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PRESS RELEASE : Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast – The EU economy at a turning point [November 2022]

The press release issued by the European Commission on 11 November 2022.

After a strong first half of the year, the EU economy has now entered a much more challenging phase. The shocks unleashed by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine are denting global demand and reinforcing global inflationary pressures. The EU is among the most exposed advanced economies, due to its geographical proximity to the war and heavy reliance on gas imports from Russia. The energy crisis is eroding households’ purchasing power and weighing on production. Economic sentiment has fallen markedly. As a result, although growth in 2022 is set to be better than previously forecast, the outlook for 2023 is significantly weaker for growth and higher for inflation compared to the European Commission’s Summer interim Forecast.

Growth set to significantly contract at the turn of the year

Real GDP growth in the EU surprised on the upside in the first half of 2022, as consumers vigorously resumed spending, particularly on services, following the easing of COVID-19 containment measures. The expansion continued in the third quarter, though at a considerably weaker pace.

Amid elevated uncertainty, high energy price pressures, erosion of households’ purchasing power, a weaker external environment and tighter financing conditions are expected to tip the EU, the euro area and most Member States into recession in the last quarter of the year. Still, the potent momentum from 2021 and strong growth in the first half of the year are set to lift real GDP growth in 2022 as a whole to 3.3% in the EU (3.2% in the euro area) – well above the 2.7% projected in the Summer Interim Forecast.

As inflation keeps cutting into households’ disposable incomes, the contraction of economic activity is set to continue in the first quarter of 2023. Growth is expected to return to Europe in spring, as inflation gradually relaxes its grip on the economy. However, with powerful headwinds still holding back demand, economic activity is set to be subdued, with GDP growth reaching 0.3% in 2023 as a whole in both the EU and the euro area.

By 2024, economic growth is forecast to progressively regain traction, averaging 1.6% in the EU and 1.5% in the euro area.

Inflation yet to peak before gradually easing

Higher-than-expected inflation readings throughout the first ten months of 2022 and broadening price pressures are expected to have moved the inflation peak to year-end and to have lifted the yearly inflation rate projection to 9.3% in the EU and 8.5% in the euro area. Inflation is expected to decline in 2023, but to remain high at 7.0% in the EU and 6.1% in the euro area, before moderating in 2024 to 3.0% and 2.6% respectively.

Compared to the Summer Interim Forecast, this represents an upward revision of nearly one percentage point for 2022 and more than two points in 2023. The revisions mostly reflect significantly higher wholesale gas and electricity prices, which exert pressure on retail energy prices as well as on most goods and services in the consumption basket.

Strongest labour market in decades to remain resilient

Despite the challenging environment, the labour market has continued performing strongly, with employment and participation at their highest and unemployment at its lowest in decades. The forceful economic expansion pulled a net additional two million people into employment in the first half of 2022, raising the number of employed persons in the EU to an all-time high of 213.4 million. The unemployment rate remained at a record-low of 6.0% in September.

Labour markets are expected to react to the slowing of economic activity with a lag, but to remain resilient. Employment growth in the EU is forecast at 1.8% in 2022, before coming to a standstill in 2023 and moderately edging up to 0.4% in 2024.

Unemployment rates in the EU are projected at 6.2% in 2022, 6.5% in 2023, and 6.4% in 2024.

Low growth, high inflation and energy-support measures weigh on deficits

Strong nominal growth in the first three quarters of the year and the phasing out of pandemic-related support have been driving a further reduction of government deficits in 2022, despite new measures adopted to mitigate the impact of surging energy prices on households and firms. After falling to 4.6% of GDP in 2021 (5.1% in the euro area), the deficit in the EU is forecast to decline further to 3.4% of GDP this year (3.5% in the euro area).

In 2023, the aggregate government deficit is, however, set to slightly increase again (to 3.6% in the EU and 3.7% in the euro area) as economic activity weakens, interest expenditure increases, and governments extend or introduce new discretionary measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices. Their planned withdrawal in the course of 2023 and the resumption of growth should reduce the pressure on public purses thereafter. As a result, the deficit is projected at 3.2% of GDP in the EU and 3.3% in the euro area in 2024.

