Category: Scotland

Ian Murray – 2022 Speech on Scottish Independence and the Scottish Economy

The speech made by Ian Murray, the Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, in the House of Commons on 2 November 2022.

I congratulate the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) and the SNP on bringing this debate to the Chamber. I also pass on my thoughts and best wishes to the hon. Member for Glenrothes (Peter Grant), who signed the motion. He is not with us today because he has lost his father, so our best wishes go to him. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”]

When I learned of and read the motion, I got quite excited, because I thought that I might finally agree with one of my SNP colleagues’ motions. It starts off, rightly, by highlighting the disastrous impacts of this Tory-created economic crisis, but I am sorry to say that it ends in a rather familiar way, with their one-size-fits-all and only answer to any question: independence. I will come to that later, but let me go through the first part of the motion.

To start with the Secretary of State’s contribution, I did not hear an apology for what the Government have just done to the UK economy. The Conservatives once claimed to be the party of economic competence, but they have now created absolute chaos. Let there be no doubt that the Conservatives have crashed the British economy. Their now junked mini-Budget—well, partially junked, because they have kept the scrapping of bankers’ bonuses—which was mini only in its connection with reality, has exacerbated an already burgeoning crisis. That crisis was born from catastrophic decisions made over the past 12 years, including when the current PM was Chancellor.

As the motion outlines, the pound is at a record low, mortgage rates are through the roof and inflation continues to spiral out of control. I know that for many on the Conservative Benches, those are just indicators—numbers on a screen—but they show an economy tanking as a result of their incompetence. This is not just about numbers; it is about the quality of life of millions of people up and down the country. It is about the unimaginable stress caused to families, who were already stumped by how they would make ends meet. They find their mortgage rates shooting up and energy prices rocketing, and they are staring at their supermarket receipts, wondering at how few items they got for such a high cost.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

The hon. Member makes some great points about the catastrophe we are involved in due to being in the UK. On that basis, would he prefer an independent Scotland with a Labour or an SNP Government, or a Scotland inside the UK with a Tory Government? Which is it?

Ian Murray

I prefer Scotland in the UK with a Labour Government. What an absolutely ridiculous and pointless intervention from a ridiculous and pointless Member of Parliament. [Interruption.] Is that unparliamentary, Mr Deputy Speaker? Okay, I apologise. [Interruption.] I just said I apologise.

A family came to my surgery last week to say that their fixed-rate mortgage of 1.79% was expiring. Given the increases in interest rates, they were expecting to pay and had budgeted for 3.5%, but they were quoted more than 6.5% and they simply cannot afford it. What was it all for? To give unfunded tax cuts to the richest. Make no mistake: the Tories crashed the economy from Downing Street and it will be paid for by ordinary people, either through their pay packets or through austerity.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. When we ask a question of a colleague in Parliament who finds it difficult to understand, is it in order that he responds with insults?

Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)

The hon. Member did apologise immediately, Mr MacNeil. I think you should accept that with good grace.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

I did not hear it. Thank you.

Ian Murray

I did apologise, Mr Deputy Speaker, and I do so again.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

Accepted.

Ian Murray

I am glad that the hon. Member has accepted it, from whichever seat he is now sitting in.

As I was saying, what has happened will be paid for by ordinary people either through their pay packets or through austerity, because the Government U-turns and change of Prime Minister cannot undo what has been done to Britain’s reputation. Our institutions have been undermined, our standing on the world stage has been diminished, and our credibility as a place to invest has been damaged. The devastation will last for years, maybe decades. As the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber said in his opening speech—I will quote him as accurately as I can—that comes with “massive, massive costs”. But one of the other massive costs would be the break-up of the United Kingdom, because there is no doubt that this Conservative Government are as big a threat to the Union as any nationalist sitting by my side here.

Who have the Conservative party turned to to put out the fire? The arsonist himself. Let us not forget that even before this abject disaster, the now Prime Minister, as Chancellor, delivered the highest tax burden on working people in 70 years, the highest inflation in 40 years and the highest of any G7 country, the largest fall in living standards since records began in the 1970s, continued low growth and stagnant wages.

We have a Prime Minister who increased the tax for everyone else while he did not think his family should pay it; a Prime Minister who, while every single person in this country suffered under lockdown, was fined for partying in Downing Street; a Prime Minister who left a loophole in the windfall tax so that billions of pounds that could have been put into public services to help people with their energy bills were left on the table; a Prime Minister who lost tens of billions of pounds to covid fraud and shrugged his shoulders; a Prime Minister who was so weak in dealing with the cost of living crisis that he thought that the best and only response was to increase everyone’s national insurance; a Prime Minister who was, as a Member of Parliament, more of a US resident than a UK citizen; a Prime Minister who always puts his party first and the country second; and a Prime Minister without a mandate to govern. As the Leader of the Opposition so aptly put it, in the only competitive election in which the Prime Minister has stood, he was trounced by someone who was in turn beaten by a lettuce.

Alan Brown

The hon. Member is making our case for us, given the shambles of a Government that he is talking about. Does that mean that he will go back on his vow to do better together again and that Labour will not stand shoulder to shoulder with the Tories? Will he also call out Labour councils for working in coalition with the Tories, including in Edinburgh?

Ian Murray

Let me put it firmly on the record that there is not a coalition in Scotland between Labour and the Conservatives. In the Edinburgh example that the hon. Member talks about, which I know very well because it is my city, the Conservatives are an official opposition party. What SNP Members do not like is that they could not get their leader in as leader of the council.

Let me say to the hon. Member and to SNP voters that the best way to resolve the crisis at the UK level and to stop Scotland being ripped out of the United Kingdom against the will of the Scottish people is to vote Labour in Scottish constituencies at the next general election and have us replace the Government, rather than just shouting at them from the Opposition Benches.

Martin Docherty-Hughes (West Dunbartonshire) (SNP)

Will the hon. Member give way?

Ian Murray

I will make some progress because I am attacking the Conservative party and I think the hon. Member might like that.

If the Government had any shred of decency left, they would call this ridiculous circus to an end and give the British people a choice at a general election. The choice is between the people who caused it in the first place, and a credible Labour party, led by my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer), ready to give this country a fresh start. The reason that SNP Members do not want a UK Labour Government is that they know it shoots their independence goose. The UK Government’s reticence to offer such a choice at a general election shows what they think the outcome would be. They are an out-of-touch Government with no plan, no mandate and absolutely no idea of what misery they have inflicted on working people in Scotland and all over the UK.

Ms Anum Qaisar (Airdrie and Shotts) (SNP)

The hon. Member made an interesting point about the SNP not wanting a Labour Government. I joined the SNP a week after the referendum. One reason that tipped me over was that I remember, back in 2014, Labour joining hand in hand with the Tories to vote for air strikes while SNP MPs voted against them. I urge caution, because the fact is that the Labour party does not stand up for the people of Scotland.

Ian Murray

My recollection may be incorrect, but I am not sure we did in that instance.

This entire motion is predicated on the fact that we have a rotten, out-of-touch Conservative Government—and we do—and my contention is that the best way to resolve that is for Scottish voters to deliver Scottish Labour MPs so that we can become the UK Government in place of the Conservatives. The alternative is Members sitting on these Opposition Benches moaning about the situation rather than trying to change it.

Dave Doogan

I thank the shadow Secretary of State for giving way; he is very kind. He has given an excellent list of reasons why Scotland should not endure a UK Administration, but let me try to get him to focus on a particular point. We have heard a lot from the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Mr Perkins) in this debate. The shadow Secretary of State’s bairns in Edinburgh South are much better looked after by an SNP Scottish Government in Scotland than the bairns of the hon. Member for Chesterfield are looked after here. What does the shadow Secretary of State think about that? What does the Union mean to bairns in poverty in Chesterfield compared with those in Edinburgh South?

Ian Murray

The hon. Gentleman gets the phrasing of his question wrong. He says that we do not want to endure a UK Administration in Scotland. No: we do not want to endure a Tory UK Administration in Scotland. Perhaps SNP Members do, because it suits their cause.

The hon. Gentleman talks about child poverty. When Labour was in power from 1997 to 2010, we lifted millions of children out of poverty. All of that has been reversed in the past 12 or 13 years because of decisions made by the UK Government and the Scottish Government. And do not dare talk about children in my constituency when educational standards are going down the pan, nobody can get a GP appointment and inequalities are rising. Rising inequalities are the responsibility of both Governments in Scotland: the Scottish Government and the UK Government.

Sarah Owen (Luton North) (Lab)

SNP Members talk about children in poverty. Of course nobody wants to see children in poverty, so does the shadow Secretary of State agree that it is utterly shameful that one in four children under the SNP’s control are now growing up in poverty, and the numbers are increasing?

Ian Murray

I agree. I will be happy to correct the record if I am wrong, but I think the highest poverty rates among children in Scotland are in the First Minister’s constituency, Glasgow Southside. If its rate is not the highest, it is certainly very close to the top.

David Linden (Glasgow East) (SNP)

Will the shadow Secretary of State give way?

Ian Murray

I am happy to give way. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman will tell us about the poverty rates in Glasgow.

David Linden

The poverty rates in Glasgow are far too high, but that is because of the Tory Government who are controlling the economy: 85% of welfare spending is controlled by this place.

The shadow Secretary of State talks about the turgid record of the Conservative party. As we approach a general election, people will want to see the big difference that Scottish Labour MPs would make. What would be the biggest difference in immigration policy and Brexit policy, for example?

Ian Murray

The big difference will be having a stable economy. The big difference will be growth. The big difference will be a laser-like focus on child poverty. The big difference will be trade. The big difference will be making this country work. The big difference will be repairing our relationship internationally, including with our EU partners. Those are the big differences. We will have a constitutional settlement fit for the 2020s, instead of ripping Scotland out of the United Kingdom with all the problems that that may cause.

If my attack on the Conservative party has upset SNP Members, wait until they hear the next few pages of my speech. While I am speaking of having no plan, let me turn to the second part of the SNP’s motion, which I certainly disagree with: the prospectus for independence. The much-anticipated paper appeared a few Mondays ago, after years or even decades of no credible economic answers from the yes movement. Unfortunately, even with all these papers, the wait continues.

Let me turn to a few of the big themes. They may seem a little like déjà vu in this House, but we still have no answers. The first, and probably the most obvious and important, is currency. SNP Members have had more views on the currency of an independent Scotland than I have had fish suppers—and I can tell you I have had a few, Mr Deputy Speaker. Their latest wheeze was revealed last week. Immediately after having voted to leave the United Kingdom—in their hypothetical scenario—an independent Scotland would take back control with a radically different economic approach and keep the pound. So the Bank of England and the UK Treasury would still set the fiscal rules; all that would change is that we would have no say whatever over them.

The economic levers that SNP Members continually bleat about would be left in Westminster. Would that just be temporary, though? They say yes, because they would introduce a separate Scottish currency, the Scottish pound. We might ask how long that would take, but they do not tell us. At first, people would pay their mortgage in the same currency in which they borrowed it, but at some point during the lifetime of their mortgage, the currency would probably switch to one that does not currently exist. One thing I know from discussions with my own mortgage provider is that if people borrow in pounds, they will pay back in pounds, regardless of the value of any new currency.

