Tag: 2022

  • Matt Vickers – 2022 Parliamentary Question on Belarus and Russia Taking Part in Sporting Events

    Matt Vickers – 2022 Parliamentary Question on Belarus and Russia Taking Part in Sporting Events

    The parliamentary question asked by Matt Vickers, the Conservative MP for Stockton South, in the House of Commons on 24 March 2022.

    QUESTION

    To ask the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, what steps her Department is taking to help prevent Russia and Belarus participating in international sporting events.

    ANSWER BY NIGEL HUDDLESTON

    On Thursday 3 March, the Secretary of State and I convened a summit with 24 international ministerial counterparts – or senior representatives on their behalf – to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the response of international sport.

    The summit followed bilateral meetings that I held with counterparts from Canada, Poland and Germany.

    Following the international summit, a joint statement was signed by 37 nations and published on Tuesday 8 March, affirming the position outlined below:

    Russia and Belarus should not be permitted to host, bid for or be awarded any international sporting events.

    Individual athletes selected by Russia and Belarus, administrators and teams representing the Russian or Belarusian state should be banned from competing in other countries, including those representing bodies, cities or brands that are effectively representing Russia or Belarus, such as major football clubs.

    Wherever possible, appropriate actions should be taken to limit sponsorship and other financial support from entities with links to the Russian or Belarusian states.

  • PRESS RELEASE : Belarus teams to play on neutral ground in UEFA competitions [March 2022]

    PRESS RELEASE : Belarus teams to play on neutral ground in UEFA competitions [March 2022]

    The press release issued by UEFA on 3 March 2022.

    The UEFA Executive Committee met today and decided that all Belarusian clubs and national teams competing in UEFA competitions will be required to play their home matches at neutral venues with immediate effect. Furthermore, no spectators shall attend matches in which the teams from Belarus feature as host.

    The UEFA Executive Committee will convene further extraordinary meetings, on a regular ongoing basis where required, to reassess the legal and factual situation as it evolves and adopt further decisions as necessary.

  • Nancy Faeser – 2023 Letter Asking for Belarus to Be Removed from 2024 Euros

    Nancy Faeser – 2023 Letter Asking for Belarus to Be Removed from 2024 Euros

    Sections of the letter sent by Nancy Faeser, the German Minister of the Interior, to Aleksander Čeferin, the President of UEFA, on 16 September 2022.

    Not only Russia, which is waging a war of aggression in violation of international law, but also Belarus as an essential supporter of the Russian leadership should be excluded from all international football matches and tournaments.

    The suspension of Russian and Belarusian officials from the influential bodies of international sports federations as football must live up to its responsible role and show a united stance against this form of disregard for human rights. All those responsible must be deprived of every opportunity to participate in sport, exert influence or represent themselves in any other way.

  • House of Commons Library – 2022 Report on the UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement

    House of Commons Library – 2022 Report on the UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement

    The document published by the House of Commons Library on 8 November 2022, written by Dominic Webb.

    Text of Report (in .pdf format)

  • Anne-Marie Trevelyan – 2022 Government Response to the International Trade Committee Reports

    Anne-Marie Trevelyan – 2022 Government Response to the International Trade Committee Reports

    The Government response issued to the 1st and 2nd reports issued by the International Trade Committee.

    Text of Report (in .pdf format)

  • House of Commons International Trade Committee – Second Report on Trade Deal with Australia

    House of Commons International Trade Committee – Second Report on Trade Deal with Australia

    The text of the second report published by the House of Commons International Trade Committee on 6 July 2022.

    Text of the report (in .pdf format)

  • Northern Ireland Executive Department – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    Northern Ireland Executive Department – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    The comments made by the Northern Ireland Executive Department on 14 January 2022.

    Submission from Department for the Economy.

    Northern Ireland Executive Department with responsibility for trade issues.

    Free Trade Agreement:

    1      The Department is supportive of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) being reached between the UK and Australia, providing opportunities for some companies in Northern Ireland. However, the extent to which NI importers / consumers will be able to access goods under the terms of the UK-Australia FTA is limited to the extent to which product standards and regulations are aligned with, and in scope of, the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol.

    2          We recognise and welcome potential opportunities created for the Northern Ireland financial and cyber security sectors through the mobility and professional services provisions of the FTA. Also, the removal of trade barriers to exports gives potential to Northern Ireland advanced manufacturing, machinery and transport sectors to grow. This is to be welcomed.

    3.     However, the FTA published on 16 December 2021 does not deliver on UK interests as sensitive agriculture sectors are not given sufficient protection from imports. Notwithstanding the broader point made at Paragraph 1 above, our biggest concerns arising from the FTA is the impact on the beef and sheep sectors.

    4.   The Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) established are well in excess of current import levels.  The final TRQs prior to the removal of all tariff protection of 170,000 tonnes for beef and 125,000 tonnes for sheep represent 16% and 49% of UK consumption respectively.  Clearly if Australian imports approach anything close to these levels, there will be a major impact on domestic producers.

    5.   The beef quota has been set at 35,000 tonnes from the first year, which is an almost tenfold increase on Australia’s current beef TRQ of 3,761 tonnes which carries an in-quota tariff of 20%. The sheep meat quota will double Australia’s access from the first year.

    6.   The safeguard mechanism in years 11 – 15 of the FTA, is applicable in year 11 if imports exceed 110,000 tonnes for beef (representing 10% of UK consumption) and 75,000 tonnes for sheep meat (representing 29% of UK consumption). This volume of imports from Australia would already present significant difficulties to domestic producers, therefore the safeguard mechanism is set at too high of a level to offer protection and after 15 years there will be no protection.

    7.   The UK Government has stated that Australia will not be exporting significant amounts of beef to the UK or that Australian imports will replace imports from other countries.  Whilst recognising the appeal of Asian markets to Australian exporters, it is likely that Australia’s insistence on achieving a rapid and very sizeable increase in market access signals an intention of making significant use of it.

    8.   It would be expected that Australia will seek to increase exports of both beef and sheep meat to the UK following the implementation of the FTA. Australia exported 1.03 million tonnes of beef in 2020 which was a decrease of 190,000 tonnes on 2019.  Therefore it is certainly conceivable that Australia could export at least a further 170,000 tonnes to the UK over a period of 15 years.  There is no guarantee that Australian exporters will focus only on the Asian market for future growth opportunities and neither is there any guarantee that Australia exports to the UK will only impact on other countries exports of beef to the UK.

    9.   It should be pointed out that should EU exports of beef to the UK fall, this will be most significant for the Republic of Ireland and a surplus of beef on the Irish market will have negative consequences for the market in Northern Ireland. Furthermore if Australian beef displaces imports from other countries to Great Britain, this gives rise to concerns that it will also displace sales of Northern Ireland beef in our largest market.

    10.   The level of market access given to Australian beef, sheep and dairy products is unprecedented in FTAs between a country with defensive agricultural interests in sensitive products and a large agricultural exporter of these products.  Normally such agreements are characterised by low volume TRQs and high out-of-quota tariffs.  For example the agreement between the EU and Mercosur (not yet implemented) saw a TRQ of 99,000 tonnes agreed for beef (with a 7.5% duty) which caused significant concern from the agricultural industry.  On a pro-rata basis, this would equate to a TRQ of around 10,000 tonnes for the UK which is in stark contrast to level of market access in the UK/Australia FTA.

    11.   The outcome on SPS standards appears to be satisfactory, however, concerns remain in relation to animal welfare and anti-microbial resistance (AMR) as Australia allows the use of growth hormones to increase the weight of cattle, electro-immobilisation and tail docking of cattle, and mulsing of sheep, none of which is permitted in the UK.  The retention of tariffs on imports of pig, poultry and egg products is welcomed.

    12.   The FTA includes articles on non-regression from current standards on animal welfare but the provisions are weak. Ongoing co-operation on animal welfare and AMR may be beneficial but there is no guarantee that this will result in the same level of standards in these areas in the future.  The UK should have taken the differing animal welfare standards and approach to AMR into account in the negotiations on market access for beef, sheep and dairy products.

    Economic Consequence of Free Trade Agreement

    13.   In terms of potential economic consequences of the deal for farmers, Australia has a number of distinct advantages over Northern Ireland, and the rest of the UK, in terms of the land available for farming, climate and lower standards that allows it’s farmers to be able produce at a considerably lower cost. Analysis by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) shows that under normal conditions, Australian sheep prices can be £1/kg lower than the GB price and for beef around £1.10/kg lower than the GB price. Consequently there is a lot of potential for Australian beef and sheep exports to the UK to expand substantially over time as tariffs are eliminated.

    14.   Australian beef and sheep products have the potential to undercut UK producers and to reduce Northern Ireland’s market share in GB for these products. GB is by far Northern Ireland’s most important market accounting for around 70% by value of beef and sheep meat processed in Northern Ireland. We expect that the FTA will have a negative impact on Northern Ireland farmers from loss of market share in GB arising from increased Australian exports of beef and sheep meat.

    15.   The FTA will reduce the competitiveness of Northern Ireland products on the GB market which as outlined above is by far the most import market for Northern Ireland agri-food products.  Greater divergence in tariff policy between GB and Northern Ireland will result in more trade friction between GB and Northern Ireland in order to prevent goods from accessing the EU market without paying the EU tariff.

    16.   The FTA also gives rise to concerns of the potential impact on the UK Internal Market as it will create a divergent tariff regime between GB and Northern Ireland. Australian imports could come into GB at zero tariff which would undermine the competitiveness of Northern Ireland agricultural products in the GB market but when these goods are moved to Northern Ireland, they would be subject to a tariff unless they meet the not at risk provision in the Protocol. That will complicate goods movements from GB to NI further and a divergent tariff regime within the UK does not protect the UK Internal Market but rather does the opposite. Therefore the UKG should carry out an assessment as to whether section 46 of the UK Internal Market Act is being complied with.

    Future Trade Deals

    17.   The UK is currently in the latter stages of negotiating a free trade agreement with New Zealand, has launched negotiations with India, is developing mandates for the review of the Canada and Mexico continuity trade agreements and has commenced accession negotiations to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  We now expect that many countries negotiating FTAs with the UK or those seeking an FTA in the future, particularly New Zealand will push for a similar level of agricultural access to that given to Australia. Northern Ireland also has defensive concerns with New Zealand (dairy, beef and sheep).

    18.   There is concern at the level of market access already granted for sensitive agricultural products.  For example for lamb, 125,000 tonnes have been granted to Australia (prior to all tariff protection being removed) and New Zealand currently holds a TRQ via the WTO of 114,205 tonnes which when added together equates to 94% of UK consumption.

    19.   The cumulative impact of FTAs is likely to put further pressure on UK agriculture particularly if they are concluded on the same basis as the FTA with Australia.  Furthermore, without adequate safeguards, accession to CPTPP creates the possibility that agri-food products produced and processed anywhere within the block could be eligible for export to the UK without tariff.  There are opportunities in obtaining greater access to the Asian market.  However there must be realism about the economic potential for this to occur with lower cost producers and that most countries seek to prevent imports replacing domestic production to a significant extent.

    Impact Assessments

    20.   The Government’s revised impact assessment has moved away from using a regional apportionment approach in the main model to addressing potential differential regional impacts in the sensitivity analysis. The impact assessment highlights gains in services sectors and potential expansion in the manufacture of machinery across the UK. However, economic benefits of FTAs do not arise without reallocation of resources within the economy. While the impact assessment shows a small economic gain to the UK economy, there are significant reductions in output in agriculture, forestry, and fishing (around -£94 million) and semi-processed foods (-£225 million). When the sensitivity analysis is applied this results in a forecast reduction of 0.04%, or £16m, for the Northern Ireland economy. It also forecasts that in the same scenario Northern Ireland would be the only UK region to experience an overall decrease in economic output resulting from a specialisation in agriculture and semi-processed food, particularly beef and sheep.

    21.   The agriculture and food processing sectors in Northern Ireland are a significant element of our local economy, with around 78,000 employed in these sectors (based on 51,301 total farmers and workers and 24,945 food and drink processing full time and 2,034 employment agency workers), and around 4% of Northern Ireland’s Gross Value Added (GVA) equating to nearly £1.7bn at basic prices. The impact assessment is believed to accurately reflect the negative impact that will be felt in Northern Ireland from the FTA.  There are concerns that given the commitment by the UK Government that trade deals must work for all parts of the UK, it did not seek a different outcome on agriculture which would have avoided a negative impact on Northern Ireland. It is worth noting that the impact assessment was only shared the afternoon before publication, allowing no time to discuss the impacts on Northern Ireland.

    22.      Whilst an early analysis of the impacts of this deal for Northern Ireland would have been helpful there is now a need to go further. The UK is negotiating or seeking to negotiate individual trade agreements with various countries, however, the assessment of the impact of these agreements needs to be considered on a cumulative basis. An impact assessment of the combined impacts of the proposed Australia and New Zealand agreements needs to be prepared. This in turn should set the baseline for assessing impacts, to be expanded, as additional new or revised deals such as Canada, Mexico, India and accession to the CPTPP are negotiated.

    23.      Ultimately, the interaction between the provisions of UK Free Trade Agreements and Northern Ireland’s legal obligations under the Protocol are complex and create uncertainty in two key regards: firstly, the extent to which NI importers and consumers can access the full range of goods covered by the agreement, and; secondly, the effect on the competitiveness of NI suppliers within the UK. With limited success, officials continue to press their UK counterparts for greater clarity and assurances around the interaction of trade policy and the Protocol.

  • National Farmers’ Union – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    National Farmers’ Union – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    The comments made by the National Farmers’ Union on 10 February 2022.

    NFU response to House of Commons International Trade Select Committee inquiry: Agreement with Australia

    Summary

    1.      There is little in this deal to benefit British farmers. When it comes to agriculture, it appears that the Australians have achieved all they have asked for and British farmers are left wondering what meaningful benefits have been secured for them. This will just heap further pressure on British farm businesses already facing serious challenges such as a squeeze on labour, the phasing out of support payments and rocketing input costs.

    2.      The NFU is not opposed to free trade, but we do believe that deals must be balanced in respect of offering reciprocal benefit. They should also have adequate measures or safeguards in place to maintain domestic production standards and for those sectors deemed as sensitive. Without this, it is difficult to see how these deals match up to the government’s rhetoric to support our farmers’ businesses and to uphold our high animal welfare and environmental standards

    3.      Despite the UK Government’s assurances on sensitive sectors, products such as beef and lamb will be completely liberalised for Australian imports after 10 years, sugar after 8 years and dairy after 5 years. Specific bilateral safeguards within the terms of the agreement will only be available for a further five years beyond the point tariffs are removed. This means for beef and lamb there is no safeguard against a surge of Australian imports from year 16 onwards, year 14 for sugar and year 11 for dairy.   Furthermore, the meat quotas will be calculated on the basis of shipped product-weight, meaning more high-value cuts can be prioritised for export by Australian producers putting further pressure on market returns for British beef and lamb producers. The additional sugar volumes granted to Australia will coincide with the continuation for the next 3 years of the UK’s global Autonomous Tariff Quota (ATQ) of 260,000t.