Over the forecast horizon, a further reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected in the EU, from 89.4% of GDP in 2021 to 84.1% of GDP in 2024 (and from 97.1% to 91.4% in the euro area).

Exceptional degree of uncertainty

The economic outlook remains surrounded by an exceptional degree of uncertainty as Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues and the potential for further economic disruptions is far from exhausted.

The largest threat comes from adverse developments on the gas market and the risk of shortages, especially in the winter of 2023-24. Beyond gas supply, the EU remains directly and indirectly exposed to further shocks to other commodity markets reverberating from geopolitical tensions.

Longer-lasting inflation and potential disorderly adjustments on global financial markets to the new high interest rate environment also remain important risk factors. Both are amplified by the potential for inconsistency between fiscal and monetary policy objectives.

10/12/2022
PRESS RELEASE : Burkina Faso – Commissioner Lenarčič launches EU Humanitarian Air Bridge in country [November 2022]

The press release issued by the European Commission on 11 November 2022.

As Burkina Faso risks a major humanitarian disaster, the EU is stepping up emergency support to deliver aid to vulnerable populations where access is severely limited. Today Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarčič is in Burkina Faso, to express EU solidarity and launch an EU Humanitarian Air Bridge operation to deliver between up to 800 tons of essential supplies over 3 months.

Currently up to 1 million people live in areas under blockade according to the United Nations. Some areas have not received any food supplies for several months. Stocks of food and other items are completely exhausted, leading to market closures.

Meeting with Prime Minister Appolinaire Joachim Kyelem de Tambela, Commissioner Lenarčič reiterated the EU’s call for full humanitarian access to all populations in need across the country.

In 2022, the Commission allocated €49.9 million in humanitarian aid to Burkina Faso, including via the recent Air Bridge flight and €6.5 million from the European Development Fund to address the global food crisis. With the additional funding of €2.5 million announced today, the total humanitarian aid for Burkina Faso for 2022 will reach more than €52 million in total. Combined with the contributions of the EU Member States in a Team Europe approach, this amounts to a total of more than €140 million for 2022.

Background

Burkina Faso’s complex and volatile crisis continues to deteriorate quickly and severely. The country is among the 10 poorest in the world.

In many parts of the country, agricultural food production is nonexistent due to lack of access to fields. In those areas the population is therefore now at high risk of starvation.

In addition, the country is suffering a worsening and unprecedented food insecurity crisis and significant deterioration in access to water and basic social services. During the lean season, it is estimated that 3.45 million will need emergency food assistance, including 630,000 in a pre-famine state.

The internal conflict has intensified, spreading across ever more regions of the country. Armed violence has caused massive population displacements and is increasingly targeting civilians. The first months of 2022 have been marked by a substantial increase in the number of internally displaced persons, with 805,000 new displacements recorded by CONASUR (National Committee for Emergency response and Rehabilitation) since the beginning of the year.

EU humanitarian aid focuses mainly on providing food assistance, health, nutrition, emergency shelter, access to water and sanitation, as well as protection to people in need. EU humanitarian aid also provides support to vulnerable internally displaced people and host populations affected by the ongoing armed conflict, and disaster response preparedness and education in emergencies to those who most need it.

Since March 2022, the Humanitarian Air Bridge operations, which have initially started due to the COVID-19 pandemic, are part of the European Humanitarian Response Capacity, a set of operational and logistical tools managed by the European Commission that supports humanitarian partners in delivering humanitarian aid.

10/12/2022
PRESS RELEASE : Speaking Points for the conference on Bulgaria in the Eurozone—Advantages and Opportunities [December 2022]
The press release issued by the IMF on 9 December 2022.

Speaking Points for the conference on Bulgaria in the Eurozone—Advantages and Opportunities

By Alfred Kammer
Introduction

It is a great pleasure to be here in Sofia today.

Let me start with my bottom line:

In my view, becoming a full member of the euro area offers important benefits for Bulgaria—strengthened institutions and a seat at the table when the ECB determines monetary policy for all euro area members.

But joining the euro area is not a panacea for all of Bulgaria’s challenges; and completing the accession process will require more policy work and the determination to overcome the obstacles that are still ahead.