The SNP chair of the Sustainable Growth Commission—a commission that has now been junked and barely mentioned—has said:

“The risk would be that the currency would come into being and then quickly devalue…That would have an effect on people’s income”.

Just listen to that sentence. After the mini-Budget, we know all too well what happens when a currency devalues so quickly. According to the eminent economist Professor MacDonald of Glasgow University, that devaluation could be as much as 30% on day one. That is a 30% reduction in income overnight, but everyone’s borrowing would stay in pounds.

If SNP Members will not listen to economists or experts, perhaps they will listen to someone they know better: the First Minister herself, who said that using the pound is in the long-term interests of Scotland. She said that for years. It has now been junked.

A new country and a new currency would also mean a central bank, but not one like any other central bank that exists in the economies of the world. At first, for an indeterminate period, it would be a central bank operating with another country’s currency. The First Minister claimed at the launch and the press conference that the central bank would be a lender of last resort and would stand by things like the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which guarantees up to £85,000 in someone’s bank account if a bank goes into liquidation or disappears. So we would have a central bank as a lender of last resort, standing by things like the Financial Services Compensation Scheme in someone else’s currency, but with absolutely no control over monetary policy.

The Scottish Government paper says that a greater emphasis would be placed on fiscal policy to ensure the strength of the economy. Surely that is shorthand for greater austerity. I will come back to that issue later.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Murray

Let me just finish this point, because it is really important and perhaps the hon. Gentleman will be able to answer it. According to the paper, when the new currency is established after an indeterminate period, the planned reserves will total just $14 billion—a fraction of what similar small nations require. In the Scottish Government’s first paper, they drew comparisons with lots of other small European countries, so let us compare some currency reserves. Denmark’s currency reserve is equivalent to $82 billion, Norway’s to $84 billion and Sweden’s to $62 billion, and those are all established currencies with a track record and a borrowing record. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman can tell us how that makes the case for borrowing to create massive reserves.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

The hon. Gentleman has just pointed out the reserves of independent countries, so he can obviously tell us the reserves of Scotland, if it is doing so well in the Union. If Scotland becomes independent, will Labour Members come forward with policies, or will they pretend they are like the Tories and refuse to play? Will he try to get into the House of Lords, or will he want to be a politician in Scotland after independence? What is his position? Under devolution, five parties come forward and present their views to the public. I imagine that that will be the same after independence—or are Labour and the Tories saying, “We’re taking our ball home—we can’t play any more”?

Ian Murray

Mr Deputy Speaker, honestly! We want a sensible debate, but according to the hon. Gentleman I am taking my ball home and going to the House of Lords. I suspect that the reason he is so animated is that his seat might become a Labour seat at the next general election. Let me tell him my prospectus for Scotland: my prospectus is that Scotland stays in the United Kingdom with a UK Labour Government. That is my policy. He seems to forget that this is his motion, not mine: I am replying to an SNP Opposition day debate on a motion tabled by SNP Members in their own terms.

I was talking about the reserves of other countries. The SNP’s approach to creating Scotland’s reserves, which would be a fraction of those of other countries, is to borrow. The SNP’s proposition for independence is to continue to use the pound while setting up its own central bank, being a Scottish lender of last resort and borrowing tens of billions of pounds to create reserves for a new currency. The very foundation of the new state would be built on unfunded, unforecasted borrowing. It is like someone trying to build up their savings by using a credit card. We know it is bonkers, because the UK Government have just demonstrated how bonkers it is, and SNP Members know it.

Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)

I congratulate the shadow Secretary of State on demolishing the case for independence. Mind you, a feather could probably knock that case over; it does not need a wrecking ball.

The shadow Secretary of State is talking about the economic disaster that would come after independence. Does he accept that as part of the United Kingdom, even with the largesse that comes from Westminster, the Scottish Government have still failed to raise education standards, to have effective policing or to deal with the drugs crisis in Scotland? Indeed, they already have the lowest rate of economic growth.

Ian Murray

I agree with the right hon. Gentleman up to a point, but I wish he would not refer to the UK Government’s largesse or Westminster’s largesse. It is this Conservative Government’s largesse, and if we want to turn the UK around and keep the UK together, we have to replace this rotten lot with a UK Labour Government.

The right hon. Gentleman is right, however: the list of failures of Scottish Government policy is the length of your arm, and I would be here until 7 o’clock this evening if I went through them all. That includes the failures in my own constituency, where it is impossible to get a GP appointment. The Health Secretary tells me there is no problem, although NHS Lothian has said that health services and GP services in my constituency are failing—and I quote that directly from one of its reports.

Let me now turn to the subject of the European Union, because we have heard a lot about that. I remind the House—including my hon. Friend the Member for Chesterfield, who made some great points about the EU—that when the Division bell rang on our efforts to find a way through a deal with the European Union, we would have won on the customs union had the SNP not abstained. And let us not forget that when the Division bell rang on 12 December, after the general election, when the offer on the trade and co-operation agreement was “take it or leave it”, SNP Members voted for no deal. That is their record here: they talk a good game, but they do not deliver when they should be delivering.

Much like the experience of some Conservative Members in recent years, the response from Brussels has not fitted the preconceived fantasy. At the aforementioned press conference, the First Minister rejected the idea that Scotland would join the euro, saying it was

“not the right option for Scotland”.

Nonetheless, she added, Scotland would have no problem with joining the European Union. That is awkward, is it not, because the EU does not seem to agree. The law does not seem to agree. Officials have insisted, and the treaties state, that any country wishing to join the EU would legally have to commit to the euro. I wonder whether any SNP Members can shed any light on the Scottish Government’s position—but let me answer my own question, because I am more likely to get the answer than I would be if the SNP answered it.

The paper says that an independent Scotland would use the pound for an undetermined period, then borrow tens of billions—which may be an inadequate amount—to support a new currency, only to have to legally commit to joining the euro at some point in the future. The SNP has more currency positions in this paper than we have had Prime Ministers since the summer. If the mini-Budget has demonstrated anything, it is that the markets take a dim view of fantasy economics. What an economic catastrophe for Scottish people’s mortgages, borrowing, pensions and wages!

Before SNP Members start jumping up and down, as they have already, saying that some EU countries do not use the euro, let me repeat that every new member of the European Union must legally commit to joining the euro. That is written in an international treaty, which is international law. But here comes the conundrum for the SNP. The paper that has been presented by the First Minister does several things; are she and the SNP saying (a) that they are not willing to abide by the EU rules on the euro? They have already said that they would not join the exchange rate mechanism. They would play their games: they would say they would do it, and would not. Is that the policy, or is it (b)? If it is not joining the euro, they are essentially saying that a separate Scotland would sit outside the rest of the UK and the EU with a different currency.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

Got it in one.

Ian Murray

That position is surely not in the best interests of Scotland—but I hear someone shout, from a sedentary position, “Got it in one.” So SNP Members want to create a border with our biggest trading partner, and to create a currency border with what they say will become their biggest trading partner, and Scotland will be sitting with a separate currency, a different currency, outwith both. What they are doing—and this is key to the whole argument—is cherry-picking EU rules, which sounds more like Farage “cakeism” than a credible proposition for any country. They want to take all the good things but none of the bad, and they have no way of squaring that circle.

Mr Perkins

My hon. Friend is making a magnificent case. [Laughter.] SNP Members may well laugh. They appear to be so much more in touch with the view of the Scottish people, or so they tell us. Perhaps they can explain why only one of the last 19 opinion polls on Scottish independence showed the people of Scotland to be in favour of independence. The points that my hon. Friend is making demonstrate the reason: the inoperable difficulties of Scottish independence. That is why the people of Scotland not only voted against independence in 2014, but continue, in response to opinion polls, to say that they want to remain a part of the UK.

Ian Murray

My hon. Friend is right. SNP Members always cite opinion polls when they are in their favour, but they never cite them when they are not in their favour.

What I would say, in all sincerity, to those who support independence in Scotland is “Look at the proposition that is in front of you.” The best way to resolve this is not to take Scotland out of the UK and do Brexit on stilts—Scexit, if you like—but to vote Labour, deliver a UK Labour Government, and allow us to prove that Britain is a place that Scotland would want to be a part of.

Martin Docherty-Hughes

I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on his speech. May I introduce a constitutional element? The hon. Gentleman’s own party, when in government, fully supported the constitutional position of the people of Northern Ireland on whether to remain in the Union—as I know some of our friends and colleagues here wish to do—or to become once again a part of the Irish Republic. They believe that that position should be allowed if a unification referendum happens every seven years, I think; Members will need to correct me if I am wrong. The hon. Gentleman’s party therefore believes in the inalienable right of the people of Northern Ireland to determine their own governance and destiny. Does he believe that Scotland has the same right?

Ian Murray

I have a lot of respect for the hon. Gentleman—I genuinely have, and I say that with all sincerity—but I believe that comparisons between Scotland and Northern Ireland are not only unhelpful but, to some, offensive. The purpose of the Good Friday agreement is to create peace on the island of Ireland, and I think that trying to superimpose the Good Friday agreement on the issue of Scottish independence will be seen as it should be seen, as unhelpful and historically inaccurate. [Interruption.] All the SNP Members are shouting, but one of the Labour party’s proudest achievements in office was peace in Northern Ireland. If they think that the Labour party’s position is inconsistent with a position of wanting to keep the UK together, they are simply incorrect. We on the Labour Benches will do nothing—absolutely nothing—to undermine the Good Friday agreement.

As an adjunct and a footnote to that, what SNP Members are proposing in their proposition for an independent Scotland will create the same problems at the border at Berwick as we have in Northern Ireland with the Northern Ireland protocol, and they know that to be the case.

Joanna Cherry (Edinburgh South West) (SNP) rose—

Neale Hanvey rose—

Ian Murray

Let me make some progress. The time that I am taking is making you agitated, Mr Deputy Speaker.

Kirsty Blackman (Aberdeen North) (SNP)

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Murray

I would prefer the hon. Lady to tell us about the SNP’s proposals rather than talking about the Labour party, but I am happy to give way if the SNP wants to continue this nonsense and charade.

Kirsty Blackman

The shadow Secretary of State is making the case, as a Labour politician would, for why Labour should be in charge. For two thirds of my lifetime we have had a Conservative Government for which Scotland has not voted. How does the hon. Gentleman expect the next 36 years to be any different from the past 36?

Ian Murray

As for the other third of the hon. Lady’s life, the UK Labour Government transformed it. That is why we want to create a UK Labour Government who can do things for the whole United Kingdom.

Several hon. Members rose—

Ian Murray

I will come back to hon. Members—I promise I will come back—but let me just make some progress.

All this brings us to deficit and debt, which is the great elephant in the room when it comes to independence. Let us talk about what independence would cost, and the scale of public service cuts that would be required. Very helpfully, These Islands—an organisation that believes that Scotland should stay in the UK—made the following comment, which I thought was quite interesting:

“We are waiting with trepidation about how the Chancellor will fill a £50 billion black hole”,

which, it said, equates to about 2% of UK GDP. An independent Scotland would have to fill a hole equivalent to more than 10% of Scottish GDP, so there would be five times the problem that has been created by the Tories at Westminster. As the First Minister acknowledged, the Scottish economy would be cut off from its biggest trading partner by a hard border. But before we even take account of the devastating impact of this, we just have to look at the Scottish Government’s own accounts.

Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) (SNP)

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Murray

Let me just finish this point. I promise that I will give way in a moment.

We are not helped by the Scottish Government’s paper itself, which simply chooses to ignore the figures from Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland and pretend that they do not exist. The paper says:

“No estimate of the fiscal starting point for an independent Scotland’s finances is included in this document.”

That is rather surprising, because the SNP has—along with Labour and other Opposition parties—rightly been demanding that the UK Government produce the figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility on the forecast for the UK economy on the basis of their botched mini-Budget. The SNP does not even mention its much-lauded growth commission, which it has now junked. That does not seem very reassuring.

Pete Wishart

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Murray

Let me just finish this point. I will come back to the hon. Gentleman.

The starting point was always the Scottish Government’s own accounts—the GERS figures that the First Minister used to use as the starting point and bible have now been disowned. Every previous key document on their independence case had referenced those figures, and I have them here. Their independence referendum White Paper states:

“GERS is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances.”

“Scotland’s Future: What independence means for you” cites its source as Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland—that is, GERS. “The Economic Case for Independence” states:

“This report uses data published in the annual Government Expenditure and Revenue for Scotland (GERS) report.”

“Pensions in an Independent Scotland” also states:

“This report uses data published in the annual Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) report.”

“Your Scotland, Your Voice” states:

“The most recent GERS demonstrates that Scottish public finances ran current budget surpluses in each of the three years”.

Pete Wishart

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Murray

I will give way to the hon. Gentleman before his knees give out.

Pete Wishart

I am genuinely grateful to the hon. Gentleman, but he need not worry about my knees. He is coming very close to saying that somehow the Scottish people, with all our resources and our history of invention and creativity, are unique in the world in that we would not be able to make a success of independence. What does he think is so lacking in the Scottish people that we, among all the peoples of the world, would not be able to make a success of being an independent nation?

Ian Murray

By the hon. Gentleman’s proposition, I could go into Barclays bank on Monday morning when my mortgage is due and say, “I’m not going to pay it” while waving the saltire. I wonder if the bank manager would accept that as payment.

This debate is not about the Scottish people; it is about the bust proposition that is being put to the Scottish people on independence. There is no doubt that the Scottish Government are now GERS deniers. These are their own figures; this is the crux of the issue. The Scottish Government’s own accounts show a deficit in Scotland of £23.7 billion, which is equivalent to 12% of Scottish GDP or 1.5 times the entire budget of the Scottish NHS. How do they plan to resolve that deficit? Where will the spending cuts land? If they are going to borrow tens of billions to support a new currency, what happens to the day-to-day spending deficit? Do they borrow that as well? At what cost, and in what currency? I am afraid that this paper makes the Conservatives’ mini-Budget look like an economic masterstroke.

Let me finish by talking about borders. For the first time, the Scottish Government and the nationalists have admitted that there would be a hard border between Scotland and England. Families and businesses who for three centuries have bonded and traded freely would be split up by a hard border, a different currency and a different country—[Interruption.] Members keep braying from a sedentary position, but they have no answers to these questions. In fact, the answers they are giving us make their position worse, not better. Let us be clear: Scotland trades more with the rest of the United Kingdom than it does with the rest of the world combined. The SNP’s response to the Conservatives’ damaging Brexit is to commit an act of economic folly that would be several orders of magnitude worse.

The SNP has no credible answers on pensions either. The right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber claimed that the UK Government would continue to pay Scottish pensions after independence, having seemingly not read his party’s own policy from 2014. So who will pay? Will somebody clarify whose position on pensions is right? Is it the right hon. Gentleman, the First Minister or the papers that they have put into the public domain?

Let me finish with words from themselves—

Neale Hanvey

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Murray

I said I would give way to my neighbouring colleague, the hon. and learned Member for Edinburgh South West (Joanna Cherry), but she is no longer here—

Angus Brendan MacNeil

She’s given up on you.

Ian Murray

She has given up; she has no answers to these questions either.

It is little wonder that the Institute for Fiscal Studies—much quoted by the First Minister in the last few weeks, and rightly, because of the mess this Government have made of the UK economy—has also slammed the SNP’s position. The IFS said:

“It is highly likely an independent Scotland would need to make bigger cuts to public spending or bigger increases to tax in the first decade following independence ”.

The IFS was right about the mini-Budget—indeed, everyone quotes it, including the First Minister—and it is right about this proposition as well. If SNP Members will not listen to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, why will they not listen to their own people on their own side? Robin McAlpine of the Common Weal foundation has been quoted already today, and he is somebody the SNP used to quote vociferously in here. He campaigned for independence alongside the First Minister—and alongside many Members who are now sitting here—in 2014.

Neale Hanvey

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Murray

I will happily give way if the hon. Gentleman wants to talk about Robin McAlpine.

Neale Hanvey

I think it is important to point out to the shadow Minister that there is no single blueprint or proposal for Scotland. Those are decisions that the people of Scotland will take after independence, and there are other propositions on the table. That is what a democracy is. I want to pick him up on one point from some time ago, when he made the suggestion that democracy is allowed to prevail in Ireland and he supports it because it keeps the peace. Is he therefore suggesting— I hope he is not—that there needs to be violence—[Interruption.] No, this is important. I fled Northern Ireland when I was a seven-year-old boy because of sectarianism. Is that really the point that he is making about how democracy will prevail?

Ian Murray

I am going to treat that intervention with the contempt it deserves and utterly ignore it, if that is the kind of argument we are getting from the Alba party. The hon. Gentleman was elected as an SNP Member of Parliament, and the people of his constituency of Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath should reflect seriously on what they do at the next general election.

Neale Hanvey

On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. I just want to give the shadow Minister the opportunity to correct the record. I was not elected as an SNP MP. I was elected as an independent MP.

Ian Murray

Ah, yes, the hon. Gentleman did correct the record. I forgot that he was suspended for antisemitism. I am surprised he wants to put on the public record why he was thrown out of the Scottish National party, but I think that his second contribution probably sums up my disdain and the reason why I would not accept his first one about violence in Northern Ireland.

But I was talking about Robin McAlpine, who said of the economic position for independence that we have to get off the “mad bus” of the First Minister’s independence prospectus. He said:

“It could be because you think the government should have a lender of last resort. It could be because you realise they have no economic plan for Scotland. It could be because they failed to come up with answers on trade or borders. It could be because the whole thing is utter pish. Pick your reason, but for God’s sake get off this mad, mad bus”.

The Tories have lost all economic credibility by crashing the UK economy, and on the same day that they reversed their catastrophic mini-Budget, the SNP produced a paper that should have been entitled “Hold my beer”. It is a mad, mad bus indeed, and ordinary working people across the country will pay the price. It is time for a UK Labour Government.

Neale Hanvey

On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. I know it may feel politically expedient for the shadow Minister to slur me in the way that he did, but he should be aware that I was reinstated into the SNP because the accusations of antisemitism did not stand. I have worked tirelessly with Danny Stone from the Antisemitism Policy Trust and other Members in this House to ensure that that scourge is not furthered. I am not an antisemite.

Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)

That is now on the record. I think we should move on. As “Erskine May” states, there should be good behaviour, but to be honest I am not seeing a lot of it in this debate. Let us try and change the tone.

Ian Murray

Further to that point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. I accept the timeline, but I was accurate to say that the hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Neale Hanvey) was thrown out as the SNP candidate following accusations of antisemitism.

November 3, 2022
Alister Jack – 2022 Speech on Scottish Independence and the Scottish Economy

The speech made by Alister Jack, the Secretary of State for Scotland, in the House of Commons on 2 November 2022.

I am grateful for the opportunity to speak in this debate. I would, by convention, congratulate the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) on securing the debate, but forgive me, Mr Deputy Speaker, if I break with custom on this occasion, for the simple reason that a debate on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom is not a priority for the Scottish people, it is not a priority for Scotland, and it should not be a priority for this House. It is no surprise to me—but it is a great pity none the less—that the SNP has retreated into the only issue it ever cares about. It is a great pity because I and Conservative Members would warmly welcome a serious debate about the Scottish economy.

I believe that this House should be discussing ways to improve Scotland’s economic growth, because our economic growth has lagged behind that of the United Kingdom during the time the SNP has been in power at Holyrood. Why is that, I wonder? How much better might things have been if the SNP had respected the democratic result of the 2014 referendum, and ceased its constant, unwanted demands to re-run that referendum?

Several hon. Members rose—

Mr Jack

I fear that the SNP’s constant campaign—its neverendum campaign to leave the United Kingdom—acts like a millstone around the neck of the Scottish economy.

Steven Bonnar

I appreciate the Secretary of State giving way. We often hear that we do not respect the result of the referendum. I joined the SNP one week after the referendum. I was sent here to protect Scotland from Brexit and to fight for Scottish independence. Is that not taking part in the democracy of our country? I was not a member of the SNP then; I joined one week after the referendum, and I was elected to this place to help deliver Scotland’s path to independence. That is democracy.

Mr Jack

That simply is not democracy, because the hon. Member is not respecting the result of the referendum in 2014. As we heard from the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber, there was confusion and, in that referendum, the Scottish National party was proposing that Scotland leave the EU. We have just heard a whole speech on how desperate the SNP is to get back into the EU, yet in 2014 the proposal made was that Scotland would leave—

Angus Brendan MacNeil

On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Is it in order to suspend proceedings so that the Secretary of State can have a tutorial on how elections and ballot boxes work and how an x is put on a piece of paper?

Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)

I am sure that the hon. Member’s leader would not be delighted if I were to suspend proceedings for any reason whatsoever.

Mr Jack

I say to the hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil): take the splinter out of your own eye. I am explaining how ballot boxes work. There was a very good, legal referendum in 2014, and it was won by those who wanted to remain in the United Kingdom. It is as simple as that.

I return to the point about the neverendum campaign being a millstone around the neck of the Scottish economy. The last thing that people need is greater uncertainty. The last thing that Scotland needs is the SNP’s continual push for a divisive referendum on leaving the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom Government are working tirelessly to strengthen the Scottish economy.

During the covid pandemic, it was the UK Government who had the ability to support our economy through furlough and business grants, keeping businesses in business and protecting people’s livelihoods. We are now supporting households and businesses facing increased energy costs. The UK Government are also providing the Scottish Government with a record block grant settlement of £41 billion a year over the next three years. In real terms, that is the highest settlement since 1998.

Alex Cunningham

Seeing as I live in England, I may well have scuppered any chances I had of getting my Scottish passport, but the leader of the SNP did not mention education in his speech. Does the Secretary of State believe that may be because we have seen Scotland tumble down the PISA rankings for maths and science as the SNP has neglected the education of the future population of our home country?