    4.      British farmers are being asked to go toe-to-toe with some of the most cost-effective food producers in the world. But there is scant evidence that the government has the vision to create the conditions to allow our farmers to compete. We have seen some welcome developments in recent weeks, including the announcement of additional agricultural attachés in our overseas embassies, and the commitment to establish a UK Export Council, but details remain sketchy, and much more is needed.

    5.      We see almost nothing in the deal that will prevent an increase in imports of food produced well below the production standards required of UK farmers or in line with the expectations of the British public; for instance, on land cleared of forest for cattle production or systems that rely on the transport of live animals in ways that would be illegal in the UK. There is also nothing in the deal that realises protection and enhanced value for products carrying UK Geographical Indications.

    6.      Despite the downsides, there may be some areas of the deal where UK farmers could benefit directly and indirectly – for example through the export of dairy (premium cheeses), processed products (cereal preparations, cakes and biscuits) and alcoholic beverages (whisky and gin), although it is not clear that these benefits will be substantial, and increased trade in processed goods may benefit imported goods as much as domestic raw materials. The establishment of a specific UK-Australia SPS committee tasked with monitoring the implementation of the agreement and to provide a forum where parties can raise any concerns is welcome. For example, it could prove a useful forum for addressing barriers such as the Australian embargo on exports of UK pig meat and genetic materials.

    Introduction

    7.      The NFU welcomes the opportunity to provide evidence to the Committee’s inquiry on the impact of the Australia Free Trade Deal (FTA) on food and agriculture. International trade is fundamental to farming, the value chain it services, and the consumers who buy our products. The NFU supports an international trade outcome that support farmers to grow their businesses and to produce food for Britain and beyond.

    8.      We continue to welcome the government’s commitment to grow our exports of great British food abroad. We also support the government’s stated objectives in its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations to secure broad liberalisation of tariffs on a mutually beneficial basis, taking into account UK product sensitivities, including in agriculture. However, the NFU does not believe that the deal signed by the UK Government with the Australian Government on the 16th December 2021 sufficiently addresses the conditionality underpinning our government’s stated objective.

    9.      The Australian deal, coupled with the New Zealand “Agreement in Principle” signed in October 2021, represents a significant liberalisation of the UK marketplace. This means we will be opening our doors to significant extra volumes of imported food – whether or not produced to our own high standards – while securing almost nothing in return for UK farmers.

    How good a deal is the UK-Australia FTA for the UK?

    10.  Unfortunately, there is little in this deal to benefit British farmers. When it comes to agriculture, it appears the Australians have achieved all they have asked for and British farmers are left wondering what meaningful benefits have been secured for them. “This is the most comprehensive and ambitious free trade agreement that Australia has concluded, other than with New Zealand.” Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison 17th December 2021

    11.  Australia represents a market of almost 26 million inhabitants, compared to the UK population of 67.1million people and at present trade between both parties is well balanced. However, the structural gap between markets means that there is potential for the modest surplus the UK currently enjoys in agri-food trade with Australia, to shift to the detriment of UK producers.

    12.  The scale of production in Australia is large in comparison to the UK and Australian producers have cost of production advantages over the UK in many sectors. Australia produces substantially more food than it consumes. On average it exports 71% of its agricultural production and imports only 11% of food consumed.

    13.  The UK currently exports £473m worth of agri-food products to Australia (see Annex 1), of which £167m (40% of the total value of UK agri-food exports to Australia) is whisky. Other categories currently exported to Australia include dairy, meat and intermediate products such as cereals preparations and finished consumer products such as chocolate, baked goods and confectionary. Meanwhile Australia sends us £361m worth of agri-food, including £167m in wine (69% of the total). Trade between the two nations is at present relatively limited and predominantly focused within a limited number of product lines. The UK is presently Australia’s 15th largest export market and more than 80% of Australia exports to the UK are wine, beef and sheep meat. Removing tariffs across all agri-food products is likely to facilitate growth within product categories where tariffs were seen previously as a barrier and within sectors where the exporting nation is highly competitive, for example in the red meat sector where UK’s MFN tariffs range from 65%-113% for beef and 38-62% for lamb.

    14.  Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) sees the FTA as a means of significantly enhancing Australia’s access to the UK’s red meat market. “The UK is a market with good growth potential for Australian red meat exports, supported by its large population of affluent consumers very familiar with red meat. Despite having limited access to the UK market since it joined the European Common Market in 1973, the UK has been among Australia’s highest value export markets. Looking ahead, the Australia- United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement will modernize the existing trading regime and significantly enhance Australia’s access to the market.” Meat and Livestock Australia December 2021.

    15.  There are some areas of the deal where UK farmers could benefit directly and indirectly, for example through increased market access for of dairy (premium cheeses), processed products (cereal preparations, cakes and biscuits) and alcoholic beverages (whisky and gin). However, it is important to note, that bar the removal of Australian tariffs on cheddar and mozzarella, which are significant (at about 25%), the benefits for the UK’s farming sector of reciprocal liberalisation of tariffs within this deal is limited. In part this is because of Australia’s low starting point on many of its tariffs (i.e. many are at zero or 5%), but also due to the comparative size of the Australian market compared to the UK. In short, the UK has gone much further and has given up far more in terms of highly prized market accesses concessions than Australia has (see Table 2) without getting much in return, for instance when it comes to protection of GIs. There is far more in this deal of benefit for Australian famers than is for UK farmers.

    Table 2. Examples of base rate tariffs

    Australia UK
    0202 Beef 0% 65%-113%
    0204 Sheepmeat 0% 38%-62%
    0406 Stilton 0% £1.17/kg
    0406,20,30,40,90 (cheddar, mozzarella etc.) $1.22/kg (approx. 24-28%) Cheddar £1.39/kg, (approx. 44%)
    2208,30 Whiskies 5% 0%
    19 04, 05 Prepared bakery goods, cakes, biscuits etc. 0%-5% Approx. 8%
    1701, Raw sugar cane 0% £28/100kg

    To what extent has the Government achieved its stated negotiating objectives?

    16.  We support the government’s stated objectives in its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations to secure broad liberalisation of tariffs on a mutually beneficial basis, taking into account UK product sensitivities, including in agriculture. However, the NFU does not believe that the deal signed by the UK Government with the Australian Government on the 16th December 2021 sufficiently addresses the conditionality underpinning our government’s stated objective.

    17.  The NFU is not opposed to free trade, but we do believe that deals must be balanced in respect of offering reciprocal benefit. They should also put adequate measures or safeguards in place to respect domestic production standards and for those sectors deemed as sensitive.

    18.  The deal confirms three elements considered by government to offer UK farmers “safeguards”. The NFU welcomes the inclusion of these safeguard measures and believes that such provisions are prudent in ensuring domestic producers are protected against a surge of imports in the event it should be necessary. However, the true efficacy of the package of safeguard measures included in the deal is indeterminate.

    19.  The first aspect considered to be a “safeguard” is the use of tariff rate quotas (TRQs), covering a number of sensitive sectors. These TRQs will see steadily increasing volumes of imported products enter at zero duty, granting immediate access for large quantities of product over and above current levels of trade. For example, in Year 1 Australia will have access to 35,000t beef quota at zero duty. This equates to around 10% of the total’s UK import requirement. By Year 10, beef quota volumes will increase to 110,000t which is 30% of the UK’s import requirement and more than 12% of total UK production.

    20.  It is unclear how these quota volumes have been established. The government has not published analysis or modelling to justify the amounts set, nor to provide reassurance to farmers that at the level set, the quota volumes will provide an effective safeguard during the tariff phase out period. Clearly having them will provide a maximum ceiling in the amount of product that can be imported duty free during the phase out period, but the volumes are so great, that even in Year 1 significant increases in imported volume could have a disruptive effect on the UK market.

    21.  It is disappointing that the volumes set within the beef and lamb TRQs are determined in “shipped product weight” and not the more conventional “carcase weight equivalent” (which takes into regard a coefficient acknowledging that not all parts of an animal’s carcase are saleable and is therefore a fairer way of determining volumes of saleable product.) Shipped product weight favors the imports of high value cuts, such as striploins and boneless legs of lamb and results in imbalance across the carcase.

    22.  The quotas are single product quotas with no further conditions attached. For example, the beef quota is for total exportable volumes of beef, it is not split into volumes for fresh / frozen / bone in or boneless product. When determining whether the existence of a progressively sizeable quota is to be considered an effective safeguard, we cannot just consider the volume of imports limited by the quota– we must also consider the value. A relatively small volume of high value imports, such as steak cuts of Australian beef entering under the TRQs has the potential to significantly disrupt domestic markets and negatively impact British beef farmers. For example, a quota usage of say 20% in Year One (i.e. 7,000 tonnes of striploins) would require the equivalent of 20% of UK prime beef kill to produce.

    23.  The second aspect outlined by the government as a further “safeguard” is a product specific safeguard that will run from Years 11-15 for beef and lamb. This safeguard would allow the UK to apply a tariff of 20% on volumes of beef and lamb above certain volumes. In Year 11, the Australian’s will be able to send 122,000t of beef to the UK duty free, rising to 170,000t in Year 15 (almost half of the UK’s total beef import requirement). Additional volumes above those safeguard level would be subject to a 20% tariff. At such significant proportions of total import requirement, it is hard to see how effective the product specific safeguards will be.

    24.  The third is a bilateral safeguard which can be applied to all goods, whilst tariffs are being phased out, but not beyond the end of the transitional period (defined in Chapter 3, Article 3.1 as “five years after the completion of the customs duty reduction or elimination in relation to the good.”) –i.e. in the case of beef and lamb a bilateral safeguard is available up until Year 16, for sugar until Year 14  years and until Year 11 for dairy.

    25.  To use the bilateral safeguard clause there is a requirement to demonstrate serious injury or threat of serious injury to domestic production (Chapter 3, Article 3.6). The first and second “safeguards” identified above are product specific and can be triggered at an arbitrary and pre-defined volume of imported product (but not at a pre-defined value of imported product). However, the “bilateral” safeguard measure applies to all goods and is intended to provide protection if the sector faces injury as a consequence of increased trade with Australia. In this event, the UK Government could trigger an investigation and apply on a provisional basis (pending the outcome of the investigation) actions to reinstate tariffs or suspend further tariff liberalisation only to “the extent necessary to prevent or remedy the serious injury and to facilitate the adjustment of the domestic industry.” If the government were to take such action, the length of time such action can remain in place is limited to two years, with a further two years possible under exceptional circumstances. The conditions of use are also subject to a range of caveats which would have to considered in any potential actions taken by the government.

    26.  The bar to trigger action under the safeguard clause is set high. “Serious injury or threat of serious injury” is not the language of ordinary events in routine trade. Direct causal effect would have to be proven to be as a result of the increase in imports from Australia specifically (and not as a result of market conditions generally). In practice, this makes these types of clauses very difficult, if not impossible, to apply. It is much more likely that market pressure will happen because of the cumulative impact of increasing imports from around the world at the same time. The safeguard clauses in the UK-Australia FTA offer no protection against this. We call on government to step up its market monitoring to ensure any warning signs are picked up and action is taken early. We have watched how the government has handled the crisis in the pig sector where there is clear evidence of “injury”, cumulating in healthy animals culled on farm and farmers livelihoods destroyed. We hope this experience is not repeated.

    27.  Furthermore, the purpose of the safeguard is ultimately to facilitate the adjustment of the domestic industry to the new trading environment. It is not clear how the sector would be expected to adjust given the nature and somewhat limited options many farmers, especially livestock farmers in the UK’s uplands would have.

    28.  Notwithstanding our concerns regarding the applicability and efficacy of the bilateral safeguards, it is disappointing that the UK Government’s ability to potentially use them is also time limited. The agreement includes no safeguards that can be applied in respect Australian imports five years after the corresponding tariff for that good is eliminated (i.e. this is from Year 16 onwards for beef and sheep, which is the longest timeframe for any products under this deal on which these safeguards can be used). The NFU is therefore troubled by the Secretary of State for International Trade’s response to a question by Neil Parish MP, that the general bilateral safeguard is available at any point to protect a particular domestic industry.

    29.  “To reassure my hon. Friend on the safeguards, which are as robust as they come, we have secured three levels of protection. The first, the tariff rate quota, sets a maximum level for tariff-free imports in the first 10 years; specific agricultural products are listed and anything above that would face a much higher tariff. The second level applies from years 11 to 15 of the agreement and is known as the product specific safeguard; it has a broadly similar effect, bringing high tariffs above a volume threshold. The third is a general bilateral safeguard mechanism, or temporary safety net, allowing measures to be imposed in the form of increasing tariffs or the suspension of tariff liberalisation completely under the agreement for up to four years, and they can be applied on all products liberalised under the agreement at any point to protect a particular domestic industry. I hope that reassures my hon. Friend.” Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Hansard 06.02.22

    To what extent does the FTA deliver on the UK-Australia Agreement in Principle?

    30.  The Government announced an Agreement in Principle (AIP) with Australia on the 15th June 2021. The FTA text, by in large delivers on the terms set out in the AIP. The NFU expressed its concerns,, at the time of its publication, the potential negative impact of completely eliminating all tariffs on imports from one of the biggest agricultural exporters in the world. Details were scarce within the AIP and it was the NFU’s understanding that critical negotiations on safeguards and quota management would continue. The NFU continued its engagement with government proposing ways to manage the quotas and the nature of the safeguard provisions. It is disappointing that further points of detail relating to the management of quotas were not forthcoming in the FTA text, for example splitting red meat quotas into product codes (fresh/ frozen, chilled / frozen) and the use of Carcase Weight Equivalents (CWE) rather than shipped product weight.

    31.  There was no mention of animal welfare and environmental standard in the AIP.  As outlined elsewhere in this evidence. We see almost nothing in the deal that will prevent an increase in imports of food produced well below the production standards required of UK farmers or in line with the expectations of the British public; for instance, on land cleared of forest for cattle production or systems that rely on the transport of live animals in ways that would be illegal in the UK.

    32.  We note the commitment made by the Australian government in the “Agreement in Principle [1]” (AIP) published on 17th June 2021, that “neither side will seek additional access or faster tariff reduction through the UK’s accession to CPTPP.” Given the scale of the UK’s liberalisation commitments with Australia and latterly with New Zealand, it is difficult to conceive what more the UK Government could grant Australia that they don’t already have under the terms of the bilateral FTA. Nevertheless, the commitment from Australia not to seek further market access concessions in goods is a welcome element of the agreement. It is however unclear whether the commitment made in the AIP has been translated into a legal commitment within the text of the agreement.