So, there is some work ahead, but Bulgaria has shown in the past that it can meet crucial challenges like these.

Let me discuss these arguments in more detail.

Bulgaria’s Currency Board Experience

While euro area membership comes with challenges, Bulgaria has over two decades of experience with an unmovable exchange rate.

Formally introducing the euro means giving up monetary independence for good. This is a consequential decision. But Bulgaria has operated a currency board since 1997, when it traded exchange rate flexibility as a tool to absorb external shocks for the external stability promised by a credible fixed exchange rate regime which since 2000 has been pegged to the euro.

So, monetary policy has been tethered to the decisions of the ECB for almost a generation, and Bulgaria’s policymakers are already well aware that, in such a setting, fiscal and structural policies are the main tools for macroeconomic management and for fostering economic convergence.

I would add that the currency board has served Bulgaria well.

One reason is that the currency board has brought economic stability. This is largely because it was supported by disciplined fiscal policy, thanks to which Bulgaria enjoys one of the lowest public debt ratios among all EU member countries. This is a key asset in the current turbulent environment which is characterized by increases in long-term yields and spreads across Europe.

We have also seen some progress on structural reforms, even though more work is ahead in this area to foster faster income convergence with EU peers and to increase living standards.

I would also argue that Bulgaria’s currency board and strong fiscal position were among the factors that helped shield it from some of the financial market stresses that affected many of the Eastern European economies following the tightening of financial conditions since the summer.

Euro Benefits

It is clear that adopting the euro promises important benefits.

First, joining the euro would reduce transaction costs for trade and financial flows by eliminating all currency conversion costs, thereby increasing economic efficiency.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, euro introduction would remove uncertainty about the country’s future policy framework, strengthen external credit ratings and further reduce public and private funding costs. This would help foster foreign and domestic investment and thus higher economic growth.

Third, while joining the euro will not eliminate sovereign crisis risk, it would largely shelter Bulgaria from volatile capital flows and eliminate any residual risks of speculative attacks against the currency that disproportionately affect small, open economies.

This means, it would further strengthen financial sector stability, including by giving Bulgarian banks access to the ECB’s lending and emergency facilities to support liquidity needs in emergency situations. This would add to the already large gain from having joined the banking union.

Last but not least, introducing the euro would give Bulgaria a seat at the table where monetary policy that affects the country is decided. Under the currency board, Bulgaria “imports” the ECB’s monetary policy decision without any input into the decision making.

The experience of Euro adopters—the Baltic countries

The Baltics are a good example of how strong post-accession policies can help make euro area membership a success:

The underlying fiscal position strengthened, particularly in Latvia and Lithuania, with fiscal balances close to zero post-euro adoption and prior to the Covid crisis. In this context, the cost of public debt fell, with government bond spreads vis-à-vis German Bunds being about 2 percentage points lower, on average, after adoption.

Before the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the inflation gap with the euro area remained positive but small and stable, at about 1 percentage point. It was sustainable because strong structural policies supported a positive productivity differential vis-à-vis the euro area. Among these policies were sound and stable labor market institutions that, by delivering labor market flexibility, also ensured that real wages remained broadly in line with productivity. This, in turn, contributed to maintaining strong external competitiveness.

In addition, strong supervisory and macroprudential policies helped sustain financial stability.

Overall, the three Baltics gradually but steadily built significant policy and macroeconomic buffers post-adoption, building on the efforts they had already displayed prior to adoption.

And euro membership itself also contributed to a vast reduction in risks of disorderly capital outflows or sudden stops during periods of stress. This, in turn, also facilitated the conduct of fiscal policy.

Lessons for Bulgaria

What does this mean for Bulgaria? In a nutshell, to thrive before and after euro adoption, Bulgaria will need to keep up the good work—maintaining strong policy discipline, retaining flexible labor markets, and carrying out growth-enhancing structural reforms.

But let me be more specific:

Bulgaria should continue its tradition of fiscal responsibility and preserve the hard-won gains in this area. This will be important to continue fostering macroeconomic and financial stability under the euro.