Mr Jack

The hon. Gentleman makes a good point. It is not just education standards that are falling—there are many problems throughout public services in Scotland, and drug deaths are three times higher than in the rest of the United Kingdom. It is clear that those failings in public services in Scotland happen because the Scottish Government get up every day and go to work with the one objective of breaking up the United Kingdom, not realising that they are a devolved Administration who should be focusing on health, education and crime, doing the proper day job that people voted for them to do. I absolutely agree with him.

Jamie Stone

It is a well-known fact that the Scottish National party loves me to bits. However, I received my second covid vaccination from a British solider in Raigmore Hospital, where the British Army stepped in during the pandemic. The independence argument falls apart when it comes to the defence of the United Kingdom, because there is nothing that Vladimir Putin would like to see more than Scotland breaking away and our defences split in two.

Mr Jack

The hon. Gentleman makes a very good point. During the pandemic, in my role as Secretary of State for Scotland I signed many MACA—military aid to civil authorities—requests for Scotland, and our armed services stepped up and did an incredible job of helping us through the process.

In addition to the UK Government support that I mentioned, we are directly investing £2 billion that will be delivered through the city region and growth deals programme, the levelling-up fund and the United Kingdom shared prosperity fund. Those projects are starting to transform communities and create tens of thousands of high-quality new jobs.

Marion Fellows (Motherwell and Wishaw) (SNP)

The Secretary of State goes on about levelling up and how grateful we in Scotland should be for money that is disbursed from the UK centre at Westminster. Does he actually believe that? Does he not understand that people in Scotland pay taxes here as well as in Scotland and that we are entitled to a share of all those funds?

Mr Jack

All the SNP councils in Scotland are applying for these funds, and they have been welcomed. I remember the leader of Glasgow City Council—an SNP council—saying how pleased she was that the UK Government were delivering those funds directly to local authorities in Scotland. And—guess what?—they are taking that money in its full amount and delivering it to local projects. That is exactly how it should be.

Marion Fellows

I have signed applications for levelling-up funds because my community is as entitled to them as communities in the rest of the UK. We pay our taxes as well, and we do not need to be lectured about taking hand-outs, which is what the Secretary of State is implying.

Mr Jack

That could not be further from the truth. I am not implying that for a minute. It absolutely is fair shares for everyone; we have never disputed that. All I am explaining is that the method of delivery is through local authorities to get project funds directly to local communities.

Several hon. Members rose—

Mr Jack

I am going to make some progress—[Interruption.]

Mr Deputy Speaker

Order. Mr MacNeil, you could start an argument in a room on your own. The Secretary of State is not giving way. Please pipe down.

Mr Jack

We are close to announcing two new UK freeports in Scotland, backed by £52 million of investment from the United Kingdom Government. That is a great example of how much more we can achieve when Scotland’s two Governments work together. We know that we can achieve much more by working together. So I repeat my offer to the Scottish Government to come and work with us on transport by improving cross-border links such as the A75 and on agriculture by giving farmers the gene editing technology that they desperately want. Gene editing will make crops more disease and drought-resistant and thereby drive down food prices. They should also work with us on energy, bringing small modular nuclear reactors—yes, you heard it here—to back up our tremendous renewable energy.

Iain Stewart (Milton Keynes South) (Con)

Will the Secretary of State give way?

Mr Jack

Yes, I give way to my former colleague.

Iain Stewart

In talking about the city region and growth deals, the freeports and all the other shared investments, is not the key point that that is real devolution and not central Government—whether here or in Edinburgh—dictating to local areas what they want? It is them deciding their priorities and working with both Governments to deliver on them.

Mr Jack

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. I thank him for all the work that he did on the subject while he was a Minister in the Scotland Office. He was an absolute powerhouse in working with local authorities and working through all the different deals available. I appreciate everything that he did.

Several hon. Members rose—

Mr Jack

If I can continue, the North sea transition deal is another thing that shows the UK Government working together with the offshore oil and gas industry to achieve a managed energy transition that leaves no one behind. The deal has the potential to support up to 40,000 jobs and generate up to £16 billion of investment by 2030. We are also supporting 1,700 Scottish jobs through the £3.7 billion Ministry of Defence shipbuilding programme on the Clyde. Those are just a few examples.

Carol Monaghan (Glasgow North West) (SNP)

Will the Secretary of State explain how he is working with the Scottish Government to tackle child poverty? The Scottish Government have the Scottish child payment of £25 a week. What more can he do to support children who are living in poverty just now because of the UK Government’s policies?

Mr Jack

Apart from the record settlement of £41 billion over three years, there is additional money—the £37 billion —from the support schemes the Chancellor introduced. That has Barnett money, which goes to the Scottish Government. The wonderful thing about devolution is that the Scottish Government can then decide how they spend that money.

Neale Hanvey (Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath) (Alba)

Is the Minister able to tell us what percentage of the £8 billion of oil and gas revenue that has gone to the Treasury in the last nine months is being directed to the Scottish Government to prioritise for their own spending? What percentage of that revenue goes to Scotland? The answer is none, isn’t it?

Mr Jack

The answer is that Scotland gets her share of Government spending. Everything goes into one big pot, but we know that spending in Scotland is 26% higher per head than it is per head in England. That is the Union dividend, which I will come on to, of £2,000 per man, woman and child. We have one Treasury and one pot, and Scotland takes a very fair share out of that.

Several hon. Members rose—

Mr Jack

I am going to make some progress.

I have given some examples of how the UK Government are investing in Scotland. As I said earlier, I would welcome a proper debate about the Scottish economy any day, but this is not a serious debate. It is, I am afraid, just another opportunity, as we have heard from SNP Members, to dust off some of their tired old grievances.

Let me turn to the premise of the motion and let us all consider reality. As the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber will be well aware, the pound has recovered. The Bank of England interventions have been effective and our energy interventions will help to bring down inflation.

Ian Blackford

Will the Secretary of State give way?

Mr Jack

I did not intervene on the right hon. Gentleman and I do not expect him to intervene on me. He spoke for a very long time.

This is a challenging economic period internationally and we should not pretend that the UK—

Ian Blackford

On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. On the day of the referendum, the pound-dollar rate was 1.64. The Government have crashed the pound over the course of the last few years. That is the harsh reality and the Secretary of State might actually recognise that.

Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)

I call the Secretary of State.

Mr Jack

To clarify the record, I was referring to the recent turmoil in the market. [Interruption.] Let me proceed.

This is a challenging economic period internationally and we should not pretend that the UK is the only nation which faces difficult times. The overall economic stability that the UK offers is the best long-term guarantee we have, so the right hon. Member is simply wrong in the motion about the state of the UK economy. He compounds his mistake, because his motion speaks of a land that exists only in his overactive and deeply aggrieved imagination: the so-called failing state of the UK. That will be the United Kingdom which has the sixth-biggest economy in the world, the UK which is a leading partner in NATO, the UK which is at the heart of the G7, and the UK with a permanent seat on the Security Council of the United Nations. [Interruption.] They do not like hearing it.

Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)

Order. Please resume your seats. Come on. Stop it, please. Stop it. We did not have that noise when the leader of the SNP was speaking, so in deference, and in good behaviour, please stop the shouting.

Mr Jack

SNP Members do not like hearing it. Instead of insulting Scots’ intelligence, the SNP might explain what it is doing with Holyrood’s extensive powers in economic development, education and skills, planning and transport to grow the Scottish economy.

I hope that as the debate progresses we will hear something constructive from SNP Members, but I fear ferries will float before we do. Rather than deal with what actually matters to the vast majority of Scots—growing the economy and creating jobs—SNP Members want to talk about the Scottish Government’s “independence papers”.

Several hon. Members rose—

Mr Jack

I will make some progress.

Those papers have provoked scorn from respected economic experts, and even from high-profile independence campaigners. One prominent nationalist—Mr Deputy Speaker, I apologise in advance for the unparliamentary language—referred to the recent economy paper as “utter pish”. The kindest thing I could do is move on without further mention of those publications, so I will.

I am very clear that we will tackle the challenges we face more effectively as one United Kingdom. Much to the frustration of the SNP, the Scottish Government’s own Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures demonstrate the benefit to people in Scotland of being part of the United Kingdom. As I mentioned earlier, people in Scotland benefit from a Union dividend worth more than £2,000 a year for each man, woman and child.

Mr Perkins

I agree with the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) that in 2014 the pound was at 1.64 against the dollar and that now, because of this Government, it has crashed. However, what does it say to the Secretary of State that even with that, the Scottish independence campaign seeks to reassure the markets by saying it will not go for the Scottish pound, but stick with this crashing economy? What does that say about its confidence in the Scottish pound?

Mr Jack

I would add to the hon. Gentleman’s remarks by saying that as a country shadowing the pound it will not be the lender of last resort—it will have no lender of last resort. It is utterly irresponsible.

As one United Kingdom, we are able to draw on our great shared institutions such as the NHS. We are better able to respond to the nationwide challenges on the cost of living, just as we did in overcoming the pandemic when we offered the covid vaccine to everyone in the UK. The energy price guarantee will save a typical household in Great Britain around £700 this winter. I believe that our collective strength as a family of nations means we are much better able to tackle the big problems.

Stephen Flynn (Aberdeen South) (SNP)

Will the Secretary of State give way? [Interruption.]

Mr Jack

For ingenuity, Mr Deputy Speaker, I will give way.

Stephen Flynn

I thank the Secretary for State for giving way. In the aftermath of his former Prime Minister’s and former Chancellor’s budget, he called on the Scottish Government to implement those tax cuts. Beyond that, the following day he said that he was going to “hold firm” on those tax cuts. Does he regret those comments, and indeed the damage that his Government caused to households in Scotland?

Mr Jack

I make no apology for the fact that I have always been pro low taxes. That remains my position today.

For all that the motion for today’s debate purports to focus on the economy, we should be clear that it is, in reality, about allowing the SNP to talk about the one issue that matters to it: separation and seeking to break up the UK. This is simply not the time to be talking about another independence referendum. We share these islands, and we share a rich, shared history.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

Will the Secretary of State give way?

Mr Jack

It is like musical chairs, Mr Deputy Speaker.

Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)

If the hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil) carries on moving across the Labour Benches, he will find the door is there. [Laughter.]

Angus Brendan MacNeil

On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Is it in order to put on a Liverpool accent so that the Secretary of State will maybe give way to a Scottish MP?

Mr Deputy Speaker

It is up to whoever is on their feet who they allow in. For whatever reason, you are not the flavour of the month, Mr MacNeil, and I have to say you are rapidly going down my list as to when you will actually come in.

Mr Jack

Mr Deputy Speaker, I admire the tenacity of the hon. Gentleman. He is obviously very good at playing musical chairs, but I am going to finish.

We share these islands. We share a rich history. Together, we have been able to develop the great institutions we are so proud of, such as the NHS and our armed forces. People in Scotland want their two Governments to be focused on the issues that matter to them: growing our economy, ensuring our energy security, tackling the cost of living and supporting our friends in Ukraine against Russian aggression. Those are the issues that matter to the people of Scotland, not the motion before us today.

November 3, 2022
Ian Blackford – 2022 Speech on Scottish Independence and the Scottish Economy

The speech made by Ian Blackford, the Leader of the SNP at Westminster, in the House of Commons on 2 November 2022.