    How are the terms of the FTA between the UK and Australia likely to affect those that you represent?

    33.  Australia is one of the major global agricultural players and as such represents direct competition for UK agricultural producers. It is the world’s biggest beef exporter (by value in 2019) and second largest (behind Brazil) in volume terms. It produces around 2.4 million tonnes of beef, exporting around 70% of its production. In comparison, the UK produces around 900,000t of beef meat each year and imports are relatively stable at about 360,000t. Australian exports alone generate more than double the total output of the UK’s beef sector (AUD $10.8bn v £2.75bn).

    34.  Australia accounts for 7% of global sheepmeat production and is the largest exporter of sheep meat in the world, controlling 48% of the global market.

    35.  Australia exports 80-85% of their sugar cane crop. It is the second largest export crop for Australia after wheat. In 2019 Australia produced 4.3m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.4m tonnes were exported. In comparison, the UK produces around 50% of its domestic consumption, with 1.1m tonnes of sugar produced in 2019.

    36.  UK farmers face significantly higher costs of production than farmers in Australia. For example, the cost of production for Australian beef farmers is around 2.5 times less than UK farmers and Australian sheep farmers can produce sheep meat 65% lower than in the UK. Differences in cost of production vary primarily as a result of vastly different scales of production. For example, of the cattle in Australia on feedlots (grain-fed), over 60% are on farms with a capacity for over 10,000 animals. In England the average size of a beef cattle herd is 27 animals and only 4% of beef farms here have more than 100 beef cows. Differences in climate also mean that animals in Australia are kept outside for longer which further reduces cost.

    37.  Having significantly lower costs of production gives Australian farmers a huge competitive advantage. Lower costs of production mean greater resilience and profit margins for producers who can supply a range of markets at different price points, meeting consumer demands in multiple markets around the world.

    38.  The signing of this deal, coupled with the New Zealand Agreement in Principle (AIP), represents a significant liberalisation of the UK marketplace The UK is likely to see an increase in the level of highly competitively priced imports of products which can be produced here, challenging UK producers’ position as the No.1 supplier of choice. The government is asking British farmers to go toe-to-toe with some of the most export orientated and competitive farmers in the world, without the serious, long-term and properly funded investment in UK agriculture that can enable us to do so. There needs to be a coherent approach across government to bolster UK farming’s productivity and ensure that agri-foods are at the heart of our nation’s export growth plans.

    39.  The Australian Government is investing $85.9 million to help Australian agribusinesses expand and diversify their export markets through the Agri-Business Expansion Initiative (ABEI). Announced on 23 December 2020, ABEI is part of a long-term strategy and commitment by the government, in close collaboration with industry, to help achieve sustainable growth and resilience in our agribusiness exports. There are four key elements of ABEI, including grants for market expansion, boosted in-country engagement activities, accelerated work on technical market access and greater collection and delivery of market intelligence to exporters. A fifth element is being delivered by Austrade and involves scaling-up their business support services to assist over 2,000 agri-food exporters each year. We have seen some welcome developments in recent weeks, including the announcement of additional agricultural attachés in our overseas embassies, and the commitment to establish a UK Export Council, but details remain sketchy, and much more is needed.

    40.  The government’s impact assessment confirms that the agriculture and semi-processed foods sectors are expected to see an increase in competition and are estimated in the modelling to contract domestic output relative to the baseline without the agreement. The primary agriculture and semi-processed foods sectors are expected to experience a reduction of around 0.7% (£94m) and 2.65% (£225m) in their GVA respectively relative to baseline growth in the sectors. The government acknowledges that “there are limitations to its CGE model’s ability to accurately reflect changing trends, which increases the uncertainty over the extent to which the estimated sectoral impacts for all of the sectors are likely to occur in the long run.”

    41.  An alternative modelling approach for the beef and lamb sectors is therefore included in the government’s impact assessment document (page 32). It suggests a reduction in gross output of around 3% for beef and 5% for sheepmeat as a result of liberalisation. Taking Defra’s Agriculture in the UK 2020, the gross output of beef production in 2020 was £2.929bn 3% off this is equivalent to £87million and 5% off sheepmeat, with a gross output of £1.346bn, would be £67million. The government model therefore finds as a result of its policy of liberalization with Australia alone, UK red meat famers will be £154million worse off as a result of deal, relative to what they would otherwise be without the FTA, via lower prices and less production in the UK. The modelling does not take into consideration further pressures on the sector as a result of the liberalization deal announced with New Zealand.

    42.  It is not possible to say with certainty how Australian exporters and UK importers will respond to the trade deal. Currency fluctuations, geo-political issues and variations in supply and demand will all have an impact on international markets.

    43.  It is clear however, that Australian exporters value a diverse range of markets to ensure that global sales are optimised and that any market disruption effects can be minimised by having a range of options open to them. AHDB notes in its analysis of the Australia deal (November 2021) that “geographically closer markets are probably more attractive than the UK market and the qualitative model demonstrates that in a stable world the impact of the trade deal will increase imports into the UK from Australia by relatively small amounts”. However, it goes on to note that “many Australian agricultural exports are currently going into markets where there can be significant non-economic trade barriers imposed rapidly e.g. China. If some of these markets were closed off to Australia, or demand fell due to lower economic performance of some of Australia’s current customers then it is quite possible the UK would be a very attractive market and trade flows could increase much more significantly in those situations.” It concludes therefore that “with Australian producers enjoying considerable cost of production advantages, the implications of lower priced material coming into the UK at some point (possibly quite soon) is very real and potentially substantial. When we include the change to farm support payments in the years ahead, the opening of trade represents a real risk to domestic farm supply chains.”

    44.  The threat of geopolitical factors affecting current Australian agri-food trade is not theoretical. A worsening of diplomatic relations with China is already having an impact on Australian exports. Over the last year there has been a 38% fall in the volume of beef exports to China from Australia. The uncertainty over precisely how much Australia will capitalise on its newfound preferential access to the UK agri-food market is precisely why the NFU has advocated the inclusion of more robust and meaningful safeguards than those available under the terms of the deal. If our concerns don’t come to pass the inclusion of such measures would be academic as they would never be called upon.

    45.  Ultimately concluding this deal with Australia represents a significant liberalisation of the UK marketplace. To date we have seen very little from the government on how it will work with the industry to achieve the gains necessary to thrive within this new more competitive trading environment – promoting exports, driving efficiencies and increasing productivity. If the UK does not take a joined-up approach between domestic policy and international trade, it will be challenging for UK farm businesses to compete with Australia either at home or abroad.

    46.  The UK Government should maintain an ongoing review programme of all FTAs as they are implemented and through the lifetime of the agreements. This should include a regular assessment of agri-food imports and exports under individual FTAs, looking at the associated effect on domestic prices and levels of UK self-sufficiency and changes in market penetration for UK exports. It should take into account the cumulative impact of each additional FTA as they are agreed and implemented. This will give reassurance to farmers that there is a solid evidence-base to develop domestic and trade policies dynamically as our new FTAs come online to help industry adapt and adjust as necessary. The government should identify an independent body to have responsibility for compiling and publishing the report. For instance, the Trade and Agriculture Commission could be given additional responsibilities to do so.

    47.  If these assessments demonstrate that UK agriculture is being irreparably harmed by FTAs such as those with Australia – contrary to the declared intentions of the government – then the government should seek to renegotiate aspects of the FTAs to alleviate the damage.

    What is likely to be the impact of the agreement on: the UK’s devolved nations and English regions?

    48.  Across the devolved nations of the UK, the nature of agriculture across is not homogenous. Different types of agriculture and horticulture pertain in different parts of the UK according to various factors such as climatic conditions, geography, topography, and proximity to market. Agriculture, and family farms make a very significant contribution to Wales’ cultural life and sense of national identity. The average size of a farm in Wales is 48ha, compared to an 88ha average size in England [2] and 4,331ha in Australia [3]  The Welsh countryside is characterised by farms of a modest size, typically owned and/or occupied by farming families, who will often have farmed in that locality for many generations. By their very nature, rural communities in Wales are small or in isolated locations. In these communities, it is often farmers and members of their families that support, sustain, and facilitate many aspects of community life.

    49.  Livestock production and dairying is dominant in the west of the UK (and very much predominates in Wales), whilst horticulture and arable enterprises are more typically encountered in central, southern, and eastern parts of the UK. The effects of the trade liberalisation in relation to meat and dairy is therefore almost certain to be felt disproportionately hard in Wales. The effects of trade liberalisation in the sugar sector will be felt in the East of England.

    What is likely to be the impact of the agreement on UK consumers?

    50.  The UK Government’s impact assessment states that the provisions in the agreement “aim to benefit UK consumers through increased consumer choice, better product quality and lower prices for imported products. The extent to which businesses or consumers in the UK will benefit from the reduction in tariffs in the agreement’s tariff schedule will depend on the rate of “pass through” of lower import costs from the importing business to the end consumer. Food (largely semi-processed foods) and non-alcoholic beverages are estimated to have the second highest tariff reductions of £2.4 million annually in the long term.”

    51.  The NFU agrees that the level of “pass through” of tariff removal effects is likely to be limited. The impact assessment shows that whilst consumers will benefit from some savings, largely in a reduction in the price of alcoholic beverages, it is clear that the UK’s red meat farmers are expected to face a much greater reduction in output as result of lower prices and reduced output.

    52.  The UK already has the third lowest proportion of household income spend on food in the world. There is no guarantee that increased competition on the market will create savings for consumers, but it will put pressure on domestic producers.

    53.  Pre-Covid, UK consumers spend on eating out was almost equal to that spent on food and drink in grocery retail and in 2019 the sector was worth £81.1bn to the UK economy. Although volumes are smaller, higher ticket prices add value and tight margins mean there is greater incentive to use cheaper raw materials in out of home settings. Whilst in the short term (given the high level of retailer commitment to British sourcing of proteins), Australian imports may not directly land on UK retail shelves, they are much more likely to be destined for the food service or manufacturing sectors where there is little to no transparency of sourcing or visibility of country of origin for consumers.

    54.  MLA finds that “the vast majority of Australian beef exported to the UK has been utilised in the foodservice sector, where it has an established place in high-end restaurants and catering. The UK is among Australia’s high value export markets with some 85% comprised of grainfed and the other 15% chilled grassfed. This has resulted in the five-year average unit price of Australia’s total beef exports to the UK being almost 75% higher than Australia’s global average export unit price (Source: IHS Markit).”

    How well has the Government communicated its progress in negotiations – and how much has it listened to stakeholders during those negotiations?

    55.  Trade negotiations commenced with Australia on the 29th June 2020. After four rounds of negotiations, followed by a period of continuous talks known as the “sprint” an Agreement in Principle was reached less than one year later on 15th June 2021. During that time, DIT organised a number of “Trade Advisory Group” calls with stakeholders. Stakeholders participated in these sessions under the terms of Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs). Despite this, by in large the meetings were generally to brief “after the fact” and stakeholders were told about decisions taken, as opposed to genuine engagement on key issues under negotiations.

    56.  Stakeholders were asked by DIT to rank the relative importance of aspects of negotiations, but at no time did government explain or engage with stakeholders on the detail of how specific negotiating points were being addressed within the live negotiations or its relative importance of the factors industry presented as its priorities. For example, beyond being told that the government recognised there were sensitive agricultural sectors, there was no discussion about the UK’s approach on total liberalisation of product lines, no presentation of its approach on TRQs, their volumes or durations and no discussion on whether there were to be any conditions attached to TRQs.

    57.  When the AIP was presented to stakeholders, it was with genuine shock and dismay to see the degree of concessions that had been made by the government. There had been no sense up until that point that this would be the outcome of negotiations. We recognise that during live negotiations it is difficult to share sensitive information, but nevertheless there was a huge disparity between the expectations of stakeholders and the final shape of the deal. We believe that the approach taken by the government during the negotiations was a missed opportunity to ground truth it’s assumptions. We therefore believe that the government’s approach to briefing trusted stakeholders on the state of play in negotiations via the TAGs must be reviewed and it should seek to create a genuine and more detailed technical level of engagement with industry experts.

    How well has the Government communicated the possible impact of the FTA, to enable you or other stakeholders to prepare for its implementation?

    58.  We do not believe that the government has communicated the possible impact of the FTA to farmers. It continues to point to the opportunities free trade will bring, which as noted elsewhere in this submission is likely to be limited in the case of Australia. It appears our government is reluctant to present any potential negative consequences of this deal, despite its own impact assessment coming to that conclusion for the sector.  This continued reluctance therefore limits the industry’s ability to have a constructive conversation with government about how it will mitigate potential effects, and what is required to adapt to the more competitive environment we are likely to face as a domestic industry.

    59.  The NFU has asked officials of both DIT and Defra to engage with us on the economic modelling it has carried out to substantiate its decisions made during the negotiations. For example, how the volumes of TRQs were set, how the phase out period was determined, why there is no segregation of products within quotas (i.e. fresh / frozen beef) and how increased liberalisation will impact at sector level. Thus far, we have been unable to have substantive conversations on the approach or government’s economic analysis findings.

    60.  We know that both Defra and DIT have carried out analysis that has not been published. On page 59 of the government’s impact assessment  (Impact assessment of the Free Trade Agreement between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Australia (publishing.service.gov.uk) ) it says that DIT have improved their CGE modelling by  “• undertaking the modelling at a more disaggregated sector level (the 61 sectors allowed by the GTAP 10 database) to reduce the potential for aggregation bias”. The 61 sectors include quite a few agricultural sectors, including beef, sugar and dairy. We therefore believe that DIT has more detailed-level results for sub sectors of agriculture/food than were presented in the IA. The NFU has not seen this analysis.

    What lessons and inferences for other current and future negotiations can be drawn from how the Government approached, and what it secured in, the FTA with Australia?

    61.  UK farmers are concerned that the deal with Australia and the AIP with New Zealand will set a precedent for future trade deals with CPTPP, Canada, the USA, Mexico, India and others such as the major agricultural producers in South America. Fully liberalising the UK’s sensitive agricultural sectors, even with “phase out” periods for tariffs, undermines the investments that UK farmers have been making, both on farm to improve productivity and deliver environmental or animal welfare gains but also in increasing their market share at home and abroad. At a time when domestic support for agriculture is also being completely overhauled it adds to the uncertainty and ultimately creates an un-level playing field for our farmers to compete on.

    62.  It is also worth noting that by providing fully-liberalised, preferential access to Australia and New Zealand for key commodities such as beef, sheepmeat, dairy, sugar and cereals, the UK lessens its negotiating capital with future trade partners. As countries like Australia and New Zealand increase exports to the UK, the value of similar preferential tariff rates to other countries will naturally reduce. This makes it more likely that the UK will have to offer significant concessions – larger than may otherwise have been the case – in order to secure UK priorities in future trade deals.