Importantly, accelerating reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness is needed to make euro adoption a success. This is crucial, as trend unit labor costs have been growing faster in Bulgaria than in the euro area because wage growth, pushed by labor shortages, outpaced productivity improvements.
- Strengthening governance, increasing transparency, and fighting corruption are crucial to improve the business environment and increase the efficiency of public spending and the quality of public investment. This will promote a more productive and more inclusive economy.
- Investing in human capital to align education, health, and social protection outcomes with those of EU member states is also important. For example, education outcomes remain well below the averages of EU member countries or newer EU member states.
- In addition, Bulgaria will benefit from addressing skill mismatches and boosting labor force participation to help ease labor market pressures.
And continuing to promote the green transition and digitalization will help sustain growth over the longer term. For instance, the use of digital technology by businesses and digital skills are among the lowest in Europe, notwithstanding progress made in building the supporting digital infrastructure and developing e-government.

Let me close.

Bulgaria’s currency board has fostered a commitment and discipline that has contributed to the economic success of the past quarter century. With equally strong commitment and discipline, euro adoption could contribute to an equally successful journey in the next quarter century.

Thank you.
10/12/2022
PRESS RELEASE : EU Tax Symposium “Road to 2050: A Tax Mix for the Future” [November 2022]
The press release issued by the IMF on 28 November 2022.

Keynote Speech Vitor Gaspar

Prepared in collaboration with Ruud de Mooij

Thank you very much for inviting me to speak in the EU Tax Symposium: Road to 2050.

I find the topic of ‘the tax mix for 2050’ timely and important. To me, it shows how the EC is ahead of the game in preparing for the challenges of the future. This is very welcome and very necessary in today’s turbulent times. Many policy makers are occupied with the transition out of the pandemic or dealing with the challenges of inflation. During such turbulent times, the contrast between wisdom and folly looms large and can have long lasting consequences.

The focus on tax and 2050 allows me to reminisce on my experience at the Commission’s Bureau of European Policy Advisers and the last report I wrote for the President of the European Commission on Taxation in the Digital Economy.

Back in history

To predict the future, we first need to understand the past. Let me take 4 minutes to highlight some of the remarkable changes in taxation that have occurred over the last 1½ century or so.

In the old days, say before 1870, states used simple tax handles to fund their operations, such as customs duties, transaction taxes and several funny taxes that were recently described in a fascinating book by Joel Slemrod and Michael Keen (e.g. taxes on chimneys, windows, hats, wigs, candles, mirrors, dogs, salt and bricks). Many of these taxes were of course highly distortionary as they are directly penalizing the functioning of markets and trade.

You may even have noticed that I stole the reference—to wisdom and folly—from the Keen and Slemrod book.

The modern income tax was a major innovation of the late 19 ^th and early 20^th century. It was first developed in Britain. Corporate income taxes came a little later and served as an effective withholding mechanism for the income tax. Anticipations of the international corporate tax system go back to the 1920s.

These innovations have led to a much more prominent role of the state. Tax-to-GDP ratios rose from a little over 7% in 1870 to well above 27% today. It coincided with the appearance of the modern social welfare state. Brad DeLong showed that this long 20th century is associated with the best 140 years of economic growth in History.

In the 1970s and 1980s, top income tax rates on personal income had risen to levels of 70 or 80%, while corporate tax rates were often 40 to 50%. These high rates turned out to be too distortionary and became unstainable. Since then, tax rates have declined.

After WWII, France invented the Value Added Tax. This gained traction in the EU in the 1970s to replace various distortionary and cascading turnover taxes. Since then, we have seen a global “spread of VAT”, with a leading role of the IMF. In Europe, VAT is now responsible for more than one quarter of revenue.

During the last 20 years we have also witnessed something else: its corrective role. This is based on Pigou’s principle to set prices right and, for example, make polluters pay. Carbon taxes and other environmental levies were first pioneered in Scandinavia in the 1990s and have since spread to 45 countries around the world.

Please note that all listed tax innovations originated in Europe. What they have in common is that they came in response to mounting distortions that made the earlier system untenable. They also explored information and administrative capacity as they became usable, over time. These themes I will explore in the remainder of my talk.

Drivers of change

The EC has identified 4 mega trends that will likely shape the tax mix of the future. Let me reflect briefly on each of them and how I think they will drive changes in taxation. I think the best perspective to take is that of Joel Slemrod in his book of 2014 who emphasizes the importance of an integrated approach encompassing tax policy, administration and legal aspects.