I beg to move,

That this House regrets the economic damage the Government has caused since the mini-budget on 23 September 2022, with the pound hitting a record low against the dollar, mortgage rates at their highest level since the financial crash and inflation at a forty-year high; calls on the Government immediately to reinstate the bankers’ bonus cap, increase benefits in line with inflation and protect the pensions triple lock; considers that Scotland cannot afford to be part of the failing state of the UK and must be independent for economic stability; and welcomes the publication of the Scottish Government’s independence papers series, Building a New Scotland and The Economic Opportunity for Scotland from Renewable and Green Technology by David Skilling.

Mr Speaker—

Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) (Lab)

Too long!

Ian Blackford

From a sedentary position, the hon. Gentleman says, “Too long,” and of course he is right—Scotland has been stuck in this Union for too long. I look forward to the opportunity for my colleagues to leave this House for the last time when Scotland becomes an independent country—it has indeed been too long.

It is fair to say that Westminster has been no stranger to chaos and crisis over the last number of years, but even with that in mind, it has still been hard to take in fully the mayhem and madness in this place in the last few weeks. Another Tory Prime Minister gone. Another Tory Prime Minister imposed in Scotland. The only thing that stays the same is the constant crisis in this place. Even the kangaroo genitalia-eating junket to Australia of the right hon. Member for West Suffolk (Matt Hancock) passes for a normal affair around here these days.

The core of today’s motion is designed to demonstrate that the permanent political pantomime that Westminster has become is not somehow victimless or benign; it comes with a massive, massive cost. Each and every one of these Westminster crises comes with a consequence, and it is always those who can least afford it who end up paying the price of the failure of Westminster control.

Let us take the example of the last few months. The UK Government have been so consumed by their own political crisis that they have ignored the economic crisis they caused with their mini-Budget on 23 September. Indeed, they are not just ignoring it; they are completely blind to the mess they have made. In the last 10 days, it has been hard not to notice that Tory Members are in a state of excited relief at the fact that they have got rid of a Prime Minister who managed to crash the UK economy in the space of 44 days. In their great relief, they seem to have magically forgotten that they were the ones who put her in place. They were the ones who were cheering on her libertarian joyride—until the very moment that she crashed the economy. They may have gotten rid of the Prime Minister they put in place, but for ordinary people the damage is already done.

Alex Cunningham (Stockton North) (Lab)

I get extremely anxious about my homeland splitting from my now home country, particularly as Scotland has no credible fiscal plan. As I see child poverty increase, the once leading education system trashed and the NHS left to deteriorate, I wonder who is at fault. Does the right hon. Member accept that while the Tory Government have let Scotland down—

Mr Speaker

Order. This is meant to be an intervention, not a speech about all your issues. I am more than happy to put you on the speaking list.

Ian Blackford

Mr Speaker, if anybody is letting themselves down, it is the hon. Gentleman, because the Scottish Parliament has done its best to mitigate the effects of Tory austerity, thank goodness. We can applaud what the Scottish Government have done with child payments—introduced at £10, increased to £20 and now up at £25—but we cannot stop the damaging effect of austerity on our country, because the bulk of economic power lies in Westminster. The hon. Gentleman and his Labour colleagues may indeed support the Scottish Parliament—our Parliament—which does its best to protect the people from what happens in this place in Westminster and, of course, from the damaging effects of Brexit that mean our businesses cannot fulfil their potential. The hon. Gentleman ought to look in the mirror.

Angus Brendan MacNeil (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) (SNP)

The reality is that the split in terms of values is between the red Tories and the blue Tories here. The hon. Member for Stockton North (Alex Cunningham) should be aware that in Ireland, which became independent, the poorest 5% are 63% richer than the poorest 5% in the UK. If ever there was a lesson about being independent, that is it.

Ian Blackford

My hon. Friend is quite correct. When we look around the world, we see small countries thriving. Small countries tend to do better than larger ones. There are no economies of scale for large countries, and it is Westminster, the UK, that is holding Scotland back.

Let me return to the economic situation we face today: the pound is still down against the dollar and euro, mortgage rates are at their highest since the financial crash, and inflation is still at a 40-year high. History shows that those in the Tory party always act fast to rid themselves of their own political problems, but they always fail to take responsibility for the crises they create. They are failing to take responsibility for the cost of living crisis they created and the failing UK state they have presided over for the past 12 years.

It would be wrong to believe that the events causing deep damage over the last few weeks are somewhat isolated incidents. It does not take a genius to know that the timeline for every bit of turmoil in this place over the last few years stems from one place and one place only: the utter disaster of Brexit. Six years on, it has been a disaster by every significant measure. Brexit broke Britain.

Only yesterday, Scotland’s The Herald newspaper revealed that the value of Scottish exports has dropped by more than 13% in two years, costing £2.2 billion, with Brexit entirely to blame. That is what Brexit has done to the Scottish economy and Scottish trade. That has been the impact of what the Tories have brought to us. However, faced with these Brexit facts, it is a disgrace that Westminster’s only response is to say one of two things: “Suck it up,” or, “Shut up.” I assure the Brexit fanatics that we intend to do neither.

The reality of Brexit is biting everywhere. Last week I visited the Nevis Bakery in my constituency. The owner, Archie Paterson, explained to me that they currently employ 30 people, and that they could easily double that tomorrow, expanding their production line, expanding their premises and growing the local economy. But just one thing is stopping them, and it is Brexit. Brexit means they have no access to labour. The balance of workers used to be 80% EU skilled bakers, and that has declined to only 20%. They cannot get the staff, so they cannot expand. It is the same story for businesses across the highlands and right across Scotland: denied economic opportunity; denied the opportunity to grow our economy; denied the opportunity to prosper and deliver the taxation receipts. All that has been delivered by the Brexit Scotland never voted for.

Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)

I agree with much of what the right hon. Gentleman is saying about the incompetence of the Conservative Government. On Brexit, however, an important fact is being missed. During the referendum, when many of us fought very hard to make sure the UK stayed within the EU, the Scottish National party spent just £91,000 on its campaign—13% of what it could have spent. It spent less on that campaign than on a Shetland by-election. It spent less than 7% of what it spent on trying to take Scotland out of the UK. Will he take this opportunity to apologise to everyone who voted remain for the fact that the SNP went missing from the pitch during that campaign?

Ian Blackford

My goodness, Mr Speaker, I hate to point out to the hon. Gentleman that 62% of those who voted in Scotland voted to stay in the European Union. I am proud to say that my right hon. and hon. Friends and I were up and down Scotland during the Brexit campaign, leading the people of Scotland and making the case for Scotland to stay in Europe.

Christine Jardine (Edinburgh West) (LD)

On that point, will the leader of the SNP please explain to us why his party spent less on the EU referendum than on a Scottish parliamentary by-election on Shetland?

Ian Blackford

This would be funny if it was not so tragic. It used to be the case—[Interruption.] We have many hours of debate, and if Labour and Liberal Democrat Members calm down, I am sure that they will get the opportunity to speak. Maybe I should point out to the hon. Lady that the Liberal Democrats used to proclaim staying in Europe—

Christine Jardine

And still do.

Ian Blackford

No, you don’t. If the Liberal Democrats wanted to stay in Europe, as the hon. Lady suggests, they would have that in their manifesto. The Labour party and the Liberal Democrats have run away from Europe, just as they have run away from their responsibilities to the people of Scotland.

Drew Hendry (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey) (SNP)

Is it not the case—just to educate the hon. Member for Chesterfield (Mr Perkins)—that not only did we carry the argument in Scotland, winning 62% of the vote for remain, but we carried that argument successfully in all 32 council areas in Scotland?

Ian Blackford

My hon. Friend is quite correct that every local authority area in Scotland voted to remain. Not only did people across Scotland vote to remain, but that demand to stay in Europe has increased over the past few years. In fact, recent polling shows as many as 72% of Scots wish to remain in Europe. I say to those watching in our own country that there is a clear way to achieve this. If Scotland has its right to determine its own future, and if our Parliament, which has an independence majority, can enact the referendum that our people voted for, then Scotland’s journey to independence and back into the European union will be complete.

Kirsten Oswald (East Renfrewshire) (SNP)

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way—[Interruption.]

Ian Blackford

On a point of order, Mr Speaker. I have just been called a liar.

Mr Speaker

I did not hear what was said—

Steven Bonnar (Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill) (SNP)

Ask him!

Mr Speaker

Do you want to go out early for a cup of tea? Because you are on my speaking list. Let me deal with it. Mr Bonnar, I need no help, thank you. If somebody said that, I expect them to withdraw it, because we do not use that term in this Chamber.

Mr Perkins

Further to that point of order, Mr Speaker. I certainly withdraw any implication that the right hon. Gentleman is a liar. I did not say he was a liar, but I did say that what he said was untrue. I withdraw that out of respect to you, Mr Speaker.

Kirsten Oswald rose—

Mr Speaker

I call Ian Blackford. We are moving on. We have dealt with it.

Ian Blackford

I give way to my hon. Friend.

Kirsten Oswald

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way. Does he not think that people at home will be looking askance at Labour Members? First, they were apologists for the chaos that the Conservatives have inflicted on Scotland’s economy. Now, they are some kind of supporters of Brexit, which has caused so much harm to Scotland. It is inexplicable how any Opposition Member could take such a position, as we all heard them do.

Ian Blackford

My hon. Friend is correct. It is 1.10 pm; we have until 7 o’clock to debate the issue. To hon. Members in other parties on both sides of the House, I promise that we will respect the importance of the subject, because this is about Scotland’s future. To friends and colleagues—Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem Members—I say, let us have that debate about Scotland’s future and let us respectfully disagree on what we see the future as. We will put the case for Scotland to be an independent country; they should come and engage with us, and put the case for Scotland to stay in the Union. I have to say that when we have these debates, I do not hear that case for Scotland to stay in the Union.

The evidence of the damage done by Brexit is mounting by the day. From those who forced it on Scotland, however, not one word of contrition or apology has ever been offered for that massive act of economic self-harm. I am tempted to say that when it comes to Brexit and Westminster, there are really none so blind as those who will not see—my goodness, that has been shown today. In many respects, however, the truth is even worse.

Alun Cairns (Vale of Glamorgan) (Con)

I welcome the right hon. Gentleman saying that he wants a serious debate about the status of Scotland in the Union and the benefits of Scotland being in it. In his arguments so far, however, he has blamed everything from rising energy costs to global supply chain challenges on Brexit. Does he not recognise that we have been facing a tumultuous global situation? If he acknowledged that, we could at least start to have a sensible debate.

Ian Blackford

I thank the right hon. Gentleman. I think he is genuinely trying to be helpful, so I will respond in kind. We are suffering from an enormous increase in energy costs. I applaud the fact that we have the energy cap, but let us remember the harsh reality that for people up and down these islands, energy costs have doubled in the last year. People will face genuine hardship. [Interruption.] I can see him shaking his head, but the harsh reality is that our energy market is determined by the wholesale gas price. For those of us in Scotland, 14% of our electricity consumption comes from gas and we actually produce six times as much gas as we consume. We are being affected largely by the failures of UK energy policy and, yes, by global issues as well, but the fact that energy costs are so high in energy rich Scotland is an absolute disgrace.