    Additional points of interest for the attention of the Committee

    63.  Animal Welfare and Environmental standards – The terms of the agreement do not create a level playing field in either animal welfare or environmental standards. The starting point of each party remains unaltered by the presence of the FTA commitments. However, what is foreseen is “non-regression and non-derogation” commitments that would prevent standards going backwards in a manner that affects trade, in either party. This is fundamentally different from whether there is a level playing field at the outset.

    64.  The environment chapter seeks to promote high levels of environmental protection and recognises the right to regulate to meet environmental and climate change objectives. It aims to strengthen cooperation in a range of issues (e.g. sustainable forest management, ozone depleting substances, circular economy, biodiversity). It affirms shared commitments to tackle climate change, including under the Paris Agreement. These are all welcome commitments, but it is unclear whether they will be translated into concrete actions. We also note that whilst there is reference to the Paris Agreement there is no reference to specific temperature commitments from Australia. Australia is a signatory to the Paris Agreement and finally has a net zero target but has not committed to a more ambitious 2030 target.

    65.  Specifically, the agreement includes a requirement that neither party shall fail to effectively enforce its environmental law through a sustained or recurring course of action or in a manner affecting trade – a so called non-derogation clause. It also states that a party shall not waive or otherwise derogate from, or offer to waive or derogate from, its environmental laws in a manner that weakens or reduces the protection afforded in those laws. (Chapter 22, Article 22 (6)).

    66.  Non regression and no derogation clauses intended to uphold fair competition are welcome, but we note that in many areas the UK already goes much further in terms of environmental protections. As such, we remain concerned about the import of products which undermine our approach to protecting and enhancing the environment.

    67.  Commitments within the environment chapter are subject to the agreement’s dispute mechanism, although in Australia this only applies to laws that are enforceable at the central level of government, despite many environmental laws existing at state level. This would appear to significantly reduce the scope of the environmental chapter in this agreement. The dispute mechanism includes scope for compensation and the suspension of concessions if either party fails to comply with dispute panel findings. This is welcomed and we expect that the UK Government will closely monitor Australian actions to ensure that commitments that have been made are upheld and if this was considered not to be the case, that speedy and effective remedies would be sought.

    68. –

    69.  The agreement also includes a specific chapter on animal welfare, understood to be the first time Australia has included such provisions in a trade deal. The NFU welcomes the efforts by UK negotiators to include this chapter in the agreement and believe that it sets a useful precedent that can be built upon in future.

    70.  The animal welfare chapter contains provisions that recognise the importance of and commit to maintaining high levels of animal welfare. It also commits both parties to cooperate on the important issue of combatting antimicrobial resistance (AMR). It retains the rights of both parties to regulate their own policies and priorities for the protection of animal welfare. The chapter does not agree equivalence (i.e. animal welfare regulations in each party are not deemed to achieve the same outcomes) but there is a commitment for both sides to endeavour to continue to improve their respective levels of animal welfare protection.

    71.  The chapter also contains non-regression and non-derogation provisions on animal welfare which means standards in either country can’t go backwards, nor can there be derogations to the way domestic standards are implemented if the aim is to undercut the other and distort trade. A joint animal welfare working group will be established to enable cooperation, to review animal welfare developments and to promote high welfare practises. This chapter is not subject to the dispute mechanism set out in the FTA which is disappointing and calls into question whether the UK government can take meaningful action to ensure that commitments made are genuinely upheld.

    72.  On AMR, the parties recognise the threat that AMR poses and note the solution requires a transnational and One Health approach which is in line with the Global Action Plan. In that respect, both sides will promote strengthened AMR surveillance and monitoring of antimicrobial use under a One Health approach. There is also commitment to cooperate in relevant international forums (e.g. OIE, WTO etc) on animal welfare and AMR issues.

    73.  The NFU welcomes the inclusion of a chapter focusing on animal welfare and AMR. We are pleased to see both sides committing to working together in international forums and promotion of high standards and the One Health approach will be key. However, it is clear that the standards of animal welfare in place in the UK versus Australia are very different. In Australia practises such as hot iron branding of cattle and mulesing of sheep are still common, whereas in the UK these practises are banned. On animal transport, journey times for animals in Australia can be up to 48 hours without water – and live exports of cattle and sheep can involve long journeys (with some boat journeys to the Middle East lasting many weeks), in comparison the UK is seeking to ban live exports for slaughter and further rearing. The UK Government is considering further reforms to the rules on animal transport including journey times. Typically journeys in the UK are just a few hours and very few are over 8 hours which is considered a long journey. This chapter does nothing to stop food being imported which has been produced in ways which would be illegal here.

    74.  The NFU has been clear that, for the UK to truly deliver on its ambitions for a more sustainable future and the goals of COP26, all aspects of policy, from domestic environmental and agricultural policies to international trade policy, must be joined up in their delivery of these aims. It is therefore disappointing to see the UK seeking to negotiate new free trade agreements with countries that are not taking a similarly ambitious approach to tackling the challenge of climate change without putting provisions that reinforce these ambitions in place. If the UK is to become a world leader in trade and climate policy, it needs to develop and implement an integrated strategy.

    75.  From an agricultural perspective, the Australian FTA facilitates significant increases in market access (and eventual full liberalisation) across all agricultural sectors. Agricultural production in Australia, however, is not subject to the same environmental protections as in the UK. For example, a significant proportion of cattle in Australia are raised in feedlot systems. Australia’s feedlots have capacities ranging from 500 to over 50,000+ head of cattle. Over 60% of the cattle on feed in Australia (i.e. resident on a feedlot) as of June 2020 were located on feedlots with a capacity for over 10,000 head of beef animals. Feedlots are a feature of Australian beef production and are huge in size and scale. This compares to the average size of a beef cattle herd in England at 27 animals and whilst there will be larger farms in the UK, only 4% of English beef farm holdings have more than 100 beef cows. Furthermore, in comparison, 87% of UK beef is produced using predominantly forage based diets, a system which is not only more climate friendly, but also supports biodiversity and the natural environment through extensive grazing. The use of hormones as growth promoters are banned.

    76.  The differences in these systems are reflected in their environmental impact. Average UK beef production has a carbon footprint of 17.12kg CO2e per kilo, this compares to a global average of 46kg CO2e per kilo. FAO estimates beef from Western Europe has a carbon footprint of c. 18kg and beef from Oceania a figure of 26kg. It might appear that there is a difference between production systems or between a subset of farms but behind the headline figures there is likely be a wide range in the data with some overlap. While the Australian cattle industry have improved their carbon footprint in recent years, this improvement is largely due to efficiencies afforded through the increasing use of the feedlot system and the use of growth promoting hormones, which are prohibited in the UK. Improved growth rates in younger cattle means they can be slaughtered at a younger age making them more efficient.

    77.  Such unlevel competition in trade deals threatens the UK’s ability to domestically produce food in a sustainable manner, which could lead us to relying on other countries to supply our food. This is not only a risk to domestic food security, but also an environmental threat, as we offshore the environmental impacts of food production and export our emissions to countries producing food through systems without the same climate ambitions and environmental protections as the UK. Furthermore, should we export our food production, we will also export the skills, knowledge and best practice that UK farmers and the wider agricultural industry have developed.

    78.  The NFU urges the government to ensure that upholding domestic standards in terms of environmental and climate change policy is at the heart of its trade policy and has argued that liberalised market access provided through FTAs is contingent on goods meeting the UK’s high domestic production standards, including environmental standards. Trade opportunities which uphold those ambitions should be prioritised.

    79.  Unfortunately, this approach is not reflected in the Australian deal. Research [4] highlights the threat Australia’s regressive energy and environmental policies, as well as food production practices pose in terms of climate change and global warming, which seriously undermine UK’s objectives to address the threat of climate change. The Australian beef industry has also been linked to largescale deforestation in Australia [5]. For instance, a recent report found that more than 1.6 million hectares of forest had been cleared in Queensland in the five years up to 2018 and 73% of this was for beef production.

    80.  Since leaving the EU, the UK has had the opportunity to launch a new domestic agricultural policy which holds sustainable farming and the environment at its core. This is most evident in the new Environmental Land Management Scheme (ELMS) and Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) which will give public funding towards land managers implementing environmental measures. While the NFU believes that productivity is a key element of this, such sustainable incentives are an important tool in moving industry towards methods of production which help tackle the challenge of climate change. This must be coupled with wider policy which ensures access to not only government funding, but also private sector funding to support climate friendly food production.

    81.  Sustainable and climate friendly food production is to be welcomed, but it must be recognised that it will often add to the cost of production. British farmers are proud of their high standards, and do not wish to see these reduced in the future. Such measures will only be effective if those farmers are able to implement them in both an environmentally and economically viable way. This means ensuring that British farmers can remain competitive and are not undercut by imports of agri-food goods which are not produced to the same environmental standards or level of environmentally sustainable ambition.

    82.  Market Access – The UK has excluded tariff liberalisation from its commitments for pork meat, chicken meat and certain types of eggs and egg products. The NFU has been told that this was in recognition of animal welfare concerns and difference in production standards, although the reality is that Australia is unlikely to have objected strenuously given the minimal export interests it has in these products. Nevertheless, this exclusion is a welcome precedent for future deals such as the one with Mexico where we have concerns about unfair competition undercutting UK producers. The irony that this welcome principle of exclusion hasn’t also been applied to other species within the deal is not lost on us.

    83.  Geographical Indications- The agreement provides no upfront legally binding commitment from Australia to protect the use of the UK’s agri-food Geographical Indicators (GIs). Chapter 15, Article 15.32 sets out that if Australia reaches a deal that includes specific GIs protections for agri-food products with another international trading party (i.e. not the UK) and therefore has to establish a system to deliver that commitment, then the UK will be able to put forward its list of GIs for recognition at that stage. To be clear there is no legal requirement for Australia to establish such a system as a result of the UK-Australia trade deal. We know that the EU continues to prioritise protection of its GIs in its trade talks with Australia and we expect that this will be a pre-requisite of any deal between the parties. However, it is unclear whether the EU and Australia will strike a deal in the near future, leaving UK GIs languishing in the meantime. In recognition of this uncertainty, the UK-Australia deal does say (Article 15.34) that if Australia does not introduce a scheme within two years after entry of force of the agreement, both sides will review the provisions related to GIs with a view to considering further provisions governing the protection or recognition of geographical indications. There is no legal requirement to agree or establish anything within this timeframe, just to revisit discussions on GI protections noting the interests and sensitivities of the parties.

    84.  The UK has 80 GIs on agricultural products to protect high quality product identities and protection against imitation. Geographical indications also allow UK farmers to differentiate their products in international markets to help improve their competitiveness and profitability. AHDB found that the real value of the PDO and PGI schemes which UK farmers can utilise, is derived from convincing consumers to pay a premium price for specific products. A number of studies have been conducted to seek to put a value on this. A European Commission-funded study by AND-International in 2012 calculated an average value premium rate for GI agricultural products and foodstuffs in the EU at 1.55. This means that GI products were sold for 1.55 times as much as non-GI products for the same volume. Approximately 25% of UK food and drink exports (by value) is generated by GIs, with exports totalling £5bn in 2018 [6].

    85.  High value UK cheeses carrying the GI designations are likely to be amongst the limited number of categories of food that will benefit from tariff liberalisation into Australia. It is therefore incredibly disappointing and a genuinely missed opportunity that the government has failed to reach an agreement with Australia on the use of GIs despite the significant market access concession that has been granted in favour of Australia. To be dependent on the outcome of other’s endeavours to establish protection for GIs is galling and ironic given claims of taking “back control. ” We must ensure that failure in the Australia deal does not create a precedent across other agreements. The NFU believes that ensuring GIs receive protection in all third countries must be a priority for the government

    86.  Rules of Origin – The Rules of Origin (RoO) chapter (Chapter 4) and its product specific rules (PSRs) annex contain provisions related to the rules of origin for goods. These stipulate how much of a product must originate in the UK to qualify for the trade preference (i.e. lower tariff or quota) when exported to Australia and vice versa. In this context, originate refers to the economic nationality of a good, rather than where its raw materials were “indigenous”. The agreement includes efficient and low-cost processes to prove originating status of goods, reducing the amount of paperwork at the border for traders and Customs authorities. Although we note that there is no requirement for verification visits by the importing country to ascertain if goods being imported into its territory are originating.

    87.  The PSR annex sets out specific rules for what counts as originating for each tariff line. Other than for goods which are wholly originating (e.g. animals born and raised or plants grown and harvested), chapter change is required to confer originating status on most agri-food goods, although there are some goods which merely need a change in tariff heading. Chapter change means the product being exported must be classified in a different chapter to the imported raw materials it was made of. For example, this means a meat pie could be made of imported meat (as the raw meat would be imported under chapter 2 and re-exported as a pie under chapter 16) or malt could be made of imported barley (barley would be imported under chapter 10 and exported under chapter 11 as malt) and it would qualify as originating. For goods which require change in tariff heading they just need to have been transformed from one tariff line into another, the lines could be within the same chapter. There are no non- originating content thresholds for value or volume, making it easier for non-indigenous products to displace UK ingredients in products such as chocolate and other finished products.

    88.  The NFU supports an outcome on RoO which facilitates trade and supports the use of domestically produced raw materials. The rules in the UK-Australia FTA are significantly more liberal than is seen in EU agreements and in the EU / UK TCA. We do recognise that there is a need in food manufacturing to include imported materials alongside those domestically produced, especially when considering the use of non-indigenous products. However, there is a careful balance to be struck and we believe any agreement on RoO should not encourage the substitution of UK raw materials for imported alternatives beyond what is facilitated today. In terms of demonstrating compliance (i.e. origin declarations) with RoO, we believe appropriate checks and balances should be in place to ensure the system is robust and the risk of circumvention and therefore the benefits of negotiated trade deals being undermined is minimised.

    89.  Customs procedures and trade facilitation- The Customs facilitation chapter (Chapter 5) aims to ensure that custom procedures in both countries are transparent and that the provisions reinforce the UK and Australia’s ability to maintain effective customs control. Provisions include a requirement for goods to be released within 48 hours of arrival at customs where possible. Expedited shipments (e.g. fast-track parcels) and perishable goods should be released within 6 hours. The chapter also sets out that the use of customs brokers is not required by traders on either side. Any new rules in this area for traders must be issued 90 days in advance and detail concerning customs procedures should be made easily accessible to traders, including electronically, with review mechanisms available to traders for customs authority decisions.

    90.  The NFU supports the provisions within the Australia deal which facilitate trade and believes border processes should be transparent, predictable and risk based. It is welcome that perishable goods will be expedited to clear customs within six hours, and we believe similar outcomes could be pushed for with other negotiating partners.