#1 Digitalization: or in the context of taxation, perhaps call it the information revolution. Digital revenue administration has already visibly reduced tax compliance gaps around the world. During the pandemic, we saw how quickly transformations happened. And much more is likely to come in the next 30 years. What I find intriguing is that this information revolution is putting classic tax theory on its head. This theory is based on information constraints—the theory of 2^nd best. We now need to rethink the old ways of taxation—distortions are no longer what they were in the past.

#2 Population dynamics: An ageing society with a declining population faces the inevitable challenge how the shrinking working population can support the expanding group of retirees. The heavy reliance on labour taxes seems to be unsustainable. As more elderly people retire and dissave, the tax burden will have to shift to consumption taxes, which are a more robust revenue source in an ageing society.

#3 Globalization has been ongoing for decades. New digital technologies and intangible assets make production factors ever more mobile, and it is therefore harder to sustain taxes where the production factors are. The destination principle is more robust to globalization because it depends on where less mobile consumers are. We already see a tendency toward destination-based taxes, for example in Pillar 1 of the global tax deal and the gradual shift toward VAT.

#4 Global public goods: Not only do climate externalities call for carbon tax to reflect the social cost of GhG emissions; corrective taxes can possibly be used for other environmental problems (waste, biodiversity), and other global public goods such as health (pandemics) or externalities in the financial sector (crypto assets).

So, the 4 mega trends will likely shape the direction of change in the tax system of 2050. However, change needs to be managed by people in governments and institutions. We therefore need to understand also how the political economy of tax reform evolves to make informed predictions of the future.

Scenarios for tax mix

Let me offer a brief perspective on what might happen with the tax system over the next 3 decades by sketching two scenarios. It emphasizes that we cannot take for granted that the theoretically ideal tax response can be implemented. The scenarios are based on two key uncertainties for the future:

(i) Trust in government: For instance, for government to be trustworthy in the digital age, it must prove its strong accountability and transparency through the primacy of the rule of law and permanent scrutiny by citizens. That is exactly what Lorenzetti’s painting here and on the first slide reflect. Can governments live up to that expectation? Or will they lack credibility, act opportunistically, and create uncertainty?

(ii) International cooperation: Will countries manage to effectively cooperate to address common challenges? Or will there be fragmentation, as we currently see in some areas?

By combining the two key uncertainties, we can in principle sketch 4 scenarios. Given time, I’m highlighting only two (2) of them, to show how the tax mix could differ in these diverging worlds.
- Scenario 1 is a world of mistrust in government and fragmentation.
- In this world, citizens demand strict data privacy and digitalization can’t revolutionize tax enforcement. Rather, digitalization exacerbates market power of large multinationals and raises the power of elites. This limits the ability for progressive taxation.
- Also in this world, unreliable governments do not deliver on their promises and tax certainty is low; governments rely on instruments such as repeat amnesties and ad-hoc windfall taxes instead of a stable rules-based system.
- At the same time, fragmentation prevents effective international and European cooperation: countries are reluctant to introduce carbon taxes and there remains fierce tax competition that erodes corporate and personal tax bases.
- Scenario 2 is a world of trust and international cooperation
- In this world, governments can (i) exploit the gains from digitalization; (ii) effectively respond to domestic trends such as ageing; and (iii) cope with international challenges such as tax competition, tax avoidance/evasion and carbon pricing.
I prefer the second scenario. But that scenario requires hard work in building and sustaining credible institutions, including in the EU. A strong Europe will be essential for two reasons.

EU in the world

First, in 2050 we need a strong Union to address the common European challenges reflected in the mega trends that cannot be resolved by individual countries. A stronger role of the EU based on macroeconomic stability and Europe-wide public goods will be essential to remain credible. This role might go beyond the coordination of national tax policies and also raises the important question about the vision for the EU budget in 2050:
- What will be the financing model to the EU budget in 2050? Will there be European taxes?
- How would that fit in the overall tax system (European; national, sub-national)?
Remember that in the US, the central government in 1780 had no taxing powers and relied entirely on national contributions from the 13 States of the confederation. And each state had veto power.