Mhairi Black (Paisley and Renfrewshire South) (SNP)

On the intervention of the right hon. Member for Vale of Glamorgan (Alun Cairns), of course the last few years have shown how unpredictable the world can be and how many unexpected challenges we can face, but does that not just hammer home how important it is for Scotland in particular to get the Governments it votes for? Given that Scotland has not voted for a Conservative Government since 1955, does my right hon. Friend not agree that by far and away the best way to protect ourselves against the unpredictable is to be independent and in control of our resources?

Ian Blackford

My hon. Friend is correct. Not since 1955 has Scotland voted for a Conservative Government, yet we face Conservative Government after Conservative Government. The difference between me and the hon. Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) on the Labour Front Bench is that I would rather have an independent Labour Government in Scotland than a Tory Government in London who demonstrate their contempt for the people of Scotland through their policies. That is the reality. Unfortunately, he would rather have a Tory Government in London than an independent Scottish Government over whom he may have influence.

Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) (SNP)

Again on the intervention of the right hon. Member for Vale of Glamorgan (Alun Cairns), is it not the case that, although there are high global oil and gas prices, Norway has a sovereign wealth fund of $1 trillion—the biggest in the world—that can be used to support its citizens, whereas Westminster has squandered our oil and gas revenues all these years? Even then, the McCrone report from the ’70s, which was buried for 30 years, showed the wealth that would have accumulated to Scotland had it been independent. Both Labour and the Conservatives held that information from the Scottish population.

Ian Blackford

My hon. Friend is correct. I think the taxation receipts for North sea oil over the period that he is talking about have been north of £350 billion. What a missed opportunity to ensure that we could invest for future generations, eradicate the poverty that has been talked about and deliver hope for future generations. I will come on to the opportunities from green energy. My message to him and other hon. Members on both sides of the House is that a green industrial revolution could come to Scotland, so we need to create the jobs that will drive up productivity and investment and give people hope—but we are not going to do that while we are part of Westminster.

There are plenty of intelligent people in this place—I am especially looking at Labour Members—and we can see the damage that Brexit has done. They see it, but they will not say it. The reason they will not say it is that they are frightened that they will lose votes in the north of England, and to hell with the consequences in Scotland and everywhere else. I am sorry to say that that is one of the most shameful examples of politics replacing principles that this place has ever witnessed—that is really saying something in Westminster.

Dr Luke Evans (Bosworth) (Con)

One of the reasons that the UK voted for Brexit was that the EU stands for ever-closer union, which means joining the euro. The right hon. Gentleman has talked about independence, so will he be joining the euro? Will he not then accede some of the control over the fiscal situation that he wants to deal with?

Ian Blackford

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, but let me return to 2014. At the time of the Scottish referendum, we were told that, if we stayed in the United Kingdom, two things would happen: first, we would stay in Europe and secondly, we would lead the UK in a voluntary Union of equals. None of that has happened, however, because of his example of being taken out of the European Union against our will. The key difference is that Europe is a partnership of equals.

Since the hon. Gentleman asked about currency, I will answer head on. When Scotland becomes independent, as it will, we will retain the pound. [Laughter.] It is funny, is it? We are talking about people’s futures and we are trying to deal with a serious matter. We will keep the pound until such time that a number of economic tests are met that will allow us to have a Scottish pound. That is what will happen.

Dr Luke Evans

I am grateful that the right hon. Gentleman has been clear and direct in saying that Scotland will have the pound. If he joins the EU, however, is the plan not to join the euro? He will have to concede, therefore, that Scotland will have to do that. By what mechanism would he therefore keep the pound, or the Scottish pound, or refute having the euro?

Ian Blackford

I respectfully say to the hon. Gentleman that he should go away and read the treaties, because they are very clear; we are all aware of what is contained in them. Crucially, to join the euro, countries have to join the exchange rate mechanism for two years, which is voluntary. Countries cannot be forced into the euro. Our position is clear: we will deliver a fiscal programme that will deliver jobs for Scotland, create the circumstances for investment and drive up living standards—that is what we want with independence. We will make sure that we have the answer to the currency situation that delivers for our people.

Angus Brendan MacNeil

Perhaps the hon. Member for Bosworth (Dr Evans) is misled by headlines in The Times newspaper and should apprise himself better of what is actually happening in Europe. On 1 July 2013, Croatia joined the European Union and Croatia is not in the euro. There are about six or seven other countries in the European Union that are not in the euro. A country can join the euro if it wants over its own timescale—it can be hundreds of years if it wants—but it does what it wants and what it thinks is sensible for itself, and that is why it has independence.

Ian Blackford

I am very grateful to my hon. Friend for revealing—

Ian Murray

No, he’s wrong.

Ian Blackford

My hon. Friend is not wrong, if the hon. Member reads the treaties. I have pointed out that joining the ERM is a step that has to be taken before anyone is able to join.

Several hon. Members rose—

Ian Blackford

I am going to make some progress, and I will allow interventions later.

Ian Murray rose—

Ian Blackford

I give way.

Ian Murray

I am very grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for allowing me to intervene because this is a crucial point that people need to understand. The current position of the Scottish National party is to stick with the pound for an undefined period, then to set up her own currency. As Nicola Sturgeon said herself when she launched the economic paper, she will not commit to joining the euro. That does one of two things: it either denies EU membership, or it means an independent Scotland would have a separate currency from both the EU and its bigger trading partner, the rest of the UK. Is that not correct?

Ian Blackford

The hon. Gentleman is wrong. I have pointed out that in order to join the euro—[Interruption.] I have already laid out that we will retain the pound sterling immediately on attaining independence, and when the time is right and a number of economic tests are met, we will have the Scottish pound. There are six tests, and I will be—

Dr Luke Evans

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Blackford

I am now going to make some progress.

Dr Evans

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

Ian Blackford

I have already given way twice to the hon. Member, and I think I have been very gracious with my time.

As I said at the start, all the Westminster-imposed chaos comes with real consequences because the cost of the last six weeks, and the consequences of the last six years of constant crisis mean that the Tories are right back where they originally started—implementing austerity. This week, we have been deliberately bombarded by Treasury briefing about the “difficult decisions” that need to be made in order to fill the economic hole that the Tories dug themselves, but the return of austerity, if it ever truly went away, is not a so-called difficult decision. It is instead what it has always been—a Tory political choice to hit the poorest hardest.

No one should be fooled into thinking that there are not other choices. In the week that BP announced a quarterly profit of £7.1 billion, why not take the easy decision to bring in a proper windfall tax on excess profits? Why not take the easy decision to end non-dom tax avoidance? Why not take the easy decision to reinstate the cap on bankers’ bonuses? With all that new revenue, why not take the easiest decision of all, and protect those most at risk by uprating benefits and pensions in line with inflation? That, after all, was the promise the Prime Minister made when he was Chancellor back in May.

Until each and every one of those easy and essential decisions are taken, the Tories should not dare talk about the difficult decisions they are having to take. I fear, though, that the Tories and their new Prime Minister have already made their choice: they are gearing up to take a wrecking ball to public services and double down on austerity. That is exactly why we are now at such a critical juncture. It is clearer by the day that austerity 2.0 is the future awaiting the Scottish people unless we escape Westminster control for good. That is why independence is not just desirable; it is essential.

There is no better example of that necessity than the energy issue. The motion refers to the detailed and evidenced-based report by David Skilling, who has laid out the facts on the sheer scale of the energy opportunity awaiting an independent Scotland. I encourage hon. Members across the House to read that report. We have the potential to generate around 10% of Europe’s wave power and possess 25% of the potential European offshore wind and tidal resource. Let us not forget that it is Westminster that is holding back our tidal potential with its refusal to fund it to the rate that will be necessary to generate up to 11.5 GW of tidal energy by 2050.

David Duguid (Banff and Buchan) (Con)

I am not sure if I picked the right hon. Gentleman up right, but is he accusing the UK Government of not funding tidal energy, when in fact £20 million of contracts for difference were committed, as ringfenced, specifically for tidal stream energy?

Ian Blackford

I am delighted that the hon. Gentleman raises that because it takes us back to the discussions we had last year. The Royal Society report published just before COP26—a peer-reviewed report—indicated the potential to get to 11.5 GW of electricity from tidal. Incidentally, that would be 15% of the UK’s electricity production, which is the amount that nuclear contributes today, and by 2030 tidal would be cheaper than nuclear. We do not need nuclear to provide our baseload electricity because tidal does it. The fact remains that that £20 million, welcome as it is, does not go far enough for that industry to develop its potential. When we look at the programmes that are already live around these shores, about 70% of the value added from tidal comes from Scotland and about 80% comes from the UK. It is a domestically grown industry.

We heard earlier from my hon. Friend the Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Alan Brown) about the contrast with the oil industry in Norway, but one of the key lessons from that is to make sure not just that we have the energy production, but that we control the supply chain. This is exactly an industry where we do control the supply chain. I say to the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid) that he should join me in pressing the Treasury to make sure we get the £50 million-a-year ringfenced pot—that is what would allow us to fulfil our potential—and at the same time to make sure that we get carbon capture and storage for Peterhead. Those two clear examples are direct demonstrations of how Scotland has been held back—held back on its ability to deliver green energy and on its desire to get to net zero in 2045. That is the cost of Westminster control for Scotland.

Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) (LD)

I may be corrected, but I fancy I am the only person in this place who has worked in an oil fabrication yard; it was at Nigg. When I worked there, 5,000 people were employed—vital jobs in the highlands. We have the skills still, but they are ageing skills and the skills are going. If we miss the opportunity to build offshore floating wind structures in Scotland, we will be failing the Scottish people. What is the difference between us and Norway? Norway does build; we do not, and we should do something about it.

Ian Blackford

I thank the hon. Member for that remark. He is right to talk about what happened in Nigg back in the day. But it was not just in Nigg, as he will recall; it also happened in the west of the highlands—in Kishorn in my own constituency and Ardersier. If you would allow, Mr Deputy Speaker, we could sing the song of the Kishorn Commandos, but maybe we will save that for another day.

Jamie Stone

I was a Kishorn Commando.

Ian Blackford

And there is many a tale to be told about what happened in Kishorn back in the day, but this is a serious point about the opportunity to industrialise the highlands and the opportunity to create jobs for generations, create wealth and create prosperity. I congratulate the hon. Member because we have worked together on making sure that we are pushing for the opportunities in Cromarty, but these are decisions that we should be taking in Scotland to make sure that we deliver on that promise.

We cannot mention often enough the potential we have in green energy. Scotland is energy rich, and we simply should not be facing an energy emergency. We should not have cold homes and soaring bills. Even before this crisis—as the hon. Member would acknowledge, we already had the situation before this crisis—40% of pensioners in the highlands lived in fuel poverty. What a disgrace that we allow that happen.

Dave Doogan (Angus) (SNP)

My right hon. Friend is making a powerful speech. Does he agree with me, and do his constituents share my concerns, that people look out at these wind installations—such as Seagreen off the Angus coast, two revolutions of which can power a home for an entire year—yet at the same time they cannot pay their electricity bill, thanks to the UK’s energy market? Is that not in itself a reason to decouple ourselves from this broken Union?