    91.  Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) – The UK Australia agreement builds on WTO SPS provisions and ensures both countries retain independent SPS regimes where imports have to meet the respective standards (i.e. the parties retain the right to regulate). Based on the WTO provisions, the SPS measures must be based on scientific principles.

    92.  The principle of equivalence is recognised and a procedure for recognition of equivalence may be established but is not present in the agreement. Equivalence is a process where the outcome of different measures is deemed to be “equivalent” even if the measures themselves are not the same. We strongly support the inclusion of unequivocal language in the text that “The final determination of equivalence rests with the importing party.” (Chapter 6, Article 6.7)

    93.  The principle of regionalisation is established allowing the UK and Australia to take into account local pest and disease status of areas where goods are sourced from. This is welcome.

    94.  The NFU strongly believes that the UK should maintain the right to regulate on SPS matters. We support the aim of preserving our right to regulate as we see fit, in-line with the WTO SPS Agreement.

    95.  The establishment of a specific UK-Australia SPS committee tasked with monitoring the implementation of the agreement and to provide a forum where parties can raise any concerns is welcome. For example, there is opportunity for UK exports of pig meat to Australia, but for this to be realised UK negotiators must seek to address the complex non-tariff barriers in place on pork imports to Australia. Australia has a strict import regime for pig meat, including specific requirements for the heat treatment and deboning of meat. For some products heat treatment would need to be carried out within Australia, e.g. for certain products containing bones. Uncooked pig meat may only be imported from Canada and New Zealand. Denmark, is presently able to export uncooked, de-boned pig meat to Australia, on the condition that the meat is heat treated before release on the market. There are no live pig imports allowed into Australia, which includes pig semen and frozen embryos. We export high quality genetics to other countries around the world and accessing the Australian market for genetic material would be a valuable addition for UK farmers.

    96.  The most apparent difference between the UK and Australian SPS regimes is the use of hormonal growth promotants (HGPs) for cattle, which has been registered for use in Australia for the last 30 years. Australia already has a dedicated EU and UK supply chain called EUCAS. This is a national animal production scheme that aims to guarantee full traceability of all animals. Our main concern is how robust these guarantees are, for example if surveillance testing is carried out in Australia to confirm animals declared as being HGP free are indeed so? In the UK and Europe animals are routinely sampled for residues, it is unclear if this happens and to what level in Australia. We expect the government to put in place a meaningful testing regime at the UK border to ensure that our strict legal requirements of having no hormone treated beef sold on the UK market is enforced.

    97.  Joint declaration on agriculture and agribusiness workers – The provisions ensure temporary entry for business-persons that will support economic recovery, enhance opportunities for business travel, and encourage people to travel and work in each other’s territory, on the basis of reciprocity. The UK and Australia will be making changes to their Youth Mobility Scheme (YMS) and Worker Holiday Maker Program Visa respectively to allow Australian and UK citizens aged 18 to 35 to apply for a visa for up to 3 years and will continue to not require specific work to be undertaken. The UK and Australia will ensure they support agriculture and agribusiness, by outlining visa pathways to facilitate mobility for those involved in agricultural work.

    98.  The NFU supports provisions which enable the movement of workers. These may be skilled workers who meet the criteria of the Points Based System (PBS) (e.g. plant scientists) or wider agriculture labour such as sheep shearers. Many young people from the UK agricultural community travel to Australia on working holiday visas. This is a valuable opportunity enabling them to gain experience at a scale not possible in the UK.

    99.  The NFU has long highlighted the challenge UK farmers, growers and the wider agriculture supply chain faces in having access to sufficient seasonal and permanent workers. We do not see an FTA with Australia as solving this problem. However, it is vital that UK farmers and growers are able to source sufficient skilled seasonal and permanent workers. Now freedom of movement of people has ended and the UK is operating the PBS there could be opportunity to increase the range of labour sources. Workers from Australia would meet the English speaking level required by the PBS for medium to high skilled workers. However, other barriers including earnings requirements and systems costs could make using migrant labour generally less viable for UK businesses.

    Annex 1

    Table 1. Examples of current trade 2019 (HMRC data)

    UK Exports to AUS 2019 UK Imports from AUS 2019
    02 Meat and edible meat offal £4,113,073 £48,343,061
    04 Dairy produce; birds’ eggs; natural honey; edible products of animal origin, not elsewhere specified or included £18,472,945 £1,009,632
    07 Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers £627,249 £10,379,736
    08 Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruits or melons £1,171,291 £4,379,957
    10 Cereals £3,222,077 £3,115,449
    11 Products of the milling industry; malt; starches; inulin; wheat gluten £1,239,678 £518,129
    12 Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medical plants; straw and fodder £1,383,729 £3,115,466
    15 Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes £2,942,682 £21,190,316
    16 Preparations of meat, fish or crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates £5,992,852 £68,988
    17 Sugars and sugar confectionery £6,903,663 £1,072,199
    18 Cocoa and cocoa preparations £21,212,614 £986,514
    19 Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; pastrycooks’ products £74,793,242 £2,680,946
    20 Preparations of vegetables, fruit, nuts or other parts of plants £6,655,741 £2,112,635
    21 Miscellaneous edible preparations £46,957,712 £5,128,375
    22 Beverages, spirits and vinegar £190,422,833 £248,798,130

    February 2022


    [1] UK-Australia FTA negotiations: agreement in principle – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

    [2] https://senedd.wales/research%20documents/16-053-farming-sector-in-wales/16-053-web-english2.pdf

    [3] 7121.0 – Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2015-16 (abs.gov.au)

    [4] CCPI-2020-Results_Web_Version.pdf (newclimate.org)

    [5] https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2021/12/15/australia-beef-deforestation-climate-brexit-trade-deal/

    [6] https://gpfoods.inparliament.uk/sites/appg_gpfoods.inparliament.uk/files/2021-06/APPG Minutes – GP Food 03.03.2021_0.pdf

  • UK Trade Policy Observatory – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    UK Trade Policy Observatory – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    The comments made by the UK Trade Policy Observatory on 14 January 2022.

    Recommendations:

    Monitoring and Evaluation

    1. While the DIT quantitative modelling appears sensibly done, nevertheless, with regard to the scoping and impact assessment produced by DIT considerably more information could be provided (for example in an annex) to enable more comprehensive assessment and scrutiny of the model. In particular, it would be useful to have more detailed information regarding the reductions in market barriers at the level of aggregation at which the model is run, and then the results on output, trade, and prices to be given at the same level of disaggregation.
    2. Similarly for services trade and investment, there is a lack of information about the non-conforming measures. For a wide range of stakeholders, especially business stakeholders, listed restrictive measures and possible impacts on business should be explained and summarised.
    3. Scrutiny mechanisms for implementation of the Agreement, particularly those areas which are aspirational and made operational through cooperation, should be made public, monitored and evaluated.
    4. We strongly recommend that the government publishes ex-post empirical assessment of agreements signed five years after the implementation of any given agreement. Part of the role of such monitoring and evaluation would be to consider the actual impacts in the light of what was agreed, and what was assumed in the impact assessments, and to identify any unexpected consequences / impacts.

    Lessons for future UK FTAs

    1. Rules of origin: the lack of cumulation arrangements that go beyond bilateral cumulation (diagonal or extended cumulation) in the agreement is a missed opportunity. We strongly recommend that in future agreements improved cumulation arrangements are negotiated.
    2. Digital trade: while the digital trade chapter is expected to create business opportunities and innovation, there are some issues that could impact on public trust, such as the UK’s policy choice in terms of narrowing policy space for safeguarding public policy objectives and arrangements to ensure British citizens’ data privacy in Australia. We recommend open policy discussions which include a wide range of stakeholders.
    3. Environment, SPS measures and animal welfare: clarity on ambition for maintenance of standards in these areas would be useful going forward as well as how cooperation mechanisms will be implemented in the UK context.

    Summary

    The UK-Australia FTA is a steady step towards the Asia-Pacific region

    1. The main value of the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) lies in policy development which may help the UK join the CPTPP, and as part of the Indo-Pacific tilt more broadly, rather than in its direct economic benefits per se.
    2. The UK-Australia FTA is the UK’s first FTA made ‘from scratch’. It is a supposedly “deep” FTA, the scope of which is on the face of it comprehensive, and aspires to high standard of rules from the international trade policy spectrum. However, in several areas the agreement does not provide binding commitments but resorts to ‘best endeavour’ clauses which do not entail any obligations on either side to improve market access. While many of the chapters, the UK-Australia FTA appears to have used the CPTPP as a template, there are some provisions that go further than the CPTPP. In general, the Agreement signals that UK policy could be consistent with CPTPP rules. However, in-depth analysis is needed as potential conflicts can also be seen in some of the detail.

    Limited economic impact

    1. Economic impact of the Agreement is very limited. The range of estimates from the government modelling for the UK is an increase in GDP between 0.02% to 0.08%. UKTPO modelling suggests an increase in UK output between 0.05% to 0.07%.

    Tariffs and Rules of Origin

    1. The UK-Australia FTA provides substantial tariff liberalization for most of the UK exports to and imports from Australia. The share of UK exports and imports that would pay zero tariffs would be more than 99% when the agreement entered into force. However, the agreement only allows for the bilateral cumulation of the rules of origin. On the face of it the product specific rules of origin appear to be relatively generous, but considerably more detailed analysis is required to confirm this.

    Services trade and digital trade

    1. In terms of rules, the UK successfully concluded a high level of rules regarding services trade both at the horizontal and sectoral level. The rules are more comprehensive, and some provisions are more ambitious than those in the CPTPP. This would provide legal certainty to UK business and generally facilitate CPTPP’s accession. However, the number of Australia’s non-conforming measures under the UK-Australia FTA has increased from those under the CPTPP, which requires further analysis.
    2. The digital trade chapter used the Australia-Singapore Digital Economy Agreement as a template. The chapter is business friendly and more ambitious than the CPTPP. On the other hand, narrower policy space to achieve public policy objectives and unclear technical and legal mechanisms to ensure compatibility of data privacy between the UK and Australia may endanger the EU’s adequacy decision to the UK and public trust.

    Food standards and environmental issues

    1. Food standards and environmental issues have been critical areas of debate for the UK-Australia FTA. The UK Government’s negotiating objectives were to uphold the UK’s ‘high standards of environmental protection, animal welfare and food safety standards.’ The Environment Chapter is wide-ranging it its coverage, and while many commitments are aspirational, there are commitments to implement international environmental agreements and the inclusion of cooperation on the transition to a circular economy. The Environment Chapter is underpinned by a bespoke dispute mechanism. The SPS Chapter affirms the WTO SPS Agreement and includes provision for equivalence that ultimately rests with the importing Party. The Agreement contains an Animal Welfare Chapter resting on cooperation between the Parties in ensuring high levels of animal welfare

    Introduction

    1. Through the UK-Australia FTA, the UK has made some progress in its geopolitical strategy of “pivoting towards the Asia Pacific” and towards joining the CPTPP. This is in line with its stated negotiating objectives: “Strategically, the UK Government’s aim is to place the UK at the centre of a network of modern FTAs, turning our country into a global hub for businesses and investors who want to trade in dynamic areas of the world – especially in the Asia Pacific. Pivoting towards the Asia Pacific will help diversify our trade, make our supply chains more resilient and make the UK less vulnerable to political and economic shocks in certain parts of the world.” (UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement -The UK’s Strategic Approach, p6 -hereafter, UK’s negotiating objectives). However, as will be explained later, the economic impacts of the UK-Australia FTA will be small overall.
    2. Our written evidence mainly responds to the five questions that ITC set for this inquiry:
    1. How good a deal is the UK-Australia FTA for the UK?
    2. To what extent has the Government achieved its stated negotiating objectives?
    3. How are the terms of the FTA between the UK and Australia likely to affect you, your business or organisation, or those that you represent?
    4. What is likely to be the impact of the agreement on the UK’s economy as a whole (and particular sectors of the UK economy, the UK’s devolved nations and English regions, UK consumers)?
    5. What lessons and inferences for other current and future negotiations can be drawn from how the Government approached, and what it secured in, the FTA with Australia?
    1. Given the limited time available for responding to the Committee, in this response we focus on the following areas of the agreement: (i) tariffs and rules of origin; (ii) food standards and environmental issues; (iii) services trade; and (iv) digital trade. The evaluation provided in this evidence should be seen as a preliminary assessment. Other chapters of the FTA, such as technical barriers to trade or with regard to SMEs, have not been assessed for this submission.

    Economic impacts:

    1. How good a deal is the UK-Australia FTA for the UK?
    2. What is likely to be the impact of the agreement on the UK economy, sectors etc.?
    1. There are several points to note in response to these questions which we take together:
    2. First, the overall economic impact of this agreement on the UK is expected to be extremely small. This derives primarily from the fact that the share of Australia in the UK’s exports and imports of both goods and services in 2020 was only 1.6% and 0.8% respectively. [2]
    3. The small economic impact of the agreement can be seen from the table below which gives the government’s own assessments of the impact, and which compares the simulated outcomes in the scoping assessment with the recently published impact assessment:
    Macroeconomic Results Scoping Assessment

    (“Scenario 2”, 2018 values)

    Impact Assessment

    (2019 values)

    Change in GDP 0.02% £0.5 billion 0.08% £1.8 bn
    Change in UK exports to AUS 7.30% £0.9 billion 44.20% £5.4 bn
    Change in UK imports from AUS 83.20% £4.2 billion 66.10% £4.3 bn
    Change in total UK exports 0.30% 0.43% £3.0 bn
    Change in total UK imports 0.10% 0.36% £2.6 bn
    Change in real wages 0.05% £0.4 billion 0.10% £0.9 bn

     