Second, Europe’s role in the global economic order is vital. As history shows, Europe has always been at the frontier of tax system innovation and served as the pioneer of the social welfare state. Is may again play this leadership role in the developments to 2050.

The single market of 1992 and the single currency of 2001 are its most emblematic achievements. The best environment for Europe is capitalism embedded in a rules-based global order. For Europe to be effective in the global arena, its countries must work together. Let me conclude with a quote from Jean Monnet from November 9, 1954. On that day, he said to his colleagues. “ Our countries have become too small for the world of today, for the scale of modern technology and of America and Russia today, or China and India tomorrow ”.
10/12/2022
King Charles III – 2022 Speech at Conferral of City Status to Wrexham

The speech made by King Charles III in Wrexham on 9 December 2022.

Boneddigion a boneddigesau,

Mr Mayor, Leader of the Council, Chief Executive, Ladies and Gentlemen,

My wife and I are absolutely delighted to be with you in Wrexham today to celebrate your becoming a city.

As you know, city status was granted to eight different communities in order to celebrate my late mother’s Platinum Jubilee. As we now mark this historic occasion, we also look back, with mingled sadness and pride, at that extraordinary reign, during which, as you know, my mother’s great love for Wales was always apparent.

It is thoroughly fitting that we should celebrate the creation of Wales’s newest city in the setting of this magnificent church, which truly deserves its designation as one of the Seven Wonders of Wales. Of course, as no fewer than six of the seven Wonders are in North East Wales, we cannot help but think that whoever wrote that famous anonymous rhyme – Pistyll Rhaeadr and Wrexham steeple, Snowdon’s mountain without its people, Overton yew trees, St. Winifred’s Well, Llangollen’s Bridge and Gresford’s bells – must have been from this part of the world!

A little earlier today, I had the opportunity to see one of the other wonders of Wrexham, namely the football club, which is busy putting Wrexham on the map as never before. And, of course, this comes after the Welsh national team has brought unprecedented international ecognition to Wales through qualifying for the World Cup.

The motto of Welsh football – Gor-au Chwar-ae, Cyd Chwar-ae – sums up the spirit of community, and of joint endeavour, which is so important to Wales, and which, over the years, I have come to know and value more than I can possibly say.

So, Ladies and Gentlemen, as you celebrate your new-found status for this very special part of the world, nothing could give me greater pleasure than to say llongyfarchiadau and to wish you every possible success for the future.

10/12/2022
PRESS RELEASE : King and The Queen Consort celebrate Wrexham’s new city status [December 2022]

The press release issued by Buckingham Palace on 9 December 2022.

Wrexham AFC

Their Majesties started the day at Wrexham Association Football Club (AFC), where they met the club owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, alongside players, to learn about the redevelopment of the club.

During the visit, The King and The Queen Consort learn about the redevelopment of the club, which is the third oldest professional team in the world.

The club is now owned by Hollywood actors, Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, who are aiming to grow the team the team and return it to the English Football League in front of increased attendances, and in an improved stadium, while making a positive difference to the wider community in Wrexham.

St Giles’ Church

Their Majesties then headed to St Giles’ Church for a celebration to mark Wrexham becoming a city, which it received as part of The late Queen Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee.

The King formally marked the conferral of city status and made a short speech.

There was then the opportunity to view the Church’s treasures including the First Edition King James Bible and a rare early 14th century chalice which is still in use before meeting Church and ecumenical representatives and local community groups.

Erdigg

At National Trust site Erdigg, The King, joined by the First Minister of Wales, planted an oak sapling, grown from the ancient Pontfadog Oak.

The Pontfadog Oak fell during a storm in 2013, and the Crown Estate subsequently manged to propagate the original tree.

His Majesty and The First Minister had previously viewed the sapling during a visit to the National Botanic Gardens in July 2022, which had been grown to mark Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee, and has now been planted in her memory.

10/12/2022
PRESS RELEASE : The King celebrates the 40th anniversary of Business in the Community [December 2022]

The press release issued by Buckingham Palace on 7 December 2022.

The King has joined a special event at Central Hall Westminster to celebrate the 40th anniversary of Business in the Community (BITC).