Ian Blackford

Indeed, because I think it fair to say that we are being ripped off. We are being ripped off by transmission charges. I am grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Aberdeen South (Stephen Flynn, because he took me to see an offshore wind farm in Kincardine a few weeks ago—what a demonstration of the opportunity we have from the North sea. The fundamental point is that we should not have cold homes and soaring bills. We produce six times more gas than we consume, and nearly 100% of the equivalent of our electricity consumption already comes from renewables—[Interruption.] I have said equivalent on many occasions.

Ian Murray

We’ll check Hansard.

Ian Blackford

I did ask for respect and honesty in this debate, and I think that if the hon. Gentleman checks Hansard, he will find that I have said that on a number of occasions.

This is Scotland’s energy and it should serve Scotland’s people. The Skilling report shows that Scotland has the potential to boost our output by more than five times, increasing from 12 GW of installed renewable capacity to over 80 GW by 2050. Just think about that—80 GW of electricity by 2050. That is as much as four times the energy Scotland needs. It will provide the cheap, green energy that will allow us to have a new industrial revolution, and to see jobs come to the eastern highlands, the western highlands, the lowlands and the south of Scotland as a consequence of the economic opportunity that will be created. By expanding Scotland’s renewable capacity and becoming a green hydrogen exporter, we have the chance to pump as much as £34 billion into Scotland’s economy every year—an investment that would sustain up to 385,000 jobs, dwarfing the jobs that we have in oil in gas today. That is a real energy transition.

This is a plan for growth—green, sustainable growth for the long term, not the fantasy growth that we had from the Truss Government and the absence of any plan from the existing Government. Driving better productivity, driving an industrial green society, and driving our economy into the future—that is the plan on which an independent Scotland can and will be built. Apparently, the only UK Government response to that energy plan is the bizarre argument that we should ignore the vast renewable energy potential and instead turn to nuclear. Well, let us be very clear: we do not need nuclear in Scotland, we do not want nuclear power, and we will not be having nuclear power. We want the powers of independence so that Scotland’s energy can finally serve the needs of the Scottish people.

In the latest Scottish Government paper on independence, our First Minister set out all the economic opportunities that independence will unleash. Instead of Westminster anti-trade union laws, we could ensure fairer work with European-style labour market policies. Instead of an economic race to the bottom, we could build an economy based on human wellbeing, lifting people up so that they can contribute fully, not waiting for wealth to trickle down while the inequality gap grows. Instead of Brexit, we would be an EU member state in our own right and we would, for the first time, be in a position not just to benefit from EU trade deals, but to help shape them. Instead of a hostile environment and the disgrace of a Home Secretary who talks about “invasions”, we would have a humane immigration policy tailored to our needs.

David Duguid rose—

Ian Blackford

I will happily give way to the hon. Gentleman if he will join me and ask the Home Secretary to apologise for the outrageous language that she used in this Chamber on Monday.

David Duguid

I genuinely thank the right hon. Gentleman for allowing me to intervene on the point he was making about an independent Scotland being in the EU—a point he made previously. Does he agree with his leader in Holyrood, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, when she admitted that there could be hard borders and passport controls between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom?

Ian Blackford

Here we go: “Project Fear” all over again. Let me give the hon. Gentleman and the House the example of Ireland. Way back in the 1940s, close to 90% of Ireland’s exports were to the rest of the United Kingdom. Today that figure is less than 10%, but the value of Irish exports to the UK actually increased every single year, irrespective of the economic cycle. An independent Ireland was able to pursue policies that delivered growth and resulted in investment and trade opportunities. That is the opportunity for an independent Scotland.

Robin Millar (Aberconwy) (Con)

I would not want us to move too far beyond the point about humane treatment. Is it the case that Ukrainian refugees in Scotland currently have to be housed in temporary accommodation on ships, in which the space they must occupy is less than is legally required for prisoners in Scottish prisons?

Ian Blackford

I should not be surprised by some of the things we get from the Tories in this House, but has the hon. Gentleman any sense of listening to what has been happening this week in Kent, when he comes and accuses the Scottish Government regarding those seeking refuge on our soil? We can be proud of what the Scottish Government have delivered, led by our former colleague Neil Gray. Around 20% of Ukrainian migrants who have come are in Scotland living in our country. We have opened our doors and welcomed them, and by goodness that is something we should be proud of.

Several hon. Members rose—

Ian Blackford

I will make some progress as I am conscious of the time.

Instead of Westminster control, we would always have the stability of knowing that the Governments who shape our economy have been elected by us—a simple democratic principle.

The great American writer Maya Angelou once said:

“When people show you who they are, believe them the first time.”

Well, people in Scotland have had more than enough of Westminster control. We know who the Tories are, we know what this place is, and we know the deep damage it has done. We believed them the first time. That is why Scotland has not voted for the Tories since 1955. Westminster has made its choice and chosen its future. It is a present and a future of constant crisis—a Brexit-backing, failing UK state. It is time that Scotland left those choices and that future behind us for good. We do not have to believe in Westminster control anymore; we have only to believe in ourselves. It is now time for Scotland to build its own future—an independent future in Europe.

November 3, 2022
Ian Blackford – 2022 Comments on Austerity in Scotland

The comments made by Ian Blackford, the Leader of the SNP in Westminster, on Twitter on 1 November 2022.

Rishi Sunak has no mandate to impose devastating Tory austerity cuts – or, indeed, any mandate at all.

With the Tories and Labour Party imposing Brexit and cuts, independence is the only way to keep Scotland safe and get back on the path to prosperity.

November 1, 2022
Nicola Sturgeon – 2022 Article on How Scotland “Can Do Better”

The article written by Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, on 27 October 2022.

Here we are again – watching, with a depressing sense of deja vu, utter chaos reign at Westminster.

It’s hard to believe that it is just two months ago that I wrote about the Tory leadership election that followed the resignation of Boris Johnson.

I said then that if the people of Scotland had been given a say, it was almost certain we would have chosen neither Liz Truss nor Rishi Sunak to be Prime Minister.

As it happened, the tiny number of Tory party members who did get a say chose Liz Truss.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Within two weeks of her appointment, the new Prime Minister’s disastrous policy of tax cuts for the richest had crashed the economy, sent mortgage rates soaring, and brought pension funds to the brink of collapse.

All of it heaped even more misery on people who are already struggling with the cost of living crisis.

There is no doubt that the mess the UK is now in is the fault of the Tory party – but it is people and businesses who are paying the price of their incompetence.

People are struggling to pay mortgages, heat their homes, buy food, and pay bills. More and more are being forced into abject poverty.

Indeed, all that Liz Truss achieved in her short tenure as Prime Minister was to make an already difficult cost of living crisis so much worse.

Unfortunately for her – and more importantly the country – that will be the dreadful legacy of her short period in office.

But the circus has already moved on. Rishi Sunak is now in Downing Street, the fifth Prime Minister in my time as First Minister.

And yet again, he’s a Tory politician that Scotland didn’t vote for, and doesn’t want.

For Scotland, a new Prime Minister does nothing to solve the fundamental democratic problem we face.

Scotland hasn’t voted Tory since the 1950s, and yet time and again, we have to put up with governments we don’t vote for.

The bottom line is that Scottish votes don’t decide the outcome of UK elections.

So for as long as Scotland is part of a broken Westminster system, we will always be vulnerable to getting governments we don’t vote for, implementing policies that do real damage to our country.

Indeed, as the news of Liz Truss’s resignation started to emerge, I was chairing a summit of energy companies, advice organisations, and anti-poverty campaigners to discuss what more can be done to tackle high energy bills.

Unfortunately – as is so often the case – Westminster decisions are making that more difficult.

For example, the curtailing of the Energy Price Guarantee by the new Chancellor last week – in what was yet another U-turn – has removed any certainty people and businesses had.

Even the current cap of £2,500 – in place until April – is a very significant increase for households already struggling to pay bills and heat their homes.

And yet there is now no clarity at all on the support with bills that will be provided after April next year.

Whilst the Scottish Government will continue to work hard within our limited powers and finite budget to support people, businesses, public services and the economy, it is clear that the UK government needs to do more to help in the short term – and that in the longer term, more substantial reform of the energy market is needed to address sky-high bills.

But while action from the UK government is badly needed, it simply lurches from one crisis to another.

Remember how, in the 2014 independence referendum, the Westminster parties often framed the choice as being between the strength and stability of the UK on the one hand, and the risk and uncertainty of independence on the other?

Well, if that was ever the case – which it wasn’t – it certainly isn’t now. No one can now argue that the UK economy offers strength, stability or certainty.

Now, more than ever, it’s clear that the UK is heading in the wrong direction.

The economy is stuck in a cycle of low growth, low productivity and rising inequality. And we are continuing to feel the damaging impact of a Brexit that Scotland didn’t vote for.

Last week, the Scottish Government published the third paper in our ‘Building a New Scotland’ series.

In the paper, we argue that a stronger, fairer, more sustainable economy is much more possible for Scotland with independence, than it ever will be as part of the UK.

By combining Scotland’s many economic strengths and abundant resources – particularly our vast renewable energy potential – with the powers that come with independence, an economic model built on social partnership, and good, stable governance, we can build an economy that works for everyone, everywhere.

There can’t be many people – if any – who look at Westminster right now and think this is as good as it gets. It is not.

Scotland can do so much better, and the SNP will continue to make the case for how and why.

October 28, 2022
Nicola Sturgeon – 2022 Comments on the Scottish Economy

The comments made by Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, on 17 October 2022.

Scotland has an abundance of skilled people, innovative businesses, and natural resources. We have everything it takes to be just as successful as comparable independent European countries. Our analysis from the first paper in the Building a New Scotland series shows that a dynamic economy and social justice go hand in hand. Each makes the other stronger.

Scotland’s economy is one of the best performing in the UK – however the UK economy, particularly post-Brexit, is now lagging behind many EU and international comparators. The UK economic model is demonstrably failing and increasingly holding Scotland back. Independence is now essential to build an economy that works for everyone. The paper we are publishing today will help people make a clear, informed choice about independence and how we can forge a path towards becoming a fairer, greener, wealthier country.

October 17, 2022
Nicola Sturgeon – 2022 Comments on Tackling Child Poverty

The comments made by Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, on 10 October 2022.

I am proud of the work the Scottish Government is doing to tackle child poverty. The Scottish Child Payment is paid to eligible families and is unique in the United Kingdom. It started for under-6s at £10 per week per eligible child. In April we doubled it to £20. Five weeks from today we will increase it again, to £25 and will also extend it to families with children up to age 16.

That is vital financial help for well over 100,000 children, delivered in time for Christmas. That is the sign of a government with the right priorities.

But we need to do more because we know this winter is going to be really tough. Rather than looking forward to Christmas, too many families will be dreading it because they don’t know if they can afford to heat their homes or even pay for food.

As part of our help to the poorest families over last year and this, ahead of rolling out the Scottish Child Payment to under 16s, we have made quarterly bridging payments of £130 to children and young people in receipt of free school meals.