    1. Note the ‘headline’ number for the change in UK GDP from the recent impact assessment was £2.3bn, as opposed to the £1.8bn in this table. This is because the core model used by the government generates the £1.8bn number. This is then adjusted on the basis of assumptions made about the changes in patterns of trade up to 2035. As these assumptions are much more speculative, we are using the unadjusted numbers here.
    2. Note too, the difference in the numbers between the scoping assessment and the impact assessment. This does not reflect any ‘massaging’ of the numbers, but is driven by some changes in the underlying data, by some of the modelling assumptions, and also by adjusting the degree of market access liberalisation being modelled. [3] Not only are the impact on GDP numbers different, but whereas the scoping assessment suggested that UK exports to Australia would increase by 7.3%, the impact assessment suggests that exports may increase by 44%. Similarly the scoping assessment suggested the impact on the overall level of economic activity in Northern Ireland could be negative, this is no longer the case with the impact assessment. This reveals that model results can be sensitive to the data used, the modelling assumptions, and the size of the policy changes which is being simulated. Overall, our assessment is that the modelling undertaken appears sensible and well done. However, considerably more information could be provided (for example in an annex) to enable more comprehensive assessment and scrutiny of the model, and to understand what is driving the difference in results between the scoping assessment and the impact assessment. In particular, we would have liked to have seen more information regarding the reductions in market barriers at the level of aggregation at which the model is run, and then the results on output, trade, and prices to be given at the same level of disaggregation.
    3. Nevertheless, the range of estimates from the government modelling is an increase in GDP for the UK of between 0.02% to 0.08%.  Using our own model, which is much more detailed / disaggregated sectorally than the government’s model, but which does not include general equilibrium effects (e.g. impacts on wages and thus costs), we find an increase in output of between 0.05% to 0.07%. Overall, therefore, the modelling suggests that the effects are indeed negligible.
    4. Second, if overall, the net impacts are very small, this raises the question of what would / could make this a ‘good deal’. There are three approaches one could take to this question:
    1. Are there particular industries/sectors which benefit from the agreement and relatedly did the UK secure progress with regard to its’ offensive interests? This could be with regard to specific sectoral interests, or policy areas: climate, digital, SPS; or ‘groups’ within society (gender, SMEs, regions). Hence, as opposed to focussing on the net (ie total impacts), one needs to look at the detailed impacts.
    2. In relation to broader objectives such as the pivot to Asia-Pacific, is the UK-Aus agreement a stepping stone to the CPTPP? Or
    3. as a means for establishing general principles for UK approach to policy areas (digital, climate).
    1. With regard to (i) it is worth looking at the simulated sectoral impacts, and also to consider whether any progress was made in broader policy areas (see discussion in section below on what was agreed in selected chapters of the agreement). The modelling results by sector are driven by the relative changes in market access barriers. The reductions in market access barriers in goods come from the reductions in tariffs and in non-tariff measures; and in services from any reductions in regulatory barriers.
    2. On tariffs the agreement is very comprehensive with tariff elimination on almost all products – some have a longer phase in period such as metals for Australia (five years). Prior to the agreement 66% of UK exports to Australia face a tariff, while only 7% of Australian exports to the UK faced a tariff. A key reason for this asymmetry is that over 80% of UK imports from Australia are in the category ‘gold and pearls’, and where the UK tariff is either zero or extremely low.
    3. If we take UK exports, out of 21 sectors there are 11 sectors where more than 80% of UK exports in that sector to Australia face tariffs with the highest shares being in textiles (99%, with an average tariff of 7.04%), leather (98%,  with a an average tariff of 1.39%), footwear (98%, with an average tariff of 7.8%), ceramics and glass (97%, with an average tariff of 2%) and wood products (91%, with an average tariff of 1%).  Analogously looking at UK imports, there are 8 sectors where over 80% of Australian imports face a positive tariff, with the highest shares in arms and ammunition (100%, with an average tariff of 1.6%), animal and vegetable fats and oils (99%, with an average tariffs of 1.8%), foodstuffs beverages and tobacco (98%, with an average tariff of 2.5%), animals and animal products (96%, with an average tariff of less than 1%), and footwear (96%, with an average tariff of 2.9%). These are therefore the sectors most likely to be affected by tariff liberalisation.
    4. Table 1 in the appendix below replicates the sectoral results from the scoping and the impact assessments. This table indicates that the UK sector that may gain the most from the agreement is motor vehicles and parts, followed by other machinery and equipment; and the sectors that see output decline by the most are semi-processed foods and agriculture. The modelling we have done is for 116 sectors covering agriculture, manufacturing and services, where we find that the sectors which appear to gain the most from the decrease in barriers to trade are iron and steel, and other electronic goods; while those with the biggest negative impact are wine and the processing of meat (note we do not model unprocessed meat separately). The results for the top 10 and bottom 10 industries with the largest positive and negative impacts can be seen in Table 2 in the appendix. What this illustrates is that while there are sectoral differences across the sectors, the effects are still nevertheless extremely small.
    5. Leaving aside the sectoral impacts, the agreement does include progress in certain policy areas (see discussion in section), such as the flow of workers for business purposes or with regard to digital trade.
    6. With regard to services (see fuller discussion below), the liberalisation commitments are more liberal than those under the WTO. However, there appears to be de facto little liberalisation as these lock in the existing applied levels of market access. The Agreement largely focusses on binding in each country’s existing applied levels of services barriers, thus precluding the possibility of these being subsequently raised. So while this does not represent an actual liberalisation per ser, by providing more certainty it is likely to facilitate more services trade to a some degree.
    7. With regard to (ii) it is probably the case that signing the agreement may make accession to the CPTPP easier. However, as there is a lack of detail and precision as to the governments aims in its free trade agreements on key policy areas (other than to be world leading) it is not possible to assess (iii).

    Rules of Origin:

    1. To what extent has the Government achieved its stated negotiating objectives?
    1. Negotiating objectives:

    Develop simple and modern Rules of Origin that reflect UK industry requirements and consider existing, as well as future, supply chains supported by predictable and low-cost administrative arrangements (DIT, UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement The UK’s Strategic Approach, p9) [4]

    33.   In answer to this question, we focus on some of the key areas in the agreement, and assess what has been agreed and the potential implications for the UK.

    34.   The tariff liberalisation discussed earlier depends on firms being able to satisfy or meet the rules of origin. Hence in assessing the agreement it is also important to assess the rules of origin – should they be set at a more demanding level it is less likely that firms will be able to take advantage of the tariff preferences. By way of example, in the UK-EU TCA and up to October 2021, the preference utilisation rate was only around 70%, indicating that 30% of UK exports to the EU that were potentially eligible for preferential access paid tariffs.

    35.   Leaving aside agricultural products for which the rule is normally that they have to be wholly obtained, there are three broad rules of origin typically used in trade agreements. These are (i) whether or not the intermediate inputs used to produce the good fall into a different tariff classification (CTC rule) to the final good; the value added (VA) rule specifies that there must be minimum level of value added from the partner country; and the specific production processes rule (SP), specifies certain production processes that must be used for the good to qualify. Note that the CTC rule can be applied at a very fine level of disaggregation which makes it easier to be complied with; or it can be specified at a much broader level of disaggregation which makes it harder to be complied with.

    36.   These rules can be used in combination. Hence, in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) for nearly 23.6% of the products the rule specifies that more than one rule has to be satisfied eg. a CTC rule and a VA rule. Clearly having to satisfy two rules is more demanding than just one rule. Conversely, a choice between rules can be specified eg. a CTC rule or a VA rule. This gives firms more options and is generally seen as providing more generous rules of origin which are easier for firms to comply with. In the UK TCA this occurs in nearly 35.7% of cases.

    37.   Given the preceding there are several features of the UK-Australia FTA (UK-Aus) rules of origin worth highlighting:

    1. The CTC rule is applied with regard to 36.6% of the products, whereas in comparison in the TCA the figure is 13.4%. Note that in the UK-Aus deal the wholly obtained rule is never used, whereas it appears in 9.5% of cases in the TCA. In the UK-Aus deal, however, in 22.6% of cases it is specified at quite an aggregate (HS 2-digit) level which thus makes it harder for firms to comply with and becomes closer to the wholly obtained rules which is used in 9.5% of cases in the TCA. More detailed work would need to be undertaken to assess what share of trade is thus affected, and whether the greater user of the CTC rule reflects rules of origin which are easier for firms to comply with However, this is particularly the case for Animal and animal products where 100% of the rules are the CTC rule specified at the aggregate level; vegetable products (91%), foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco where this is the case for 64% of products, and textiles and clothing where the share is 46%. These are probably the sectors where the rules of origin may be hardest to comply with.
    2. The need to satisfy more than one rule is never applied – and this is positive. In contrast to the TCA, in the UK-Aus agreement giving firms the choice of rules occurs in 63% of cases, and in nearly half of these cases the choice is between the CTC rule and the VA rule.
    3. The agreement only provides for the bilateral cumulation of rules of origin (ie that UK inputs can be used to produce a good in Australia and when the good is exported back to the UK, the UK input is classified as originating). However, there are no provisions for diagonal cumulation. There is just a clause encouraging this to be explored in the future (Article 4.29.2(e)). The lack of diagonal cumulation is a missed opportunity.

    Trade in Services

    38.   The following evaluation mainly answer the three questions:

    1. To what extent has the Government achieved its stated negotiating objectives?
    2. How are the terms of the FTA between the UK and Australia likely to affect you, your business or organisation, or those that you represent?
    3. What lessons and inferences for other current and future negotiations can be drawn from how the Government approached, and what it secured in, the FTA with Australia?

    General understanding

    39.   UK exports of services accounted for 54% of UK’s total exports to Australia in 2020 (ONS Pink Book 2021). Therefore, a substantive deal in services trade would constitute an important element of any agreement with Australia. Nevertheless, as discussed earlier the overall economic impact is likely to be small as Australia accounts for 1.72% of total UK services exports, and 1.17% of UK services imports. [5]. However, services trade both in terms of imports and exports between Australia and the UK has increased over 30% in the last decade [6] even without an FTA.

    40.   In the case of Australia, (as the DIT UK-Australia FTA -The UK’s Strategic Approach), Australia provides higher levels of market access under its FTAs than it provides under its GATS commitments in the WTO commitments. Many governments also unilaterally provide higher levels of market liberalisation than those provided under its FTAs. [7]  This means that there is policy space between the level of autonomous liberalisation and the level of bound liberalisation. In theory, therefore, there are two benefits of the UK-Australia FTA for the UK. One would be to lock in the current applied levels of autonomous liberalisation. Another would be to obtain preferential market access to Australia and bring gains to UK business which are currently doing business on the applied MFN basis.

    41.   To see the current level of access the OECD services trade restrictiveness index (STRI) provide useful benchmarks. Looking at the level of Australia’s regulatory restrictions in services trade, the STRI shows that Australia’s restrictiveness across 22 sectors is lower than the OECD average except for courier services, The OECD’s Digital STRI shows a similar result.  Australia’s restrictiveness in digital services trade is much lower than the OECD average and even lower than the UK’s restrictiveness. This indicates that Australia is de-facto liberal market, and the country provides a good business environment for services trade and digital trade. In contrast, Australia’s investment restrictiveness is much higher than the OECD average. [8]

    42.   We analyse the services trade deal in the UK-Australia FTA by looking at: (i) levels of Australia’s market access commitments and (ii) levels of bilateral regulatory cooperation both at the horizontal and the sectoral levels. We use the UK’s negotiating objectives and the CPTPP as benchmarks.

    Cross-border services

    Negotiating Objectives:

    1. Agree best-in-class rules for all services sectors, as well as sector-specific rules, to support our world-leading services industry, including key UK export sectors, such as financial services, professional and business services and transport services (DIT, UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement The UK’s Strategic Approach, p10)

    Rules

    1. The chapter on cross-border supply of services (Chapter 8) uses the CPTPP rules as a template. Some parts of the rules go beyond the CPTPP reflecting policy developments in other fora and evolving features of business. For example, domestic regulation (Article 8.8) is more detailed than the domestic regulation clause in the CPTPP by reflecting the WTO plurilateral reference paper on services domestic regulation, the negotiation of which was concluded December 2021. [9] In addition to cross-cutting rules, sectoral rules in detail are provided in its annexes: Express delivery services (Annex 8A) and international maritime transport services (Annex 8B). It is observed that these provide high standard rules and would provide a better regulatory environment for UK business. For example, Express delivery services (Annex 8A) provides rules regarding a postal monopoly and universal service obligation. Since courier services is Australia’s most restricted services according to the OECD services restrictiveness index, the clauses such as the ban on cross-subsidies by a postal monopoly and strict rules not to abuse a postal monopoly position (Ar. 3) are expected to facilitate UK services suppliers’ business.
    2. Financial Services: The Agreement has a standalone chapter on financial services. The rules of Financial Services (Chapter 9) can be seen as a comprehensive and high standard chapter. Whilst the Chapter is based on the CPTPP Chapter 11, it is observed that the text under the UK-Australia FTA was further developed from the CPTPP text to improve legal clarities and reflect business needs, financial regulatory authorities’ policy needs and consumer benefits. For example, prudential exception (Art. 9.3), financial data and information (Art. 9.12), electronic payments (Art. 9.16) and sustainable finance (Art. 9.19) are new provisions that are not in the CPTPP. Also, an Annex on Financial Services Regulatory Cooperation (Annex 9C) provides a framework for future regulatory cooperation between the UK and Australia.
    3. Telecommunications: The standalone chapter of telecommunications (Chapter 12) mostly replicated the telecommunications chapter in the CPTPP. The UK-Australia modernised the CPTPP text by reflecting certain technological developments.   For example, improved legal certainty in relation to the WTO’s rules is expected to facilitate UK telecommunication providers doing business in Australia.
    4. Transport services: The UK’s negotiating objectives include transport services as key sectors. One   development can be seen in the inclusion of the specific annex on international maritime transport services (Anne 8B). For example, the non-discriminatory treatment principle provides more legal certainty to UK services providers, such as UK shipping companies and ships flying the UK flag, in accessing ports and related services.
    5. Business mobility and temporary entry for business persons: The negotiating objectives underlined to “enhance opportunities for business travel and supporting the MRPQs”. It is observed that the UK government has achieved its negotiating objectives to a certain degree.
    6. The agreement includes a standalone chapter on professional services and recognition of professional qualifications (Chapter 10) for the first time in the UK’s FTAs. Given that the UK’s comparative advantage lies in professional services, developing the rules in the area could make a positive contribution to UK professional services.
    7. On the other hand, it should be noted that Australia is the least restrictive country regarding professional services at the outset.  According to the OECD restrictiveness index (2020), legal services in Australia are even one of the least restrictive among the OECD countries. And other professional services, such as accounting services and engineering services are also among the least restrictive services sectors of Australia. In this regard, there may be lower gains from an FTA unless the UK and Australia successfully achieve mutual recognition for specific professional services.
    8. The standalone chapter on professional services and recognition of professional qualifications simply encourages relevant bodies to establish and maintain systems for recognition of professional qualifications (Art. 10.3) and no mutual recognition seems to be agreed at this stage. Chapter 10. 4.3 stipulates that “A Party may consider, if feasible, taking steps to encourage its relevant bodies to consider implementing procedures for the temporary, or project-specific licensing of professional service suppliers of the other Party. That regime should not operate to prevent a professional service supplier gaining a local licence once that supplier satisfies the applicable local licensing requirements”. Also, recognition of professional qualifications of the other Party is a best endeavours clause as provided in Recognition of Professional Qualifications (Art. 10.5.1). Although the Professional Services Working Group is established (Art. 10.6), it is only the relevant bodies of specific professional services that are able to develop systems for the recognition of professional qualifications.
    9. Among professional services, it is in legal services in where concrete outcomes were achieved. as, for example, UK and Australian lawyers are guaranteed to be allowed to provide legal advisory services in home, foreign, and international law, using their existing qualifications (Art. 10.7). Also, legal services are the only professional services for which a regulatory dialogue is established (Art. 10.8).