Business in the Community (BITC) was formed in 1982 and is the largest and longest-established membership organisation dedicated to responsible business. Today, the organisation works and campaigns with more than 600 businesses, alongside other stakeholders, with the aim of making society fairer and greener. As Prince of Wales, His Majesty was the Royal Founding Patron of BITC.

As part of the event, His Majesty viewed a display of four decades of BITC’s work, and met Fellows who have supported the organisation’s efforts over the years.

The King also recognised the impact of BITC’s Race at Work initiative which has been running for 27 years.

Business in the Community’s Race Equality campaign started in 1995 when a network of senior business leaders recognised that business action was needed to address the imbalance of opportunities for Black, Asian, Mixed-Race, and other ethnically diverse employees in workplaces across the UK.

10/12/2022
PRESS RELEASE : St Edward’s Crown removed from the Tower of London ahead of the Coronation [December 2022]

The press release issued by the Royal Family on 3 December 2022.

St Edward’s Crown, the historic centrepiece of the Crown Jewels, has been removed from the Tower of London to allow for modification work to begin ahead of the Coronation on Saturday 6th May 2023.

As per tradition, The King will be crowned with St Edward’s Crown during the Coronation Service at Westminster Abbey.

The King will also wear the Imperial State Crown during the Service.

St Edward’s Crown is the crown historically used at the moment of Coronation, and worn by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth at her Coronation in 1953. It was made for Charles II in 1661, as a replacement for the medieval crown which had been melted down in 1649. The original was thought to date back to the eleventh-century royal saint, Edward the Confessor – the last Anglo-Saxon king of England.

The crown was commissioned from the Royal Goldsmith, Robert Vyner, in 1661. Although it is not an exact replica of the medieval design, it follows the original in having four crosses-pattée and four fleurs-de-lis, and two arches. It is made up of a solid gold frame set with rubies, amethysts, sapphires, garnet, topazes and tourmalines. The crown has a velvet cap with an ermine band.

10/12/2022
Julian Lewis – 2022 Parliamentary Question on how Post Office IT Scandal Took Place

The parliamentary question asked by Julian Lewis, the Conservative MP for New Forest East, in the House of Commons on 7 December 2022.

Dr Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)

Will the inquiry which I gather is still under way ever reveal to the public how it was possible—in a modern constitutional democracy, with the presumption of innocence operating in our justice system—for hundreds of people with unblemished personal records to be prosecuted, tried and convicted because it was deemed that a computer programme could not be wrong?

Grant Shapps

The simple answer is yes, and that is the purpose of Sir Wyn Williams’s inquiry. I should remind the House that it could lead to individuals’ taking specific responsibility on the basis of his recommendations, and to the legal process that might consequently unfold.

As I said to the GLO group earlier today, anyone who has observed this from afar, watching and listening to coverage from Nick Wallis and others over the years, must feel their blood boil at the sheer injustice of a computer programme being placed ahead of people’s lives. I think that makes all of us shudder. I am only pleased that in this particular case, because of a group of people who undertook the most proactive work to try to get to the truth, we are now able to ensure that their compensation matches everyone else’s.

10/12/2022
Chi Onwurah – 2022 Speech on Post Office Compensation Scheme

The speech made by Chi Onwurah, the Labour MP for Newcastle upon Tyne Central, in the House of Commons on 7 December 2022.

I welcome today’s statement and apology, which represent an important step forward in the delivery of justice following what may well be the largest miscarriage of justice in our country’s history. There have been 900 prosecutions. All the postmasters involved have their own stories of dreams crushed, careers ruined, families destroyed, reputations smashed, and lives lost. Innocent people have been bankrupted and imprisoned.

Let me start by paying tribute to the Justice for Subpostmasters Alliance, the campaigning group, and to the hundreds of sub-postmasters whom no monetary amount can compensate for the injustice that they have suffered. This has been a long walk towards justice, and Members in all parts of the House have stood and spoken out in solidarity with the postmasters. I want to recognise, in particular, my right hon. Friend the Member for North Durham (Mr Jones) and Lord Arbuthnot, who are rightly to be members of the independent advisory board.