I am delighted that the Scottish Government will double the December Payment from £130 to £260.

That will help put food on the Christmas table for families of 145,000 children and young people. I don’t pretend it will make all of their worries go away – no government with our limited powers can ever do that. But I hope this investment of almost £20 million will bring a bit of Christmas cheer to those who need it most.

October 11, 2022
John Swinney – 2022 Comments on Scottish Budget Date Being 15 December

The comments made by John Swinney, the Deputy First Minister in Scotland, on 6 October 2022.

There is no doubt that the challenges and obstacles of recent times have heavily impacted the way we live. Our continued recovery from the pandemic, the current cost of living crisis, the ongoing turmoil and uncertainty regarding the UK Government’s plans for its Autumn budget and Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine all have implications on the people of Scotland and our economy.

We are not privy to discussions surrounding the UK Government’s ever changing Autumn budget plans, despite the clear and obvious impact this has on our ability to plan our 2023-24 Budget. The Scottish Budget will be informed by voices across Scotland to ensure we continue to deliver to build a fairer, greener and more prosperous country.

I look forward to working with stakeholders and the Committee to ensure a Budget is delivered which puts the priorities of the Scottish people at the forefront and continues to strengthen our economy.

October 11, 2022
Anas Sarwar – 2022 Comments on Division

The comments made by Anas Sarwar, the leader of Scottish Labour, on Twitter on 10 October 2022.

You don’t beat division with more division.

There isn’t a majority for a referendum next year.

There isn’t a majority for independence.

There is a majority for change – in Scotland and across the UK.

It’s time for change – it’s time for Labour.

October 10, 2022
Keith Brown – 2022 Speech to SNP Conference

The speech made by Keith Brown on 8 October 2022.

Delegates, members, friends,

Welcome to the 88th Annual National Conference.

It’s been too long since we last gathered in person as the SNP family. To rekindle life-long friendships and to forge new ones, to share stories old and new, and to fondly remember absent friends.

In the darkest days of the pandemic, moments like this seemed a distant prospect but here we are – and it’s fabulous to be back.

It is particularly great to be back here in the fantastic city of Aberdee. And friends, after too many years of a shoddy Labour-Tory coalition, it is now SNP-run Aberdeen.

Friends, as life continues its return to normality, I’d like to pay tribute to those whose tireless work and selfless commitment has brought us to this moment.

The NHS staff, care workers, the police, prison and emergency services, all the key workers and our fantastic colleagues working in vital council services across Scotland.

We can all have faith that those on whom we relied during the last two difficult years will continue to give of their best to protect us and our loved ones.

I’m sure you will all join me in saying to each and every one of them a heartfelt “Thank you”.

Friends, much has changed since we last met three years ago in this very hall. Not least the recent passing of the crown from Queen Elizabeth to King Charles. It was a significant moment in the life of these islands.

And since we last met, the world of politics has been changing too.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has seen off three – and is now on to her fourth – Tory Prime Minister.

And, given how Liz Truss has started, her party is already turning on her and it won’t be long until they force her out, too.
Conference, what we are witnessing now is a Westminster Government tearing apart the fabric of Britain.

After the catastrophe that was Boris Johnson’s time in office, Scotland heaved a collective sigh of relief. But Liz Truss has delivered more chaos and confusion than even the most pessimistic prediction.

In less than a month, she has tanked the economy; risked the pensions of millions; scrapped the cap on bankers’ bonuses; announced then u-turned on income tax cuts for the rich; created a debt crisis; and showed the world she is singularly unfit for the job.

The chaos she has created is no surprise.

The only people who ever believed she was fit for Number 10 were the few thousand Tory members who put her there.

We all knew different. The evidence was clear to see. She has been a Tory Government Minister for a decade, serving under Cameron, May and Johnson.

From austerity to Brexit, she’s been complicit in inflicting the worst Tory policies on the people of this country.

It is a sobering thought indeed, that when the history of 2022 is written, it will record that Boris Johnson was not even the worst Prime Minister this year.

What is clear is that Liz Truss is a symptom of the dysfunction at Westminster – not the cause. The very fact that she and her policy agenda was deemed acceptable to enter Downing Street in the first place speaks volumes.

And, conference, as bad as the Tories are – and they are atrocious – any suggestion that a Labour Westminster government will be better for Scotland is simply laughable.

Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair.

Under Starmer, the Labour Party is as Trumpian as the Tories in their denial of Scottish democracy.

It is an incontrovertible fact that the SNP has a cast-iron mandate to hold an independence referendum.

But Labour always side with the Tories to protect Westminster control – no matter how high a price the people of Scotland pay.

Labour supports the deeply damaging Brexit that Scotland did not vote for. I repeat, Labour supports Brexit, and stands against any Scottish aspiration for our country to re-join the European family of Nations.

And never forget, never forgive that, in 2014, it was Labour who championed the Better Together message that only a No vote would deliver economic stability.

It seems absurd now, but that’s what Labour promised.

They can’t be trusted with our future. And we know through the bitter lessons of history that Labour are only ever the handmaidens of more Tory rule.

If they get into power, they are soon turfed out by the Tories. It’s a pattern repeated time after time after time.

Conference, Scotland must be in no doubt, independence is the only way to get rid of the Tories for good.

Your homes, your pensions, your incomes are not safe under Westminster control. It is a price that Scotland can no longer afford to pay.

Friends, there is however, some much needed good news.

What has remained constant during this period of unprecedented change is the SNP’s continued dominance of Scottish politics, and our undiminished desire for independence.

And with the whole Westminster system quite clearly broken beyond repair, the need has never been more pressing to deliver that wealthier, happier, and fairer Scotland that independence will bring.

Friends, last year we witnessed a historically significant Scottish Parliament election.

While we will never take the Scottish electorate for granted, it is worth re-stating the magnitude of that 2021 victory for a party which has now been in power for 15 years.

And earlier this year the electorate renewed that trust at local level, too, when we gained seats and maintained our position as by far the largest party in local government, winning 37 per cent of all seats. And you, in this hall, played a crucial role in both these results.

Your incredible dedication helped deliver a historic fourth term for the SNP. Secured Nicola Sturgeon as our First Minister and renewed our mandate for a new independence referendum.

The people of Scotland continue to put their trust in us to govern – as demonstrated so conclusively by every recent opinion poll. Despite how hard the opposition tries, our independence movement will not be wished away.

Regardless of how hard Labour and the Tories try to deny reality, the sovereign will of the Scottish people will not be denied.

So, friends, we gather this weekend in great shape – but also with renewed resolve.

I’d like to take this opportunity to thank all the staff across the party who have worked so hard to put this conference together.

Over the weekend we will have speeches from Deputy First Minister John Swinney and our Westminster Leader Ian Blackford.

Our agenda is packed full of Resolutions, and we look forward to lively debate across the coming days.

We will hear from Angus Robertson and campaign director Michael Russell. And conference will end on a high with the keynote address from our leader, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

Conference, the momentum is with us and we must capitalise on that momentum now.

That is why the Scottish Government has started publishing a series of papers which, when taken together, will provide an updated and detailed prospectus for independence.

These new government papers will be essential to help voters make their fully informed choice. Party HQ has already used these papers to create videos, graphics and printed literature for you to share.

There will be no shortage of campaigning material, of that you can be sure.

And there is more. Today it gives me great pleasure to reveal a significant new campaigning initiative:

Conference, the SNP is entering the broadcasting arena.

We will soon launch a brand new broadcast platform, with the first episode of this brand new show covering the debate over Scotland’s future.

We will bring you familiar and new voices to discuss the big issues surrounding the case for independence. So please, keep your eyes peeled online and in your email inbox for more details on this exciting development to be announced very soon.

This new venture will bring to life our vision of a better, fairer, more sustainable Scotland.

Our ambitions are matched only by the commitment of you, our members and activists, whose hard work pounding the streets will turn ambition into reality – home by home by home.

The pandemic and now the cost-of-living crisis has shown everyone what really matters.

As we look to the future, we continue to urge the people of Scotland to think about what kind of country they want to live in.

Who is best placed to make decisions affecting their lives?

Who is most committed to making Scotland a fairer, more prosperous nation and tackling key issues like the cost of living?

Who will deliver a wealthier, happier and fairer nation.

Our case for an independent future is one based on optimism and ambition. A belief that the people who live here make better decisions about our lives rather than remaining under the corrosive control of Westminster.

We must deliver a society where no-one needs worry about feeding themselves and their families. Where, as prices continue to rise and rise, no one worries about paying their heating bills during the coming cold months of winter.

We need independence to invest in our bountiful renewable energy resources, the scale of which will be transformational not just for our energy supply but for our whole economy.

Friends, the contrast between Scotland’s two governments has never been so stark, the gulf between our priorities never so wide.

As the Scottish Government’s new independence papers illustrate, Britain is less wealthy, less happy and less equal than so many European countries the same size as us.

We are already being held back by Westminster control and Brexit is making things worse – much, much worse. These are political choices. There are other, better, fairer options.

While Truss’s Tories continue to line the pockets of the wealthy, the SNP is set on an entirely different path.

Our fledgling benefits agency Social Security Scotland is now delivering a wheen of new benefits making a real difference across Scotland.

Consider just one of them – The Scottish Child Payment.

It is perhaps the most significant policy development of my political lifetime, and one for which we should be incredibly proud.

It has been described by anti-poverty campaigners as a game changer, but even that does not capture its true value to those in receipt of this support.

It started out at £10, was doubled to £20 and was raised again to £25 a week. And soon it will be rolled out to every eligible child under 16.

In the current economic storm, it is money that is paying for absolute essentials and keeping entire families from going under.
But as brilliant as the child payment undoubtedly is, it has also exposed the fundamental inadequacies of the devolution settlement.

The child payment is designed to be transformative. It is meant to lift children out of poverty, to combat the poverty-related attainment gap, to give kids from less well-off backgrounds the opportunities their parents were denied.

Now, because of decisions taken by Scotland’s other government, the one at Westminster, the cash which was meant to make a difference is now essential to keep the chill at bay or food on the family table.

It’s why I seethe with frustration at constant opposition calls for the Scottish Government to mitigate against the policies inflicted on Scotland by the Tories.

They can’t see – won’t see – they are failing Scotland’s children by defending the Westminster control that causes so much damage. Mere survival cannot be, must not be, the summit of our ambitions for future generations of Scottish children.

With the full powers of a normal, independent country, Scotland could finally tackle the root causes of poverty.

But to do so we must first break free from the constraints of that Westminster control, where ambition is strangled and opportunity denied to all but the rich.

Friends, we need independence.

Of course, I don’t need to convince you of that. But, working together, we must continue to win over our fellow Scots who are not convinced yet.

And we can convince our fellow Scots that, in an independent Scotland, everyone’s basic needs are met as a right, and are no more at the mercy of Westminster, where wealth and opportunity is reserved for the few.

Every Scot deserves better than this.

And the people in this hall are the people to deliver that better tomorrow.

Because the prize is there for the winning.

Friends, we have work to do.

Thank you.

October 10, 2022