    Liberalisation commitments

    1. Commitments for cross-border services trade and investment: The Agreement applies the negative list approach to liberalisation commitments. There are two types of non-conforming measures (Annex I: Schedules of Non-Conforming Measures for Services and Investment and Annex II: Schedules of Non-Conforming Measures for Services and Investment). The first type (Annex I) is existing measures that do not fulfil some or all of the six obligations: national treatment, MFN, market access, local presence (only for cross-border services trade), performance requirements (only for investment), and senior management and boards of directors (only for investment). The second type of non-conforming measures (Annex II) is that a Party “may maintain existing, or adopt new or more restrictive, measures that do not conform with these obligations” (Annex II Explanatory Notes).
    2. We compared the first type of Australia’s non-conforming measures under the UK-Australia FTA with those under the CPTPP. Simply looking at the number of measures listed, the number of Australia’s non-conforming measures listed under the UK-Australia FTA is more than triple times of those under the CPTPP, accounting for 47 measures versus 14 measures. This indicates that the degree of Australia’s services and investment liberalisation under the UK-Australia appears significantly less than the degree of those under the CPTPP.  Although there is an observation that many governments add non-conforming measures for transparency purposes, [10] why Australia listed more non-conforming measures under the UK-Australia FTA in comparison with the CPTPP will need further scrutiny.
    3. Second, Australia’s investment policy is more protective than its services trade policy under the UK-Australia FTA. In the UK-Australia FTA, non-conforming measures which cannot fulfil obligations for investment account for 37 cases while those for cross-border services accounts for 24 cases (note there are duplications since some measures applies to both investment and cross-border services). Under the CPTPP, the number of non-conforming measures for investment and for cross-border services is seven in each case. As noted before, Australia’s investment regime is relatively restrictive in comparison with other OECD countries, according to the OECD FDI regulatory restrictiveness index (UK government negotiating objectives, p46).
    4. As for the level of government that implements non-conforming measures in Australia, most non-conforming measures are at the regional level under the UK-Australia FTA. Among 47 measures listed, 34 measures are at the regional level and 16 measures are at the central level (note that some measures are applied both at the central and regional levels). This indicates that UK business may continue to face trade or investment barriers at the regional government level, as is currently the case. In contrast, most of the non-conforming measures under the CPTPP are at the central level, accounting for 13 measures out of 14 measures (note that one non-conforming measure is applied both at the regional and central level).
    5. Lastly, most of the non-conforming measures are sector specific. In the case of the UK-Australia FTA, 40 non-conforming measures out of 47 are sector specific. Similarly, 11 non-conforming measures out of 14 are sector specific under the CPTPP. Which sector specific measures would have negative impacts on UK business should be carefully examined.
    6. It should be noted that the number of measures does not reflect the degree of restrictiveness.  Further analysis would be need for each sector to assess the measures which are applied, what type of obligations are not fulfilled and the substance of measures to understand potential impacts on UK business.
    7. In short, our preliminary analysis indicates that the UK-Australia FTA has improved rules for services trade in comparison with those under the CPTPP in certain areas. This includes domestic regulatory disciplines regarding cross-border trade, financial services, maritime services and telecommunications. These improvements are expected to provide more legal certainty to business. The Agreement could also facilitate the UK’s accession to the CPTPP as it proves that the UK can abide by CPTPP’s services trade rules although some potential conflicts are identified in detail. The level of liberalisation commitments indicated that no gains are provided in terms of the six legal obligations relative to the CPTPP. Further analysis would be necessary to examine the impact of liberalisation commitments to business.

    Digital trade

    Negotiating objectives

    1. Shaping the rules for digital trade in a rapidly changing world: Australia has a track record of innovation on digital trade, having recently agreed the Australia-Singapore Digital Economy Agreement (DEA).12 An FTA with Australia provides the perfect opportunity to reduce barriers to e-commerce and stimulate investment in new technologies. (DIT, UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement The UK’s Strategic Approach, p7)
    1. Australia has a bilateral digital economy agreement with Singapore (Australia-Singapore DEA, hereafter DEA) DEA that underlines innovation, technology and promote free data flow. The coverage of DEA is more comprehensive and its approach is business friendly. The DEA can be seen as a more ambitious agreement in comparison with the e-commerce chapter under the CPTPP. Like the CPTPP, DEA’s approach is different from the EU approach to digital trade governance which takes into account public policy objectives to a greater extent. The UK-Australia FTA used the Australia-Singapore DEA as a template and reflected UK’s interest based on it. Although the coverage of the UK-Australia digital chapter is narrower than DEA, it covers important policy areas to promote digital trade between the two parties. Furthermore, the Agreement developed some provisions in DEA.
    2. The UK departed from the EU approach to digital trade governance in the UK-Japan CEPA. In the UK-Australia digital chapter, the UK made a further step by applying the Asia-Pacific style digital trade governance based on the DEA. What is good for business is that free cross-border data flow between the UK and Australia is ensured in accordance with the UK negotiating objectives. However, the technical and legal mechanisms to promote compatibility of different data privacy regimes are not clear. This may endanger UK citizens’ trust and the EU’s current adequacy decision to the UK.
    3. Scope: While the Australia-Singapore DEA does not set audio-visual services aside as an exception, the UK-Australia FTA does exclude audio-visual services from its scope. This follows the precedents set in the EU-UK TCA and the CEPA agreement between the UK and Japan. The reason for excluding audio-visual services ought to be clarified. We note that the CPTPP, in contrast does include audio-visual services. Also, it should be noted that there are no general exception clauses such as in the Australia-Singapore agreement (Art. 3) which takes the WTO approach (GATT XX and GATS XIV). General exceptions provide the legal base for an FTA signatory to adopt measures necessary to pursue public objectives, such as measures to protect public morals /maintain public order and human, animal or plant life/health under the certain conditions. The absence of general exception clauses suggests that the Agreement downgraded/downplayed the rights of governments to pursue public policy objectives.
    4. Core principles: As in the UK negotiating objectives, the imposition of customs duties on electronic transmissions is prohibited. The clauses are based on the DEA. The UK-Australia FTA does not include the provision of non-discriminatory treatment of digital products while DEA does (DEA, Article 6), as does the CPTPP. The UK, on the other hand, has not included non-discriminatory principle in its digital trade chapter in its previous FTAs, so the absence presumably reflects UK objectives, which align thus with those of the EU in this regard. Since non-discriminatory treatment consists of the core principle of the digital trade chapter in the CPTPP, a rational behind the UK government’s position should be clarified in relation to the CPTPP’s accession.
    5. Provisions that promote electronic authentication and electronic signatures: The approach taken by UK-Australia is basically similar to the DEA with some developments. The Agreement aims at facilitating business through digital means by including the provisions regarding conclusion of contracts by electronic means (Art. 14.5), electronic authentication and electronic trust services (Art. 14.6), paperless trading (Art. 14.8), and electronic invoicing (14.9).  In these areas the provisions appear to have achieved the negotiating objectives.
    6. Provisions regarding cross-border data in the digital networked environment:

    The provisions relating to cross-border data transfer, such as digital identities (Art. 14.7), cross-border transfer of information by electronic means (Art. 14.10), ban on data localisation (localisation of computing facilities) (Art. 14.11), and personal information protection (Art. 14.12), are based on the DEA with slight modifications in detail. It may be presumed that the UK government achieved its negotiating objectives by including these provisions that facilitate the free flow of data.

    1. Since the DEA applies the digital trade governance model that prioritises a market-led digital environment, the UK government’s policy shift from the EU style digital governance with its greater focus on public policy raises two issues. First, concerning the balance between economic objectives and public policy objectives. For example, the cross-border transfer of information by electronic means (Art. 14.10) and the ban on data localisation (Art. 14.11) are basically applying the DEA (WTO type) approach towards public policy objectives. This means that public policy space in the provisions relating to data flow provisions in the UK-Australia FTA are narrower than those in the UK-EU TCA and the UK-Japan CEPA. A wide policy discussion on whether this policy direction is good for the UK society as a whole is needed.
    2. The second issue is that the legal and practical policy mechanisms to protect personal information in Personal information protection (Art. 14.12) is not clear. The provisions slightly modified the relevant DEA provision (Art. 17.2) but do not provide clear safeguard solutions to ensure the protection of UK citizens’ data. For example, Art. 14.12. 2 only stipulates that “In the development of its legal framework for the protection of personal information, each Party shall take into account principles and guidelines of relevant international bodies, including collection limitation, data quality, purpose specification, use limitation, security safeguards, transparency, individual participation, and accountability”. While the DEA provides references to the APEC Cross-Border Privacy Rules (CBPR) System and the OECD Guidelines Governing the Protection of Privacy and Trans-border Flows of Personal Data to develop such a legal framework, the UK-Australia FTA deleted these references. Relating to this, the note for this provision (footnote 4) stipulates that “For greater certainty, a Party may comply with the obligation in this paragraph by adopting or maintaining measures such as comprehensive privacy, personal information, or personal data protection laws, sector-specific laws covering data protection or privacy, or laws that provide for the enforcement of voluntary undertakings by enterprises relating to data protection or privacy”. We note that this is just an endeavour clause rather than mandatory one. Furthermore, Art. 14.12.6, which is a copy of DEA, stipulates that “each party shall encourage the development of mechanisms to promote compatibility between the different regimes.” The way to promote compatibility is either the recognition of regulatory outcomes (accorded autonomously or by mutual arrangement) or broader international frameworks.
    3. The above indicates that the UK does not intend to use the APEC CBPR System, but is not clear from the Agreement whether the UK has established specific technical and legal mechanisms to ensure compatibility. This raises the question whether the two parties agreed legal and technical arrangements outside the FTA like in the EU-Japan’s case. [11] Since Australia does not have an adequacy decision from the EU, this may impact on the EU’s adequacy decision given to the UK.

    Environment, SPS and Animal welfare

    1. How good a deal is the UK-Australia FTA for the UK? To what extent has the Government achieved its stated negotiating objectives?
    2. To what extent has the Government achieved its stated negotiating objectives?

    Negotiating objectives:

    Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary standards:

    1. Uphold the UK’s high levels of public, animal, and plant health, including food safety.
    2. Enhance access for UK agri-food goods to the Australian market by seeking commitments to improve the timeliness and transparency of approval processes for UK goods. [12]

    Sustainability:

    1. Seek sustainability provisions, including on environment and climate change, that meet the ambition of both parties on these issues.
    2. Ensure parties reaffirm their commitment to international standards on the environment, climate change and labour.
    3. Ensure parties do not waive or fail to enforce their domestic environmental or labour protections in ways that create an artificial competitive advantage.
    4. Include measures which allow the UK to maintain the integrity, and provide meaningful protection, of the UK’s world-leading environmental and labour standards.
    5. Secure provisions that support and help further the Government’s ambition on climate change and achieving Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050. [13]

    70.   In addition to its negotiating objectives, the UK has an overarching legislative commitment to ‘maintaining statutory levels of protection in the areas of the protection of human, animal or plant life or health, animal welfare and environmental protection. [14] In respect of food standards, the Agriculture Act 2020 requires the Secretary of State to lay a report before Parliament as to how far a trade agreement is ‘consistent with the maintenance of UK levels of statutory protection in relation to human, animal or plant life or health, animal welfare and the environment.’ [15] The Government is also required to request advice from the Trade and Agriculture Commission on whether a trade agreement could result in a change to the UK’s statutory protections in relation to animal and plant health standards, animal welfare standards and environmental standards for agricultural products. [16] Notably this requirement is for ex-post scrutiny and does not include food safety.

    71.   Both the UK’s more detailed impact assessment of the Agreement [17] and the independent Sustainability Impact Assessment conducted for the EU-Australia negotiations [18], identify an intersection between trade liberalisation in the agriculture sector, specifically the beef and sheep meat sectors, and environmental protection. As the risk assessment reports set out, increased trade in these sectors may:

    1. increase Australia’s GHG and other emissions – these sectors already constitute a large share of Australia’s emissions
    2. increase land clearing – one of the most important biodiversity and climate change issues in Australia
    3. increase transport sector emissions – due to the large distance between Australia and the UK
    4. risk carbon leakage – Australia does not currently operate a carbon pricing mechanism.

    72.   The latter two points would also apply to other sectors.

    Environment (Chapter 22)

    73.   Like many trade agreements today, the Environment Chapter is wide-ranging it its coverage and includes provisions on climate change, environmental goods and services, circular economy, ozone depleting substances, air quality, ship pollution, marine litter, marine wild capture fishing, sustainable forest management, biodiversity, alien invasive species, illegal wildlife trade, corporate social responsibility. Echoing the CPTPP (CPTPP, Art 20.3), the FTA includes obligations to uphold ‘high’ and improving levels of protection and prohibits Parties from failing to effectively enforce domestic environmental law in a manner affecting trade or investment between them (non-regression/non-derogation). Each Party affirms its commitment to implement the the international environmental agreements to which they are party (Art 22.4.1) and ’emphasises the need to enhance the mutual supportiveness between trade and environmental law and policies’ (Art 22.4.2).

    74.   With some differences in wording, most commitments are aspirational, the focus being on cooperation (See Table 1). Notably, there are stronger commitments to taking measures to control ozone depleting substances (Art 22.8), prevent ship pollution (Art 22.10) and establish a fisheries management system to regulate marine wild capture fishing (Art 22.12). Provision for ‘cooperation frameworks’ is foreseen in relation to certain areas only, including climate change, circular economy, ozone protection, air quality, ship pollution and biodiversity. For each area, a non-binding and non-exhaustive list of potential areas for cooperation is given. It is unclear how cooperation will take place: commitments are vague, no specific mechanisms are provided for, public participation is not mandatory, and implementation is subject to the availability of funds (Art 22.20). The effectiveness of these Cooperation Frameworks will therefore be borne out in their implementation.

    75.   An Environmental Working Group is foreseen to oversee implementation of this Chapter and to coordinate with other committees (Art 22.21). A bespoke dispute mechanism for this Chapter comprises Environment Consultations, Joint Committee Consultations and Ministerial Consultations (Arts 22.23-22.26). Should Parties fail to resolve a matter under these mechanisms, the requesting party may request consultations (Art 30.7) or a panel (Art 30.8) under the main dispute mechanism.

    SPS measures (Chapter 5) and Animal welfare (Chapter 25)

    76.   Food standards are a significant political issue in the UK. [19] The Agreement provides for tariff-free imports of Australian agricultural products to be phased in over a number of years; beef quotas, for example, are applied for the first 15 years and are much higher than current import levels.

