with the British economy, and households will pay the price for years to come.

  • PRESS RELEASE : Bank Rate increased to 3% [November 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : Bank Rate increased to 3% [November 2022]

    The press release issued by the Bank of England on 3 November 2022.

    Monetary Policy Summary, November 2022

    The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 2 November 2022, the MPC voted by a majority of 7-2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 3%. One member preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 2.75%, and one member preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 2.5%.

    As set out in the accompanying November Monetary Policy Report, the MPC’s updated projections for activity and inflation describe a very challenging outlook for the UK economy.

    Since the MPC’s previous forecast, there have been significant developments in fiscal policy. Uncertainty around the outlook for UK retail energy prices has fallen to some extent following further government interventions. For the current November forecast, and consistent with the Government’s announcements on 17 October, the MPC’s working assumption is that some fiscal support continues beyond the current six-month period of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), generating a stylised path for household energy prices over the next two years. Such support would mechanically limit further increases in the energy component of CPI inflation significantly, and reduce its volatility. However, in boosting aggregate private demand relative to the August projections, the support could augment inflationary pressures in non-energy goods and services.

    Other fiscal measures announced up to and including 17 October also support demand relative to the August projection. The MPC’s forecast does not incorporate any further measures that may be announced in the Autumn Statement scheduled for 17 November.

    There have been large moves in UK asset prices since the August Report. These partly reflect global developments, although UK-specific factors have played a very significant role during this period. The MPC’s projections are conditioned on the path of Bank Rate implied by financial markets in the seven working days leading up to 25 October. That path rose to a peak of around 5¼% in 2023 Q3, before falling back. Overall, the path is around 2¼ percentage points higher over the next three years than in the August projection. The higher market yield curve has pushed new mortgage rates up sharply. Financial conditions have tightened materially, pushing down on activity over the forecast period.

    GDP is expected to decline by around ¾% during 2022 H2, in part reflecting the squeeze on real incomes from higher global energy and tradable goods prices. The fall in activity around the end of this year is expected to be less marked than in August, however, reflecting support from the EPG. The labour market remains tight, although there are signs that labour demand has begun to ease.

    CPI inflation was 10.1% in September and is projected to pick up to around 11% in 2022 Q4, lower than was expected in August, reflecting the impact of the EPG. Services CPI inflation has risen. Nominal annual private sector regular pay growth rose to 6.2% in the three months to August, 0.6 percentage points higher than expected in the August Report.

    In the MPC’s November central projection that is conditioned on the elevated path of market interest rates, GDP is projected to continue to fall throughout 2023 and 2024 H1, as high energy prices and materially tighter financial conditions weigh on spending. Four-quarter GDP growth picks up to around ¾% by the end of the projection. Although there is judged to be a significant margin of excess demand currently, continued weakness in spending is likely to lead to an increasing amount of economic slack emerging from the first half of next year, including a rising jobless rate. The LFS unemployment rate is expected to rise to just under 6½% by the end of the forecast period and aggregate slack increases to 3% of potential GDP.

    In the MPC’s central projection, CPI inflation starts to fall back from early next year as previous increases in energy prices drop out of the annual comparison. Domestic inflationary pressures remain strong in coming quarters and then subside. CPI inflation is projected to fall sharply to some way below the 2% target in two years’ time, and further below the target in three years’ time.

    In projections conditioned on the alternative assumption of constant interest rates at 3%, activity is stronger than in the MPC’s forecast conditioned on market rates, although GDP is still expected to be falling at the end of 2023. CPI inflation is projected to be a little above the target at the end of the second year. However, it falls more than a percentage point below the target at the end of the third year.

    The risks around both sets of inflation projections are judged to be skewed to the upside in the medium term, however, in part reflecting the possibility of more persistence in wage and price setting.

    The MPC’s remit is clear that the inflation target applies at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. The framework recognises that there will be occasions when inflation will depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. The economy has been subject to a succession of very large shocks. Monetary policy will ensure that, as the adjustment to these shocks continues, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term. Monetary policy is also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the 2% target.

    The labour market remains tight and there have been continuing signs of firmer inflation in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence. Currently announced fiscal policy, including the MPC’s working assumption about continued fiscal support for household energy prices, will also support demand, relative to the Committee’s projections in August. The Committee will take account of any additional information in the Government’s Autumn Statement at its December meeting and in its next forecast in February.

    In view of these considerations, the Committee has voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 3%, at this meeting.

    The majority of the Committee judges that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the latest Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank Rate may be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets.

    There are, however, considerable uncertainties around the outlook. The Committee continues to judge that, if the outlook suggests more persistent inflationary pressures, it will respond forcefully, as necessary.

    The MPC will take the actions necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit. The Committee will, as always, consider and decide the appropriate level of Bank Rate at each meeting.

  • John McDonnell – 2022 Comments on the Bank of England and the Treasury

    John McDonnell – 2022 Comments on the Bank of England and the Treasury

    The comments made by John McDonnell, the Labour MP for Hayes and Harlington, on Twitter on 3 November 2022.

    Though we no longer have the Bank of England and Government working against each other, what’s as bad is they are now pressing on down same path to a deeper recession than external economic factors threaten. Planned redistribution through fair taxation and quantitative easing could prevent austerity, protect wages and investment.

  • Andrew Bowie – 2022 Comments on the Trade Surplus Left by John Major’s Government

    Andrew Bowie – 2022 Comments on the Trade Surplus Left by John Major’s Government

    The comments made by Andrew Bowie, the Conservative MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, on Twitter on 3 November 2022.

    Labour inherited a trade surplus of £4.6b in 1997, and left the country with a trade deficit of £35.1b in 2010.

    This Government won’t take any lessons from the Labour party and is determined to drive up trade, not just with the EU but worldwide.

  • Chris Bryant – 2022 Comments on Bullying and Intimidation

    Chris Bryant – 2022 Comments on Bullying and Intimidation

    The comments made by Chris Bryant, the Labour MP for the Rhondda, on Twitter on 3 November 2022.

    Wow the bots, trolls and bullies are really out in force at the moment. As I said yesterday, nobody is going to bully me into silence. You can hurl all the abuse, homophobic and otherwise, and it won’t make the blindest difference. I will always call out intimidation.