I also pay tribute to the Minister who was previously formerly responsible for the Post Office, the hon. Member for Sutton and Cheam (Paul Scully). I do not do so lightly, but after successive Conservative Governments had sat on the scandal, he was the first to take hold of it and eventually—following much campaigning by Members of Parliament and members of the Labour party—to establish a statutory inquiry. Finally, I want to thank the journalist Nick Wallis, whose BBC Radio 4 series “The Great Post Office Trial” did much to bring this scandal to general attention.

While I am pleased that some kind of acceptable outcome for the postmasters seems finally to be in sight, I have some questions to ask. The press release refers to a compensation scheme for postmasters who helped to expose the scandal, but I remind the Secretary of State that it was his Government who spent years aiding and abetting the Post Office in targeting those self-same postmasters who were looking for justice. Nearly £100 million was spent by the Post Office to defend the indefensible as part of a campaign of intimidation and deceit. The Government are the only shareholder in the Post Office, so it is right for the Secretary of State to take responsibility.

At the core of this unforgivable scandal is the belief that workers were dishonest and technology infallible. Perhaps that is not surprising, given the Government’s track record on defending the rights of working people. Decent, honest people have had their lives torn apart, have been put in prison, and have been made to wait years for justice. Will the Secretary of State tell us how long he expects it will take for this scheme, and the other schemes, to pay the appropriate compensation, and whether the aim of these schemes is to return people to what would have been their original position had it not been for their involvement in Horizon? Will he also tell us which legal firm will be involved in the administration of this scheme, and whether that firm has previously advised either the Government or the Post Office on this matter?

Value for taxpayers’ money is a key consideration on this side of the House, even if the Government like to waste it. Having wasted tens of millions of pounds on persecuting postmasters, can the Secretary of State tell us where the money for the scheme will come from as we face a cost of living crisis made in Downing Street? Will post office services suffer, or will other budgets be cut? The press release does not mention the Justice for Subpostmasters Alliance or Alan Bates, who led its efforts. Does the scheme have their full support?

I hope the Secretary of State agrees that those who were involved in this injustice should not benefit from their involvement. Will he tell us how he intends to hold Fujitsu to account, and whether it is still being given Government contracts? Will he also tell us whether he supports the continued retention of the CBE that was awarded to Paula Vennells—who oversaw the Horizon scandal—for services to the Post Office?

The Post Office is a national institution. It is part of so many of our lives. Its reputation has been hugely tarnished by this scandal, and I hope the Secretary of State will tell us how he intends to ensure that this never happens again and that the sub-postmasters receive justice as soon as possible.

Grant Shapps

I am grateful for the hon. Lady’s comments, although I rather hoped the House would come together today and debate this matter in a non-political, cross-party way, and she sought to make a number of, I think, somewhat inappropriate political points. I should gently point out that it was her party that was in power for the first 11 years of this scandal. I am pleased that we have worked across parties to fix it, and I think we should leave it there.

Earlier today I spoke to Alan Bates, the founder and leader of the Justice for Subpostmasters Alliance, who is sitting in the Public Gallery. Obviously the members of the JFSA will speak for themselves, as they always have, about the extent to which they are satisfied with today’s statement, but we have been working closely together. The Minister for Enterprise, Markets and Small Business, my hon. Friend the Member for Thirsk and Malton (Kevin Hollinrake), has been meeting them as well, and will be keeping a close eye on the operation of the scheme.

I reiterate the hon. Lady’s comments in thanking not just the right hon. Member for North Durham (Mr Jones) —as I did earlier—but my hon. Friend the Member for Sutton and Cheam (Paul Scully), Lord Arbuthnot, and others who have campaigned endlessly on this issue, including the BBC journalist Nick Wallis, who has played an important role in this long battle.

The hon. Lady asked about timescales. As I said in my statement, we aim to complete this part of the scheme by the end of 2023, or, I hope, sooner. The large number of documents that we are putting online this morning will enable people to get on with processing their applications before making formal applications early next year. Sir Wyn Williams, who is conducting the formal inquiry, will, I hope, be able to shed significant light on what went wrong and provide a set of recommendations to prevent it from happening again. I have no doubt that Members, certainly on this side of the House, will be anxiously awaiting those recommendations.

10/12/2022