    77.   Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) objectives here aim to protect human, animal and plant life and health in respective territories while facilitating trade, ensure SPS measures do not create unjustified barriers to trade, reinforce and build on the implementation of the SPS Agreement and promote greater transparency in this area (Art 6.2). The Parties affirm their rights and obligations under the SPS Agreement (Art 6.4). SPS measures are to be based on ‘scientific principles’ and ‘risk assessment in accordance with Article 5 and other relevant provisions of the SPS Agreement, taking into account risk assessment techniques developed by the relevant international organisations’ (Art 6.5). This contrasts to the CPTPP, which requires that measures are based on ‘objective scientific evidence that is rationally related to the measures.’ [20] Thus there is no explicit reference to the more restrictive precautionary approach to SPS measures currently applied by the UK, only to the more limited WTO version of the principle.

    78.   The EU-UK trade agreement did not provide for a mechanism assessing equivalence of agricultural product or process standards. Here there is provision for the recognition of equivalence of SPS measures (Art 6.7). Each Party, in determining equivalence ‘shall consider the relevant international standards, guidelines and recommendations’ and the exporting Party ‘shall objectively demonstrate that its measures achieve the appropriate level of protection.’ The final determination of equivalence rests with the importing Party and Parties may consider establishing a procedure for the recognition of equivalence. WTO rules allow for state discretion to meet human, animal and plant life and health objectives, such exceptions are not provided for in the Agreement text but are noted in the explanatory memorandum.

    79.   This Chapter establishes a Committee on SPS Measures, composed of government representatives, to monitor implementation, deal with SPS issues and recommend mutually agreed proposals for amendments to this Chapter to the Joint Committee; a Party may refer any SPS issue to the SPS Committee (Art 6.6). Dispute settlement does not apply to this Chapter (Art 6.18). This suggests a generally low level of priority given to the chapter. It contrasts with the application of CPTPP dispute settlement to its SPS chapter, although the provision for objective and rational scientific assessment is excluded (CPTPP, Art 7.18).

    80.   This is the first time an Australian trade agreement has a separate animal welfare chapter; a chapter on animal welfare is not included in CPTPP. It is recognised that ‘animals are sentient beings’ and there is a ‘connection between improved welfare of farmed animals and sustainable food production systems’ (Art 25.1). A non-regression clause on animal welfare standards is provided for via a recognition that Parties will endeavour to ensure high levels of animal welfare protection, and uphold existing domestic protections. The Parties’ right to regulate is preserved.

    81.   A Joint Working Group on Animal Welfare is established (Art 25.2) and the Committee on Cooperation shall consider issues arising relating to the Animal Welfare Chapter (Art 27.4). This Committee is composed of government representatives and will review and monitor the implementation of the areas of cooperation provided for in the Agreement, specifically in relation to the environment and antimicrobial resistance, inter alia (Art 27.2). The Committee shall facilitate information exchange and invite contributions from experts, stakeholders, non-governmental organisations or civil society ‘as appropriate’ (Art 27.2). The Committee may make recommendations or refer matters to the Joint Committee, but the dispute settlement provisions are not applicable to matters arising under this Chapter (Art 27.6). As such, the effectiveness of cooperation mechanisms will be borne out in practice.

    1. What lessons and inferences for other current and future negotiations can be drawn from how the Government approached, and what it secured in, the FTA with Australia?

    82.   While the role of trade in enhancing international cooperation is well recognised, levels of environmental protection, animal welfare and food standards would arguably be better implemented via more binding, specific and enforceable provisions in trade agreements. For example, ambition to strengthen standards of environmental protection, animal welfare and food standards could be included as overarching principles in the preamble in future UK trade agreements. Clearer provision for how far standards should be maintained, harmonised or strengthened for specific areas would provide clarity on ambition. Commitments to implementation of domestic and international environmental targets and food standards could be strengthened by more binding language, tariff conditionality for certain products, procedural guarantees and adequate institutional support for cooperation. Mechanisms for dispute settlement and non-compliance should provide opportunity for public consultation and public complaints mechanisms.

    Appendices

    Table 1: Results from DIT’s estimates:

    Results by Sector, % change GVA Scoping Assessment Impact Assessment
    Agriculture Below -0.05% (-) -0.70%
    Bev and tobacco products 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.10%
    Processed foods 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.14%
    Semi-processed foods Below -0.05% (-) -2.65%
    Chemical, rubber, plastic products 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.16%
    Electronic equipment 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.04%
    Energy 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.40%
    Manufactures of materials 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.23%
    Motor vehicles and parts 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 1.16%
    Other machinery and equipment 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.59%
    Other Manufacturing 0.05 to <0.5% (+) -0.03%
    Other transport equipment 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.20%
    Paper and printing products 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.20%
    Textiles, leather and wearing apparel 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.19%
    Business services 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.07%
    Communications 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.07%
    Construction 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.12%
    Financial services 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.06%
    Insurance 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.07%
    Other services (transport, water, dwellings) 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.08%
    Personal services 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.09%
    Public services 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.08%
    Wholesale and retail trade 0.05 to <0.5% (+) 0.12%

    Table 2: UKTPO simulated impacts:

    UK Top and bottom 10 sectors by simulated output changes (%)

    Top 10
    ISIC4 Code ISIC4 Name %
    2431 Casting of iron and steel 0.85
    2732-2733 Manuf. of other electronic 0.75
    2740 Manuf. of electric lighting equipment 0.41
    33 Air transport 0.40
    2394 Manuf. of cement, lime and plaster 0.40
    1101 Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits 0.39
    2399 Manuf. of other non-metallic mineral products n.e.c. 0.37
    1394 Manuf. of cordage, rope, twine and netting 0.36
    3212 Manuf. of imitation jewellery and related articles 0.36
    2816-2817 Manuf. of lifting and handling equipment 0.33
    Bottom 10
    ISIC4 Code ISIC4 Name %
    1102 Manuf. of wines -0.66
    1010 Processing and preserving of meat -0.45
    2012 Manuf. of fertilizers and nitrogen compounds -0.05
    3091 Manuf. of motorcycles -0.04
    31 Land transport and transport via pipelines -0.02
    3011-3030 Building of ships, locomotives and aircrafts -0.02
    2660-2670 Manufacture of electromedical eq. & optical instruments -0.01
    2811 Manuf. of engines and turbines -0.01
    2610-2620 Manuf. of electronic components 0.00
    3250 Manuf. of medical and dental instruments and supplies 0.00

    January 2022


    [2] Source, ONS Pink Book, 2021.

    [3] Details of the changes introduced by DIT can be found in Annex 1 of the impact assessment, p.59.

    [4] UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement: The UK’s Strategic Approach

    [5] ONS, Pink Book, 2021

    [6] DIT, UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement: The UK’s Strategic Approach (2019), p44.

    [7] Morita-Jaeger, M. and Winters, L.A. (2018). The UK’s future services trade deals with non-EU countries: A reality check: BP24-print-interactive.pdf (sussex.ac.uk)

    [8] By types of measure, measures relating screening and approval are major type of restrictions in Australia.

    [9] The text negotiations were concluded on 2nd December 2021. The text is available: directdoc.aspx (wto.org)

    [10] Adlung R. and Mamdouh, H. (2014). How to Design Trade Agreements in Services: Top Down or Bottom-Up?, Journal of World Trade, Vol. 28 (2). Pp. 191-218.

    [11] At the time of the EU-Japan EPA, Japan made a supplementary domestic law for private data comes from the EU (see detail in The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: Lessons for the UK’s future trade agreements « UK Trade Policy Observatory (sussex.ac.uk)).

    [12] DIT, UK-Australia Free Trade Agreement: The UK’s Strategic Approach (2019), p9.

    [13] Ibid, p12.

    [14] As well as employment and labour, data protection and the protection of children and vulnerable adults online. Trade Act 2021, s 2.

    [15] Agriculture Act 2020, s 42. This section does not apply to trade agreements with EU states, those negotiated before ‘EU exit day’ and where negotiations are concluded by 31 December 2022.

    [16] Agriculture Act 2020, s 42 (as amended by the Trade Act 2021, s 9).

    [17] DIT, Impact assessment of the Free Trade Agreement between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Australia (Dec 2021), p47.

    [18] European Commission, Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of FTA negotiations between the European Union and Australia (Mar 2020), p89.

    [19] D Webb, UK-Australia free trade agreement (Commons Library Briefing Paper No 9204, Dec 2021).

    [20] “Each Party shall ensure that its sanitary and phytosanitary measures either conform to the relevant international standards, guidelines or recommendations or, if its sanitary and phytosanitary measures do not conform to international standards, guidelines or recommendations, that they are based on documented and objective scientific evidence that is rationally related to the measures, while recognising the Parties’ obligations regarding assessment of risk under Article 5 of the SPS Agreement.” CPTPP, Art 7.9.2.

  • Scottish Government – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    Scottish Government – 2022 Comments on the Australia Trade Bill

    The comments made by Scottish Government on 17 January 2022.

    UK-Australia Trade Agreement

    I am writing in response to the International Trade Committee’s Call for Evidence as part of its scrutiny of the UK-Australia trade agreement, which was signed on 16 December 2021. It is vital that the outcome of the deal reflects the interests and priorities of all four nations so I am keen that the Committee is aware of the Scottish Government’s engagement in this process and our views on how this agreement will affect people and businesses across Scotland.

    Engagement

    1. As with other trade agreement negotiations, the involvement of devolved administrations has been limited. Scottish Government officials have been in contact with officials from the UK Department for International Trade (DIT) throughout the process to represent Scotland’s interests, priorities and concerns, and have articulated these through detailed written comments. However information sharing has been constrained and we have only seen sections of the draft mandate, or draft chapter text prior to agreement, in areas that DIT consider relevant to devolved competence.
    2. Scottish Government officials received regular briefings from DIT on the progress of negotiations, which were useful. However, as I have made clear to the UK Government, information is not the same as involvement, and we had no say in the decisions taken by the UK Government throughout the negotiations and saw no detail on key parts of the agreement, such as tariffs and tariff rate quotas (TRQs), until after they were agreed. Nor were we given the underpinning analysis or rationale behind the decisions.
    3. I have frequently made the case to the UK Government that reserved matters such as tariffs impact on devolved responsibilities, such as agriculture, and the Scottish Government will continue to argue we should have meaningful engagement in these areas to ensure that Scotland’s interests are taken into account.

    Agri-food imports

    1. You ask about the likely impact of the deal on various sectors of the economy. I wrote to the UK Minister for Trade Policy, Rt Hon Penny Mordaunt MP, in December to express our concerns at the agreement and in particular, the implications of this agreement on farming communities in Scotland. The significant level of market access that it provides for beef and sheepmeat imports is a particular concern. The year 1 tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef imports is 35,000 metric tonnes, which is seven-times the current level of Australian beef imports to the UK, and this rises to 110,000 metric tonnes by year 10. This significant increase in quota volumes is exacerbated by the fact that quotas will be based on product weight which makes it more advantageous to Australian producers, who can increase imports of premium cuts that will receive a higher price than lower end cuts of a similar weight, with no added effect on TRQ utilisation. High value cuts are where Scottish farmers derive most value, so a potential increase in imports is a concern for Scottish industry. Beyond year 15, Australian agri-food exporters will enjoy unfettered access to the Scottish agriculture market.
    2. We were concerned that the original scoping assessment showed the agriculture and semiprocessed foods sectors as losing out as a result of an FTA with Australia. Now we have seen the final impact assessment, this has been confirmed.

    Animal welfare and antimicrobial resistance (AMR)

    1. We have consistently called for imports of Australian agri-food to be produced to the same animal welfare and environmental standards that Scottish producers are required to meet. Whilst the agreement contains a non-regression clause on animal welfare, we are not reassured that this will protect Scottish and UK farmers as Australian animal welfare standards are already lower. The World Animal Protection Index1 ranks Australia as D for animal welfare, while the UK is ranked B, and the RSPCA2 has highlighted a number of welfare practices in use in Australia, which are illegal in the UK, such as the use of barren battery cages for poultry, sow stalls, hot branding of cattle, and mulesing of sheep (with anaesthetic only required in the state of Victoria). This means Scottish farmers, crofters and food producers will not be competing on a level playing field with their Australian competitors.
    2. While we note that the agreement contains provisions on tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR), the detailed provisions do not go as far as we would have liked and represent a missed opportunity to have a meaningful impact on this significant threat to global health.

    Goods exports

    1. We recognise that the agreement removes the vast majority of tariffs on UK exports to Australia, and we expect this will benefit exporters, such as the whisky industry. It will be 1 World Animal Protection | Animal Protection Index 2 Protect UK farm animal welfare standards | RSPCA Scottish Ministers, special advisers and the Permanent Secretary are covered by the terms of the Lobbying (Scotland) Act 2016. See www.lobbying.scot St Andrew’s House, Regent Road, Edinburgh EH1 3DG www.gov.scot important to ensure that Scottish companies can take full advantage of new opportunities that arise from this agreement. In addition to tariff reduction, the issue of an enforceable definition for Scotch whisky in Australia is important to the whisky industry in Scotland, so it is unfortunate that the UK Government was not able to secure a commitment within this agreement.

    Services exports

    1. We are keen for Scottish companies to be able to take advantage of the provisions in this agreement on trade in services, business mobility and government procurement. While these are likely to have benefits for companies trading with Australia, it remains the case that the size of the Australian market and geographical distance are likely to be limiting factors. These measures will not compensate for the loss of market access that Scottish companies have faced as a result of leaving the EU.

    Environment

    1. The Scottish Government already has an ambitious target to meet net-zero by 2045 and Scotland’s Vision for Trade makes clear that trade must support this goal. It is concerning that the UK Government’s impact assessment points to a significant increase, of between 31 and 40%, in transport-related greenhouse gas emissions as a result of this deal. While it is welcome that there is a reference to the Paris Agreement in the environment chapter, we would have preferred binding commitments to comply with the Agreement and to take action to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees.

    Impact Assessments

    1. It was helpful to see the final impact assessment, however it would have been useful to see interim analysis before the agreement was finalised. We also believe it is vital that the UK Government undertake more detailed sustainability impact assessments, including more detailed analysis of the impact on the different nations of the UK and on different groups within society. The impact assessment shows a small increase in UK GDP over the long run of 0.08%, but this will not compensate for the 4% decline in UK GDP, which Office for Budget Responsibility analysis suggests will result from leaving the EU.
    2. It is unfortunate that the focus on long run impacts means that we have no analysis of the short and medium term impacts of this deal. The Scottish Government would be keen to know what measures of support the UK Government will make available to Scottish sectors and producers adversely impacted by the deal.
    3. I hope these comments are helpful to the Committee’s consideration of the agreement and I would be happy to answer any further questions the Committee may have arising from these.